Daily Tennis & Football.

[betrader]

Great result for last nights match with a nice typical late run of goals from Midtjylland securing the any other home win market at very decent odds and improved prices for Over 2.5 bettors/traders on both matches with a brief pricing summary in my last post.
Lots of matches on today but nothing really standing out and always a little awkward when the new season gets underway.
I will be using reduced stakes on more likely markets and if I miss better priced in-play opportunities then so be it.
League Two isn't really my main bag as similar to the Belgian leagues can often throw up some odd results but worth a look today.

15:00 GMT - Oldham vs Newport County. Final Score: 0 - 1.
Interesting stat with Oldham having won the last 4 out of 5 H2H's against Newport but are outsiders today and at decent exchange odds of 3.20 may be worth taking on. The last 3 of those H2H's have been decent scoring so the Over 2.5 market currently at around 2.10 looks like a fair target market. I will cover the match odds market and look for a better price deals on Over 1.5 and 2.5 markets which could prove worthwhile if we see any later goal action.

15:00 GMT - Carlisle vs Colchester. Final Score: 0 - 0.
Carlisle have been scoring well in recent club friendlies but the general H2H shows that 4 out of 5 of the last played matches have ended in at least 3 goals with a minimum of 2 and so we could see some action. Carlisle go off as favourites but both teams scoring wouldn't be a surprise and could produce a few price swings if we do see some action.
The Over 2.5 market currently priced at around 2.40 clearly isn't expecting many goals but based on past results the Over 1.5 and 2.5 markets may prove vulnerable and the market layers will no doubt be keen to quickly push those prices up during play.

17:30 GMT - Sint Truiden vs Zulte-Waragem. Final Score: 1 - 3.
Regular 3 goals on the H2H could see the Over 2.5 market currently at a best price of 1.77 on the exchanges succeed but one to keep your eye on for potential later opportunities at better prices. Sint Truiden go off as favourites for this one but goals from both sides are a possibility with a decent showing on the last five H2H results.

The first two matches didn't perform at all well with just the one late goal from Newport but not too bad on reduced stakes took a bit of a hit . Much better value to be had on the final match prevailed with a nice late run with Over 2.5 market examples touching highs of 5.10 and 4.0 before winning and the Over 1.5 out of interest touched 2.25 with both teams scoring in the end on the 90th minute for Truiden to make it 1 - 3.

Betrader.

 

[betrader]

16:30 GMT - KuPS vs Lahti. Final Score: 2 - 2.
The last 5 out of 5 H2H's backed up by the last 5 league wins for Kups shows a strong home team form advantage and a good potential for the Over 2.5 market which is priced at a seemingly generous 2.18 on the exchanges and may offer a good deal for s.p betting.
The market is clearly not expecting goals but at least 3 of the 5 last H2H matches show a strong one sided scoring position with 3,4 and 5 goals with the last played H2H in 2021, where KuPS won 4 - 2 on the road.
This one sided goal stat leads to some potential for the correct score 'any other home win' market which is currently at 11.50 on BF.
I will back the AOHW market as cover and then look towards more likely Over 1.5 and 2.5 markets at better prices if we get a slower played match.

Busy match with the Over 2.5 market winning in just 15 minutes for S.P bettors and the second goal for KuPS creating a 9 point price swing for the any other home win market into a low of 2.30 which equated to a potential 400% or 4 point hedged profit at that stage. Plenty of shots on target for KuPS but it was Lahti that levelled up the score with far fewer goal attempts.
I took some early profit on balance and used a little to back KuPS for the bigger match odds at 3.50 which didn't work out with no further goals but all in all we found some goals that worked nicely on various different markets and not a bad day overall for my daily short list of matches.


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[betrader]

10:00 am UK. - Kobe vs Kashiwa. Final Score: 1 - 2.
Potential home goals here with decent recent form but noted is Kashiwa who have won 3 out of the last 5 H2H's may offer up some goal response and/or potential resistance before we see a breakthrough.
4 out of the last 5 H2H's have gone over 2.5 goals and today the Over 2.5 market looks like a reasonably priced target for S.P Bettors and currently priced at 2.16 on the BF Exchanges. The price clearly indicates the market is expecting a slower match and it has been noted that one of the last 5 H2H's ended 1 - 0 at home to Kobe.
Some of the played H2H matches have gone to five or more goals and so the Over 4.5 market at 9.0 or best price could offer some early cover and I will be looking for better prices later for the Over 1.5 and 2.5 markets.

Update: Great late scoring match with Over 1.5 markets touching very nice highs of 5.20 and winning within 5 minutes and the Over 2.5 touched highs of 20.0, 6.60 and 10.0 and found ultimate betting success with a late goal from Kashiwa.
Not enough action to actuate the Over 4.5 market but provided useful background cover and the first half in-play stats showed very little potential but picked up nicely in the second half.

19:00 UK. Tennis ATP Toronto - Duckworth (3.30) vs Fritz (1.36)
Duckworth won the only H2H back in 2016 so that is old form and represents a lower ranking today of 80 vs 42 but the psychological aspect of that win can often play a role in the outcome, considering other current factors.
Fritz has lost his last two matches in Atlanta and Washington and so this may offer Duckworth a way in on recent form. Duckworth has two qualifying match wins here which can always provide a surface condition advantage against an opponent who may be running out of steam.
I am aware that Duckworth's price could get away from us as there is no clear cut form advantage, but at 3.30 he is worth a bet for a trade.
Note the prices/liquidity are a little slim and may improve nearer the start - Start times can vary.

Update: Duckworth won the match in straight sets - He was broken in set one up to a high of 6.20 and immediately broke back and won the first set on a tie-break into a low of 1.40. Duckworth achieved a double break in set 2 to win the match 7 - 6, 6 - 3.

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[betrader]

Decent results updated for yesterdays football and tennis matches continue to show that market value can regularly increase many many times on the exchanges and quite often for the most basic of goal/match prediction.

19:45 UK. EFL Cup - Hull vs Wigan. Final Score: 1 - 1.
Reduced stakes for me on cup matches but this one has a great H2H giving 4, 5, 8, 4 and 3 goals in the last five matches with both teams in reasonable enough recent scoring form and Hull top of the Championship with a recent 4 - 1 win over Preston.
We could see a few goals for this match and both teams scoring seems likely which may unsettle the match odds markets.
The Over 2.5 market is priced around 1.74 on the exchanges but a more tempting entry based on the H2H of nearly 5 goals per game is backing the Over 4.5 market currently at around 5.50.
If we get some time lapse we may see some better prices on more likely Over 1.5 and 2.5 markets nearer half time and beyond.

The in-play stats were showing a slower first half and both teams scored in the end with goals at 50 and 54 minutes.
The Over 1.5 market was at a high of 2.56 and the Over 2.5 market touched highs of 6.60 into lows of 1.47 but no momentum for our early cover on the Over 4.5 market, which proportionally at better odds uses a lesser stake than the target goal markets.

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[Yanek]

Футбол смотрят всегда.