Introducing ValueBetFactory - Your New Value Betting Tool! 🚀

[Arthur_VBF]

Hi everyone!

I wanted to share ValueBetFactory, a fresh value betting service that I think many of you might find helpful. Our goal is to make value betting as easy and efficient as possible. We’re still in the early stages and looking to grow with the help of feedback from the betting community.

So, what do we offer?

• Real-Time Value Bets via Telegram: Receive value bet alerts directly through our Telegram channel. Our service is designed to be completely mobile-friendly, so you can stay up-to-date and bet on the go.
• Sharp Bookie Reference: We use Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange as sharp bookie references to ensure our value bets are based on highly accurate and reliable odds.
• Lightning-Fast Scanning: We pride ourselves on a super-fast scanning speed to ensure you never miss an opportunity.
• Customizable Alerts: You can tailor the alerts to your preferences—choose your markets, bookies, min/max odds, Pinnacle minimum limits, and the expected value (%) that suits your strategy.
• Closing Value Alert: Get notified if a bet has hit the closing value 5min before kick-off, helping you better manage your bets.
• Integrated Bet Tracking: Use the simple /mybets command in Telegram to track your bets automatically, right within the app.

Since we’re just launching, we’re eager to hear feedback from users to help us improve and perfect the platform. We’re all about building something genuinely useful for the betting community, and your insights would be invaluable to us!

Feel free to give it a try, and let us know what you think. Any questions, suggestions, or issues? We're all ears.

Thanks for reading and good luck on your bets!

Cheers,

Arthur from the ValueBetFactory Team

 

[Arthur_VBF]

Hi everyone!

Following up on our initial post, I wanted to share an update on the soft bookies we’re currently supporting on ValueBetFactory. Here’s the list of available soft bookies where you can start placing your value bets right away:

• Betano
• Bet MGM
• Coral
• Ladbrokes
• Paddy Power
• Skybet
• Unibet
• William Hill

We’re also working hard to add bet365 to our platform very soon, so stay tuned!

If there’s a specific bookie you’d like to see included, feel free to reach out! We’re happy to consider adding new bookmakers based on user requests to ensure our platform fits your needs as best as possible.

As always, we appreciate your feedback and look forward to making ValueBetFactory even better with your help!

Cheers,

Arthur from the ValueBetFactory Team

 

[Arthur_VBF]

Why Use Betfair Exchange as a Sharp Bookie?

At ValueBetFactory, our goal is to identify and exploit discrepancies in the odds offered by various bookmakers. While Pinnacle is often regarded as the sharpest bookmaker, Betfair Exchange plays a crucial role in our value betting strategy. Here’s why Betfair is essential:

1. True Fair Odds: Betfair offers odds without the traditional bookmaker's margin, providing a clearer view of true market value based on supply and demand.
2. Market Efficiency: Operating on a peer-to-peer model, Betfair reflects the collective wisdom of numerous bettors, making its odds highly accurate.
3. Market Reflection: Betfair's odds are shaped by informed bettors, ensuring they represent the true probabilities of outcomes more accurately than traditional bookmakers.
4. Comparing Against the Best: By using both Betfair and Pinnacle, we can identify a broader range of value bets, taking advantage of discrepancies in the odds.
5. Transparency and Flexibility: Unlike traditional bookmakers, Betfair welcomes winners, making it a sustainable platform for long-term betting.
6. Early Market Opening: Betfair often opens markets earlier than Pinnacle, allowing bettors to spot unique value opportunities before the competition.
7. Diversification of Sharp Sources: Including Betfair in our strategy diversifies our approach and minimizes the risk of missing out on valuable bets.

In conclusion, incorporating Betfair Exchange into our value betting service is essential for maximizing profitable betting opportunities. By comparing odds from both Betfair and Pinnacle, we help you identify value bets and improve your chances of long-term success.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

Understanding Your Telegram Betting Alert

This guide will help you read and maximize our Telegram betting alerts. Here’s a breakdown of a typical alert, which includes all the key information for identifying value bets:

LaLiga: the alert starts by identifying the competition. In this case, it's LaLiga

26/09 18:00: Data and hour of kick-off

️ Las Palmas - Real Betis Sport (displayed by the emoji) and event.

Bet: Las Palmas : the selection to pick.

Market: 1X2: market where the value is detected. Here, it's a 1X2 market, which means you are betting on the outcome of the match (1 for home win, X for draw, 2 for away win).

Soft bookmaker where to take the value and the odd offered (here Betano 3.55, Skybet 3.25, WilliamHill, 3.25).
Betfair EV%, Pinnacle EV%: expected value (EV) of the bet compared to the reference bookmakers (also called sharp bookmakers). More on how we calculate EV% here.

Betfair Exchange Odds: current odds on Betfair Exchange (back and lay odds).

Total Matched Matched Liquidity on Betfair Exchange

Pinnacle Fair Odds: fair odds (or no-vig odds) from Pinnacle.

Pinnacle Odds: actual odds offered by Pinnacle.

Pinnacle Margin: margin (or vig) applied on the market by Pinnacle. More on how to calculate the margin applied here.

Pinnacle Limit: maximum amount you can bet on this market with Pinnacle.

Alert number: unique identifier for the alert.
The alert number allows you to easily track and revisit your previous value bets. When you click on "I've taken it" (see below), this unique alert number is registered and helps you identify the specific bet you placed in the past. This feature is particularly useful for keeping a record of your betting history and not place a bet twice in case of doubt.

