Introducing ValueBetFactory - Your New Value Betting Tool! 🚀

[Arthur_VBF]

Hey everyone!

We’ve just rolled out 4 major Bet Tracker improvements:

• Bet Auto Settlement: bets are now automatically settled a few hours after the end of the match (around 3-4 hours). Results may be updated multiple times throughout the day. If a bet cannot be settled automatically, it will remain in Pending status until settled manually.
• Delete Multiple Bets/Update Bet Results at once: you can now select and delete multiple bets in one action, making cleanup and tracking much faster. To perform bulk actions, go to the Bet Tracker, select your bets, and use the actions menu in the top right corner of the table
• Filter results by sport: you can now filter your Bet Tracker by sport (e.g. Football, Rugby Union, Tennis, etc.). All statistics (profit, ROI, CLV, charts, etc.) automatically adjust based on the selected sport.
• Pinnacle odds evolution chart: you can now view the Pinnacle odds movement for each bet by clicking on the chart icon in the table.
  Odds data is available up to 7 days after the match, allowing you to review price movement and timing in detail.

As always, if you notice any issues or have feedback, let us know!

 

[Arthur_VBF]

Smart Betting Club just published their full independent review of ValueBetFactory, here's what they found

Hey everyone,

Sharing SBC's full independent review of ValueBetFactory from their March 2026 report.

For those unfamiliar with Smart Betting Club: they've been independently auditing betting services since 2007. No affiliate deals, no paid placements, no commercial relationship with the services they cover. Their methodology: raw bet data, statistical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations before issuing any rating. A Strong Buy from SBC is the closest thing to an independent audit certificate this industry has.

The dataset

5,391 unique bets logged by VBF users across all tools, bookmakers and sports since launch in May 2025. Not a snapshot, a complete picture of real user performance over 10 months.

The results

6.89% ROI at level staking. Seven consecutive profitable months. Lowest monthly ROI: 3.30%. Strongest: 14.91%. 371.25 points profit on a 100-point bank. The P/L curve shows a clean, steady climb with no meaningful turbulence.

CLV, the metric that actually matters

SBC stressed that ROI alone doesn't validate a service. The real test is Closing Line Value - are bets consistently beating the Pinnacle closing price?

61.01% of VBF bets achieved positive CLV. Bets with +CLV: +448.5 points profit. Bets with -CLV: -77.25 points. The edge is genuine and shows up exactly where it should.

Monte Carlo simulation

Strike rate: 43.42%
Historic max drawdown: 41 points
99th percentile drawdown: 95 points
Likelihood of a losing period: 2.06%
Risk reward ratio: 5.007 - EXCELLENT
p-value: 0.00017 (1 in 5,726 chance these results are luck)

Final SBC ratings

Returns: 4/5
Risk: 4.5/5
Transparency: 4/5
Customer Service: 5/5
Overall: 4.5/5 - STRONG BUY

Their conclusion: a well put together service that does exactly what it sets out to do, for bettors already comfortable with this style of betting and willing to put the work in, it's a solid option and a worthy addition to a betting portfolio.

You can read for free the full review here: https://valuebetfactory.com/betting-edu ... lub-review

Happy to answer any questions below.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

One of our users from Norway was $10k down in 193 bets. He kept betting and recovered. This is his story.


You've been betting since 2016. Tell us about your approach.

"I have a lot of experience at this point. I only bet football and basketball, including lower leagues, because I have a decent understanding of those sports and there's enough volume for good results."

How do you use VBF?

"I use the Dropping Odds alerts and manually check the games in the books I'm currently using. That's my whole process. The EV Scanner is great for beginners though, especially if you're not limited by the supported sportsbooks."

How has this year been going?

"January went well, running above EV. Then the first half of February was rough and after a small recovery up to bet 600, I went through an absolute horrible stretch. One of the worst I've experienced."

How bad was it exactly?

"On February 15, after 597 bets, my actual profit was +$2,822 with an expected profit of +$5,959. After bet 790, my expected profit was +$7,842 but my actual profit was -$7,453. So I lost $10,275 in 193 bets while making +$1,883 in expected profit. A difference of $12,158. Average bet size was $193, average odds around 2.34."

How long did it take to recover?

"Even after 1,709 bets, by the first week of April, I was still down over $2,000 and $18,500 below expected profit. For context, for someone who doesn't bet every day, 1,709 bets could be an entire year of action."

What do you think amplified the variance that much?

"I bet mostly on 3/10 to 7/10 liquidity leagues, which probably played a role. And I often bet the maximum the bookmaker allows, so it doesn't follow Kelly. I may bet the same amount for a 2% edge as a 10% edge simply because of the max bet allowed."

When did things start turning around?

"The second week of April. I won about $10k, half of it in one day. I already had a good day going, then I got a huge edge on the Portland vs LA game. Son was missing from the squad, I got in at the highest point and ended up with a 45% closing edge on that bet."

And where are you now?

"Still going up a tiny bit, but still at about half of the expected profit. I'm positive though and hope by the end of the year the lines will have converged."

What's your focus going into next season?

"Finding better books. That's a big part of betting at my level right now. I'll spend time digging into that before football and basketball season starts again."

The edge was there throughout. The process was sound. And yet $18,500 below expected profit after nearly 1,700 bets is a real outcome. Low-liquidity leagues and flat max-betting both push the variance wider. Neither invalidates the approach, but both are worth building into your expectations before you start.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

BOOKMAKER UPDATE 01/06/26

Polymarket x Kalshi x VBF

Both are now live on ValueBetFactory.

