Daily Tennis & Football.

[estoupedrado]

Hello, since betfair it not possible on every country have u know good alternatives?

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

Time to get back into it after a decent break away and I have been considering setting up a dedicated thread just for my betting/accumulators to keep those separate and just keep this one more for the sports trading side of things. I will look to get that thread up and running for next week.
In the meantime we have some Euro qualifying matches for today with some potential for the Over 2.5 markets.

16:00 - Czech Republic U21 (2.36) vs Greece U21 (3.15).
Good chance of seeing some goals for this one and the match odds are fairly open and both teams scoring is not out of the question.
H2H's have seen regular 2 - 3 goals so later better value Over 1.5's nearer 2.0 would be worth looking at and initially the Over 2.5's near 2.0 could provide some reasonable betting/trading value.
Final Score: 1 - 1. Goal Times: 45+2, 76 mins.
Over 1.5 highs: 2.30 - 2.02 won. Over 2.5 highs: 5.30 - 2.30 - 7.20 - 2.20 @ G2.

17:00 - Denmark U21 (1.39) vs Northern Ireland U21 (8.40).
3 x H2H's from 2011 - 2013 saw Denmark score at least 3 goals (1-4, 3-0, 0-3) and win so naturally they are shorter odds (1.39 - 1.43) to take the match and more recent scoring form could see off a potentially vulnerable Over 2.5 market currently at 1.80.
Trading wise the Over 4.5 market at 5.0 - 6.0 could offer some early cover at a decent price for anyone to score but if it does run slower then we may see a much better price as the Over 2.5 starts to drift out.
Final Score: 2 - 1. Goal Times: 30, 57, 86 mins.
Over 2.5 highs: 3.20/2.80/3.75 won. Over 4.5 - Nothing lower than sp.

19:45 - Austria (1.42) vs Israel (8.60).
This looks like a good opportunity for Austria and we could see a few goals. Israel beat Austria last time out in March 4 - 2 but are struggling a little at the moment so on that basis we could see a busier match and a good handful of goals if Austria can make an earlier breakthrough.
The Over 2.5 market at 1.73 looks vulnerable for betting but initially I will back the Over 4.5 at 5.40 - 6.0 and see how it looks for later more likely 2 - 3 goals markets.
Final Score: 3 - 1. Goal Times: 34, 41, 56, 88 mins.
Over 2.5 highs: 3.10 won. Over 4.5 @ 16.0 - 2.56 @ G3 - 38.0 - 5.40 @ G4.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[Csori01]

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

Interesting plays for yesterday and quite difficult to judge for the bigger goals markets (for the Euros) where the goal momentum and higher scoring is often in question, and for our Over 4.5 cover for example, I generally use a 1/4 my normal stake that I would use for say the O1.5 & O2.5's so you get an idea of my general percentage level on my staking.
At the bigger prices on offer those types of market can cover early goal and early first half goals in case we cannot find that better price for the more obvious markets and so the strategy acts like a two pronged attack and can offer a nice little extra bonus in waiting.
Slightly tougher match for England tonight which could run tighter on goals on the road, so one to keep your eye on for better prices on more likely 2 - 3 goal markets but nothing of any particular value at a glance.
I will have a smaller token back bet on the C.S - Any Other Away Win market at 8.60 offering some cover for England goals and see how the stats look in-play for later trades.

19:45 - Iceland (7.40) vs France (1.56)
Strong H2H showing a regular 4 - 6 goals but with France on the road we could see a tighter match but goals are not out of the question as are both teams scoring so we could see some potential match odds swings regardless of the match odds prices.
The Over 2.5 market has a balanced market view near 2.0 but I think it could prove vulnerable and worth backing that from the start and then topping that O2.5 up at 4.0 at any stage during the match.
Later options are to back the Over 1.5 market if you see 3.0 at any stage which could cover a much later scoring scenario.
Final Score: 0 - 1. Goal Times: 66 mins.
Over 1.5: 4.20 - 1.75 lost. Over 2.5: 15.50 - 4.80 lost.

19:45 - Portugal (1.05) vs Luxemborg (90.0)
The H2H has shown at least 3 goals for most matches and with recent scoring form of Portugal we will have to cover a bigger market as the Over 2.5 for this one is naturally low around the 1.30 mark in expectation.
I will initially back the Over 5.5 market around 5.0 as general goal cover and use a slightly bigger than normal stake as we could see a run of early goals from the home team which means we may not get a good chance of seeing the O2.5 at a better price.
Back the Over 2.5 market at 2.0 at any stage of the match and top that price up at 3.50 at any stage during the match.
Final Score: 3 - 0. Goal Times: 16, 65, 89 mins.
Over 5.5: Low 4.20. Over 2.5 highs: 2.70 - 4.80 won.