Below is an explanation of each option available when you've clicked on Options:

I've taken it : it marks the alert as a bet you’ve placed. This action is recorded in your history, making it easy to track which value bets you’ve taken. The alert number associated with the bet allows you to look up this specific bet later for review or analysis. This will add automatically the closing alert (closing alert explained below).

Mute : mute notifications for this specific outcome. For example, if you mute a draw, you'll continue receiving notifications for home and away selections.

Add Closing Alert: set up a notification to receive the odds 5min before the event starts. This ensures you can have the Closing Line Value. and decide if you want to keep the bet or cash out if it is no longer value.

Already bet?: if you’ve already placed a bet based on this alert and clicked on "I've taken it ", you can click this button to receive the alert number that you’ve taken action, preventing duplicate bets for the same alert.

Close Options: close the options menu.

 

[kakatobilajj]

ValueBetFactory is a value betting service that helps users identify and place bets where bookmakers have set odds higher than the actual probability of an outcome. It offers real-time alerts via Telegram, fast scanning of betPro markets, and customizable notifications based on user preferences. By leveraging sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle for accurate odds, ValueBetFactory aims to improve profitability for bettors who use value betting strategies.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

What is Expected Value (EV) and Why It’s Important for Value Betting

Expected Value (EV) is a key concept in sports betting that helps you predict whether a bet is profitable in the long run. It’s the average amount you can expect to win or lose if you placed the same bet many times. Understanding EV allows you to find value bets, where the chances of winning are better than what the odds suggest.

Positive vs. Negative EV

• Positive EV (EV+) means the bet is profitable over time.
• Negative EV (EV-) means the bet will likely lose money in the long run.

How to Calculate Expected Value
The formula for EV is simple:

• (Probability of Winning) × (Amount Won) − (Probability of Losing) × (Amount Lost)

For example, if you bet £10 on Tottenham to win at odds of 4.75, the Expected Value (EV) is £2.08. This means that, on average, you could win £2.08 for every £10 bet placed on this outcome over time.

Why Positive EV is Important
You should always aim to place bets with Positive EV. These are the bets where your chances of winning are better than what the odds from the bookmaker suggest, making them profitable in the long term.

How to Find Value Bets
Look for bets before the bookmakers adjust their odds (for example, when there's breaking news like an injury). Using tools like ValueBetFactory to compare odds across multiple bookmakers can also help you spot value bets.

Using an EV Calculator
An EV Calculator is a handy tool that can quickly show you if a bet has positive EV, helping you make smarter betting decisions.

In Summary
Expected Value helps you think beyond single bets and focus on long-term success. It's all about making data-driven decisions and improving your betting strategy over time by finding bets that offer value. The more you use EV, the better your results will be in the long run.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

ValueBetFactory is a value betting service that helps users identify and place bets where bookmakers have set odds higher than the actual probability of an outcome. It offers real-time alerts via Telegram, fast scanning of betPro markets, and customizable notifications based on user preferences. By leveraging sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle for accurate odds, ValueBetFactory aims to improve profitability for bettors who use value betting strategies.

We don't scan betPro mate. Your site looks quite scammy

 

[Arthur_VBF]

Understanding the Kelly Criterion for Betting Success

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps optimize bet sizes in sports betting. Designed to maximize long-term profits while minimizing the risk of going bankrupt, it calculates the ideal percentage of your bankroll to wager based on the probability of winning and the odds offered.

The formula is simple:

Kelly% = ((B x P) - Q) / B

Where:

• B is the odds minus 1
• P is your estimated probability of winning
• Q is the probability of losing

For example, if you believe a bet has a 40% chance of winning and the odds are 3.00, the formula suggests wagering 10% of your bankroll.

Pros:

• Maximizes returns by growing your bankroll over time.
• Data-driven, taking emotions out of betting.

Cons:

• Accuracy is key; wrong probability estimates hurt your results.
• Discipline is a must; deviation can be costly.

For those wary of risk, Fractional Kelly Betting lets you bet a portion of the recommended amount to reduce volatility.

In summary, the Kelly Criterion is a solid bet-sizing strategy, but it works best when combined with accurate probability estimates, research, and strict bankroll management.

 

[Arthur_VBF]

As we said in the previous post, the Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula developed to determine the optimal bet size based on the probability of winning and the odds offered. This method helps grow your bankroll over time while minimizing the risk of losses. Essentially, it tells you to bet more when your advantage over the bookmaker is higher, and less when it's lower.

Using our Kelly Criterion Calculator is simple. You just input the bookmaker's odds, your own estimated odds, set a Kelly multiplier to adjust risk, and enter your bankroll size. The calculator will then provide the ideal bet size to help you maximize potential returns while managing risk.

This tool takes the hassle out of manual calculations and ensures your betting decisions are data-driven and efficient. Check it out and start betting smarter!

 

[Arthur_VBF]

This is the kind of values you can expect from our tool:

Only at ValueBetFactory!

 

[Arthur_VBF]

Pinnacle odds for the Premier League haven't been released yet, but we're still receiving alerts when compared to the Exchange.

This typically gives us more time to place these bets since the bookmaker doesn't adjust the odds immediately!

Come register for free at ValueBetFactory!