What Lie Do You Tell Yourself Most Often About Your Betting?

[CoachTony_Bets]

Confession time: What's the lie you tell yourself most often about your betting?

Not the lie you tell OTHER people. The lie you tell YOURSELF.

I'll go first: "Betting makes me a better coach because I understand the game analytically."

Truth: Betting makes me a more distracted coach because I'm thinking about spreads during practice. The "analytical understanding" is just rationalization for time I'd rather spend analyzing than coaching.

What's your self-deception?

 

[SharpEddie47]

This is uncomfortable but here goes:

My lie: "I'm purely analytical. Emotion never factors into my betting."

Truth: I still avoid betting Cowboys games even when there's clear value because I can't handle the emotional conflict. I tell myself it's "discipline" but it's actually weakness.

Also, I get a satisfaction from being "right" that goes beyond the money. It's ego, not pure analysis.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Oh man okay:

My lie: "I'm getting better at this! I'm learning!"

Truth: I've been betting for 3 years and I do the EXACT same things. Same parlay mistakes. Same emotional bets. Same lack of tracking.

I tell myself each loss teaches me something but I don't actually change anything.

I'm not learning. I'm just repeating.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Brutal honesty time:

My lie: "I fade the public because it's mathematically optimal."

Truth: I fade the public because it makes me feel smarter than everyone else. The contrarian identity is ego-driven. Sometimes the public is right and I bet against them anyway just to maintain my "sharp" self-image.

Being contrarian is part of my personality, not just my strategy.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Oh f**k this is hard.

My lie: "Betting at the pub is social activity. It's about being with my mates."

Truth: I'm an alcoholic who uses "being social" as excuse to drink and bet. The mates are there but I'd bet alone too. The pub is just where I give myself permission to make bad decisions.

Also: "I can control my Wales betting."

I can't. I'm a degenerate when Wales play. Every single time.

 

[Klaus]

Uncomfortable admission:

My lie: "Emotion never enters my betting decisions. Pure systematic approach."

Truth: I feel satisfaction when Bayern wins even when I have no bet. I feel disappointment when they lose. I avoid betting against Bayern even when model suggests value.

I am not purely rational. I have constructed rational framework to mask emotional attachment.

Also: "Betting time doesn't affect family."

It does. Children notice my absence even when physically present.

 

[oli_sussex]

My lie: "I prefer solitude. Isolation is choice."

Truth: Betting consumed social life. Chose betting over relationships repeatedly. Now alone.

Tell myself it's preference. Actually consequence of choices.

Also: "I'm profitable therefore it's rational."

Profitability doesn't justify time cost or social cost. Profit is rationalization not justification.

 

[DublinDegen]

my lies are constant...

"ill set limits this week" - never do
"this is the last bet tonight" - never is
"i can control it" - i cant
"im just having bad variance" - no its addiction
"ill stop after i get back to even" - never get back to even
"this time will be different" - its never different
"im not that bad compared to others" - i am that bad
"i can quit anytime i want" - biggest lie of all

basically everything i tell myself about betting is a lie...

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Conor that's... painfully honest man.

 

[ThePuntingProf]

This is quite difficult to articulate but I shall attempt honesty: My lie is "I continue betting to honor Margaret's memory, we did this together therefore I continue our shared intellectual pursuit."

Truth: I continue betting because I do not know what else to do with my evenings and facing the emptiness without this activity is too painful, Margaret is gone and I use betting to avoid grieving properly, the analysis fills time that would otherwise force me to confront loneliness, I tell myself it honors her but actually it prevents me from moving forward, she would want me to have a life beyond spreadsheets but I hide in the numbers because they are safer than human connection.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Prof mate.

F**k.

That's the most honest thing I've ever read.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Prof

That's so sad but so brave to admit!

 

[SharpEddie47]

Prof that level of honesty is incredible.

And devastating.

 

[FadeThePublic]

This thread is destroying me.

Everyone being actually honest about their self-deceptions.

 

[Klaus]

Prof's admission notable for recognizing betting as grief avoidance mechanism.

Intellectual honesty about emotional dishonesty.

Courageous.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

My other big lie: "I have it under control. It doesn't affect my marriage."

Truth: My wife has made comments about my betting time. I dismiss them. I tell myself she doesn't understand but actually she understands perfectly - I'm choosing screens over her.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Tony mate that's real.

My version: "Bronwyn doesn't mind the betting."

She does mind. She's told me. I just choose not to hear it.

Tell myself she's fine with it because acknowledging she's not means I'd have to change.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Here's another one I tell myself:

"I'm setting a good example by being disciplined about tracking and bankroll management."

Truth: Nobody cares about my tracking. I'm not setting an example for anyone because I don't talk about betting with people who matter.

The "discipline" is just making gambling look respectable to myself.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Mine: "I'm betting small amounts so it's not a big deal."

Truth: $20-30 per bet adds up. I've lost $1,847. That's a lot of money for me.

I tell myself it's small to avoid confronting how much I've actually lost.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Another one: "Being limited at multiple books proves I'm sharp."

Truth: Being limited proves I was sharp enough to make books notice but not sharp enough to build serious wealth from it. It's a badge I wear for ego, not actual achievement.