In the meantime many thanks to those that have taken the time and posted a thumbs up/like and good luck.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

A lower bunch of average scorers for last nights plays and England managed to concede a late goal which based on the general prediction the Over 2.5 market recovered from 2 early goals to a nice high of 3.30 as the outsiders scored the winning goal. The early England goal saw the AOAW market half in price to a low of 4.30 which sat there as 4 point spread free bet for the remainder of the match; but when you consider that was valued at 100% roi after just one goal, that offered better value than the O2.5 from the start which requires 3 goals.
The stats for the France match were tight and the only goal we saw was a penalty which moved the Over 1.5 which I just hedged that to go some way in covering my failed position on the Over 2.5 so more of loss management rather than being confident of the more goals gamble.
Portugal scored a typical H2H type 3 goals and similar to England the Over 2.5 did creep up nicely on a couple of occasions above our price range and went onto win, and again shows how more likely markets can creep up in price well above their starting odds.
I am a little bit OCD aka WOI 'well organised and interested' so I record all the prices as part of my longer term value strategy development and a good habit to get into for any aspiring traders out there.

19:45 - Italy (1.22) vs Greece (22.0)
Italy beat Greece in their last H2H match 3 - 0 on the road and are in decent winning form at the moment.
The general H2H is 2 - 3 goals but I think we could see a more positive run tonight against a slightly lack lustre Greece.
Back the Over 2.5 market at 1.84 or best price and top up that back bet if you see 3.50 at any stage during the match.
I will also have a back bet on the C.S - Any other home win market at 4.60 - 4.80 to cover a potential Italy goal run.
Final Score: 2 - 0. Goal Times: 63, 78 mins.
AOHW @ 65.0 - 29.0 - 110.0 - 26.0 @ G2. Over 2.5: 11.0 - 4.0 - 10.0 - 2.60

19:45 - Norway (5.90) vs Spain (1.70)
Over 2.5 goals looks likely for this match based on the H2H and recent performances from Spain but it has the ability to run slower on the away leg.
Back the Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 or best price and top up that back bet at 3.50 at any stage during the match.
Further options for a slower match are to back the Over 1.5 market at 3.0 at any stage if it creeps up in price.
Final Score: 1 - 1. Goal Times: 47, 90+4 mins.
Over 2.5: 5.60 - 2.30 - 110.0 - 26.0. Over 1.5: 2.30 - 1.30 - 5.70 won.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

Match Summary: It would have been nice to see the third goal and plenty of goal chances from Poland but again it shows where you can find decent value from just a couple of goals with the Over 1.5 this time touching 8.0 before the first goal and winning shortly afterwards so having started around 1.30/1.40 again we are seeing vastly improved value over the starting prices.
Other similar markets at that stage are the Over 0.5 touched 2.08 and won and those typically will be at even money from 70 - 80 mins just for one goal. Match odds for Poland 1.50's drifted to 2.84 and won and the Over 2.5 market touched highs of 36.0 into 2.80 @ G2. The any other home win market was dead in the water price-wise but the strategy considers that those two goals and more could have happened in the first half so it was worth the cover but for the record it was matched as high as 180.0 - 260.0 into a low of 22.0 after the second goal.

19:45 - Poland (1.53) vs North Macedonia (7.40)
This looks like a good opportunity for Poland and we could see 2 - 4 goals on this one but as with many of the Euro matches they often run slower and tighter on goals but can provide some decent value on more likely markets.
Older home H2H's have seen scorlines of 4 - 1 and 3 - 0 so we could get a similar serving tonight, so I will initially back the C.S Any other home win market at 7.80 - 8.20 to cover that one sided goal scenario with a view to reducing your risk if we see earlier goals.
The Over 2.5 market for any goals at 1.85 looks like it may topple for betting purposes but as I have already covered a market from the start I think if we can get 2.0 on the Over 1.5 market at any stage that would be worth a go and I would look to top that up at 3.0 at any stage to improve the value.
Final Score: 2 - 0. Goal Times: 74, 80 mins.
Over 1.5 market: 8.0 -2.30 - 2.60 - Won. AOHW: No show.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

Summary: We got lucky with the new betting thread with 2 out of 2 on our first day and both matched at our prices before any goals went in.
The France match went tighter and achieved a whopping high of 7.80 on that basic Over 1.5 and won but they lost the match eventually from a low of 1.08 as Turkey got the later equalizer but France were dominant on the stats for the best part of the match.
Gracheva took her match without too much problem and more of an accumulator type of price and Gojowczyk in his match took the first set and touched a low of 1.20 in that match but lost out in 3 sets but for the bet both were matched at 3.0 and that produces a 1 point reward for a 1 point risk. Mannarino was under pressure but soon got it back on track and won the match from a high of 3.90.
Romania replicated their 3 - 0 success and we got a nice swing for the C.S market (200 - 300% roi) and a winner for the Over 1.5 market offering much better value than the starting price so all in all a reasonable days play.