Receive alerts when their odds diverge from Pinnacle sharp lines.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

World Cup 2026 starts tomorrow. Full preview just went out in the newsletter. Here's the breakdown:

The outright market

• Spain and France lead, but Argentina @ 11.50/12.00 on the Exchange looks mispriced. 0.52 goals conceded per game under Scaloni, and 9 of their last 10 penalty shootouts won. In a knockout format this long, that shootout record matters.
• Spain @ 5.90/6.00 is a market price. Yamal and Nico Williams both enter the tournament short of match fitness.
• France @ 6.20/6.40 has the deepest squad in the tournament, but two real questions: can Mbappe and Dembele actually play together (Deschamps has never solved that cohabitation), and the fullbacks Theo and Koundé are a genuine weakness.

The underpriced factor: climate

Group games in Miami, Houston, Dallas and Guadalajara at 35+ degrees with high humidity. South American and CONCACAF teams have spent their careers in these conditions. European squads arrive off a season in cooler climates with heavy fixture congestion.

Dark horses to reach QF (Exchange prices)

Colombia 3.80, Mexico 4.40, Morocco 4.60. Three teams comfortable in the heat. Mexico effectively at home, Colombia were Copa America finalists in 2024, Morocco already proved they can grind past European sides.

104 matches in 39 days. You cannot monitor every line manually, VBF does it for you.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

VBF launched in May 2025. We track aggregated bet data across every user on the platform. Here's what year one looks like.​

The headline numbers:

• 26,362 bets settled
• $2,756,283 in total turnover
• $169,324 in profit
• 6.14% ROI
• 2.70% avg CLV vs Pinnacle closing line

The expected profit based on CLV alone was $95,002. Actual profit came in at $169,324, the community ran with positive variance on top of a real edge.

By sport:

• Football: 12,987 bets / 8.47% ROI / 2.69% avg CLV / $102,054 profit
• Tennis: 8,448 bets / 2.63% ROI / 2.57% avg CLV / $17,425 profit
• Basketball: 4,386 bets / 4.55% ROI / 2.94% avg CLV / $37,696 profit

Year two is already underway. More bookmakers, more sports, more markets. We keep going.

Happy to answer questions in the comments.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

BOOKMAKER UPDATE 30/06/26

Hey everyone!

We are pleased to announce that we have added Betify and Stake to the platform. Enjoy!

 

[Arthur_VBF]

June 2026 - Monthly Report

• 4,992 bets

• +$6,058 profit

• +1.7% ROI

• +2.3% Avg CLV Pinnacle

• +$9,461 expected profit

Football carried the month: 1,372 bets, +7.2% ROI, +$6,268 profit, +3.2% avg CLV.

Tennis: 2,964 bets, -3.6% ROI, -$7,594 profit. But +2.2% avg CLV and +$5,364 expected profit. Worst variance streak I've ever seen.

The community is in green, on to July!

 

[Arthur_VBF]

Weekly Community Report - Jun 29 to Jul 5

1,442 bets logged across all sports last week.

-$10,755 profit
-10.8% ROI
+0.6% Avg CLV Pinnacle
+$989 expected profit

The hardest week in recent memory.

Football drove almost the entire loss: 379 bets, -33.7% ROI, -$8,691 profit. Avg CLV was only +0.2%. This World Cup has produced very few upsets and our alerts tend to fire on underdogs.

Basketball: strongest CLV of the week at +7.7% but -$1,129 on 53 bets. Single bad night on a small sample. The edge was there, the sample wasn't big enough to show it.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

Hey!

Couple of new features just shipped. Here's what's live:

Community Statistics and Leaderboard

A brand-new page showing platform-wide performance, plus a leaderboard ranking the top bettors by ROI, CLV and profit. See how the community is doing and where you stand. Everything stays anonymous.

Community Statistics | ValueBetFactory

See the top sports bettors ranked by ROI, CLV and profit. Live platform stats across football, tennis, basketball and more, over any date range you choose.

valuebetfactory.com

Community chart: filter by sport and by date

On the Community Statistics page, you can now filter the cumulative profit chart by sport and by date range. Want to see how the community has performed on football over the last month? Or how tennis CLV has tracked since the start of the year? It's all there, filterable in a few clicks.

Profile and leaderboard name

You can now set the name you appear under on the leaderboard from your Profile page.

My Profile

valuebetfactory.com

Variance Indicator on your Bet Tracker

Your Bet Tracker now includes a Variance Indicator. It compares your actual profit against the profit expected from the closing line (CLV), so you can tell whether a winning or losing streak comes from your edge or just from variance. We also added a date filter so you can check your variance over the last week, last month and more.

Enjoy guys!

 

[Arthur_VBF]

We promised a surprise for the Tour de France. Here it is.

VBF Tour de France 2026 Live Tracker, free, nothing to install.

It shows the peloton split into groups with real-time time gaps. Most useful on mountain/breakaway stages when TV cameras are on the front group and you have no idea where everyone else is.

Ideal for betting T3, T6 or T10 markets.

How it works:

• 1. Open racecenter.letour.fr/en/ during a live stage
• 2. Open your browser console: F12 on Windows or Cmd + Option + J on Mac, or right-click anywhere on the page, choose Inspect, then open the Console tab.
• 3. Paste the script

Get the script here: ValueBetFactory · Tour de France 2026 Live Tracker