FadeThePublic
Market Sharp
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2024
- Messages
- 548
- Reaction score
- 11
- Points
- 18
The value betting service proposition is specific and worth examining honestly.
Services like Trademate, RebelBetting, OddsJam: they compare prices across operators against a benchmark price. Typically Pinnacle or the exchange. If a soft book has a price significantly above the benchmark, they flag it as value.
The theoretical foundation: Pinnacle is the most efficient price available. Anything above Pinnacle represents genuine positive expected value. Systematically betting prices above the efficient market generates positive expected value over time.
The CLV thread established that beating the closing line is the best available proxy for genuine edge.
The value betting service is mechanical CLV generation. You're not finding the value through analysis. You're finding it through price comparison.
The question: is mechanically exploiting price discrepancies the same as having genuine analytical edge. Or is it a different activity dressed in the same language.
And the practical question everyone asks and nobody answers honestly: after the accounts are restricted, does the economics actually work.
Services like Trademate, RebelBetting, OddsJam: they compare prices across operators against a benchmark price. Typically Pinnacle or the exchange. If a soft book has a price significantly above the benchmark, they flag it as value.
The theoretical foundation: Pinnacle is the most efficient price available. Anything above Pinnacle represents genuine positive expected value. Systematically betting prices above the efficient market generates positive expected value over time.
The CLV thread established that beating the closing line is the best available proxy for genuine edge.
The value betting service is mechanical CLV generation. You're not finding the value through analysis. You're finding it through price comparison.
The question: is mechanically exploiting price discrepancies the same as having genuine analytical edge. Or is it a different activity dressed in the same language.
And the practical question everyone asks and nobody answers honestly: after the accounts are restricted, does the economics actually work.