Tennis - WTA Moscow - 11:00 - Gatto-Monticone (3.05) vs Gracheva (1.45)
Good chance for the favourite here with good recent form and a higher ranking but may come under some pressure for a better price and twice the value at 1.90 would offer a better entry. I would top up that back bet if she loses the first set.
No H2H for this one and noted that Gatto has beaten a similarly ranked player in her first qualifier so this is where we may see some pressure.
Result: Gracheva won in 2 sets. Market Moves: 1.62 - 1.06 - 1.20 - 1.01.

Tennis - ATP Antwerp - 16:00 - Pella (1.57) vs Gojowczyk (2.68)
Not the best of matches to pick a winner because both players are out of form and the H2H's go to the outsider 2 - 1 with 2 of those matches running to 3 sets so Gojowczyk is not without chance but we could see a few swings on this one.
I am working on a strategy where on the closer matches I look to back both players at higher odds which if both are matched guarantees a profit but with only a 1 point risk. Here I will back both players at 3.0 using a 1 point level stake risk on each player.
Result: Pella wins in 3 sets. Both players matched at 3.0.

Tennis - ATP Moscow - 18:00 - Mannarino (1.84) vs Dzumhur (2.12)
Mannarino has won 3 out of 4 of the H2H's with the most recent win in China and is the higher ranked player at 44 vs 93.
Dzumhur has won both qualifiers this week whereas Mannarino has seen a slight dip in form since and hence the reason why he is at the price he is at today, and may come under some pressure.
I think Mannarino should take this (on past form) but I think we could see a few swings on route if Dzumhur is up to the challenge.
3 sets is not out of the question but one to keep an eye on the point to points (Flashscores) to see who's service game is holding up.
Result: Mannarino wins in 2 sets. Market High: 3.90.

Football - 18:30 - Romania U21 (1.41) vs Northern Ireland U21 (8.60)
Only the one H2H back in 2006 and Romania won that at home 3 - 0. Romania has some decent recent scoring form and beat Ukraine 3 - 0 last time out so I think their match odds are justified and they should take the win.
The interesting part of that recent 3 - 0 win is they all came at 75 minutes onwards which saw very nice prices for Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 markets which we have been more than familiar with over the past couple of days.
The Over 2.5 market at 1.84 looks vulnerable but based on those 3 - 0 scorelines I will initially back the C.S Any other home win market at 5.8 - 8.0 as early/one-sided goal cover.
Back the Over 1.5 market 2.0 and top that up at 3.0 at any stage during the match.
Final Score: 3 - 0. Goal Times: 48, 59, 67 mins.
AOHW market: 26.0 high - 1.77 low @ G3. Over 1.5 market: 2.30 high & won.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

Summary: Lottner eventually won her tennis match in 3 sets but it was Korpatsch that took the first set and into a low of 1.26 which offered something for traders and the swings that we required for the back both players strategy but by game 7 of the first set both players had been matched at 3.0 for a guaranteed 1 point profit with Korpatsch spiking up early to 3.30 and Lottner following as she started losing the first set.
Our other tennis match was cancelled but the football worked out nicely with a steady stream of goals from England and that AOHW market was at 1.01 by half time from a high of 6.80 so always worth hedging that out for 1% guaranteed insurance rather than letting it run.
Kohlschreiber won his match from a high of 2.30 for the betting thread but although the Over 1.5 for England did win it only reached a high of 1.24.

Tennis - WTA Luxembourg - 13:00 - A. Lottner (1.76) vs T. Korpatsch (2.30)
Both H2H's have been won by Korpatsch on clay back in 2018 and is the higher ranked player. Lottner has the benefit of playing on this particular surface and has come through 3 qualifiers so far so this one could run closer and we could see a few swings on price.
Trading wise it is tempting to back Korpatsch from the start and it is an option but I will use this example to try out the betting method I will back both players at 3.0 for a 1 point risk and see if we can get some price swings on a potentially tighter match.
Result: Lottner wins in 3 sets. Korpatsch won S1 - market low: 1.26.
Both players matched at 3.0 during set one for a guaranteed 1 point profit.

Tennis - ATP Stockholm - 15:00 - T. Paul (1.56) vs P. Andujar (2.70).
Great recent form from Paul and is probably the better player on this particular surface. Paul has had some fitness issues but they have never played each other which is always a reduced staking situation for me, but it can however often show advantage to higher ranked players.
I think we could see some pressure from Andujar who is the better rated player and I will have a smaller back bet on him from the start with a view to reduce/remove risk if he goes ahead - As an example 1.70 would initially lock in a 100% free bet.
Worth laying any player for a smaller stake again if you see 1.10 - 1.15. If Paul gets off to a good start you may see that price early.
Match Cancelled - No Result.

Football - 19:45 - England U21 (1.45) vs Austria U21 (8.20)
A good chance here for England to secure a win and Austria are scoring well of late so this one could run a bit tighter/slower and we may see some better value later on as we have been all week and at least 2 - 3 goals look fairly typical on the much older H2H's and more recent scoring form.
Not a lot of start value for Over 2.5's @ 1.57 and a difficult one to pitch when any of the goals will arrive but an early one is not out of the question.
I will back the C.S Any Other Home Win market at 5.0 - 5.9 for a smaller stake as early goal cover simply because it outstrips the match odds home win market in terms of value even after just one earlier goal you would see much better than a 45% roi.
I will look to back the Over 2.5 market at 3.0 at any stage of the match and I will top that up at 5.0 if there is none or just one goal in already.
Final Score: 5 - 1. Goal Times: 12, 28, 39, 45+1, 66, 79 mins.
Over 2.5 market: 1.70 high & won. AOHW market: 6.80 high & won.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

Summary: A couple of decent matches today with a nice turnaround for Rosol back into level the sets after Lajovic got off to a flier and the low of 1.81 would have produced a decent profit even from the secondary 5.0 on offer but actually touched a high of 55.0 before touching that low.
Kohlschreiber was working well as outsider for us and into a low of around 1.40 after winning the first set and he actually had the match sewn up with 2 match points, touching into a low of 1.01/02 at one point but up to a high of 12.50 as he was broken and back into under even money later on. That move put Khachanov into the recommended 1.09/10 cheeky lay position and he was up to 1.80 in super quick time on the S3 tie-break but managed to recover nicely and went onto win the match in 3 sets from a very nice high price.
Great profit potential on both matches and both of our outsiders working well.

Tennis - Moscow Open - 14:00 - L. Rosol (2.30) vs D. Lajovic (1.74)
Rosol has both won both 3 set H2H wins back in 2014/15 but has a ranking of 152 vs 32 but has some decent recent winning form.
Lajovic is struggling a little bit and hence why the prices are closer today and Rosol appears to have a game that can trouble the favourite.
I think we could see better value as the match plays out and 3 sets again are a possibility but initially I will have a reduced stake back bet on Rosol from the start and I would top that up if we see 5.0 at any stage and if the price moves back to nearer 2.30 you can reduce risk.
More one to keep your eye on the in-play point to point stats for any later moves and to gauge performance.
Result: Lajovic wins in 3 sets. Rosol 55.0 high - 1.81 low.

Tennis - Moscow Open - 16:30 - P. Kohlschreiber (3.35) vs K. Khachanov (1.40)
Interesting stats for this match and some potential value from Kohly who has won 3 out of 4 H2H's and in fact has won the last 3 and the rankings are at 76 vs 8. Khachanov won this tournament last year but has been struggling a little and I think we could see some moves for this one.
Kohly has a reasonable record here also and would be looking to do well with a proven H2H record in hand and a surface/match advantage.
Tradingwise worth a back bet on Kohlschreiber from the start and look to reduce liability if he goes ahead and naturally hedge that out if he comes into much lower figures to make sure of the profit.
If Khachanov starts well we may see around 1.10's even on a pre-set basis so worth a cheeky lay at that price or similar with a view to free betting any moves on that side.
Result: Khachanov wins in 3 sets - market high 60.0 - 1.09/10 - 1.80 - won.
Kohlschreiber won S1 and into an eventual low of 1.01/02 - 12.50 - 2.20 - lost.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good evening everyone,

I will take a look for any selections for the weekly betting thread first thing on Thursday and Friday morning, but there will be no trading posts on this thread until Saturday morning at 11:00 am.

In the meantime many thanks for tuning in and trust you are picking up a bit of useful info and tips on route.

P.S - Many thanks for the thumbs up admin

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

I am going to struggle for time to post anything at the moment and I have limited time in general for any detailed future posts on this thread over the next few weeks due to additional work commitments leading up to the busy christmas period.

Future postings will be on a random basis and when I get the opportunity.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

Not a great deal of time on my hands at the moment but I have been working on my 100% level stake trading strategy and various other components in between a current busy work schedule, but here are a few basic ideas for this evenings football.

17:30 - Holsten Keil vs Bochum.
One to keep an eye on for a potential 3 goals for the H2H and recent scoring form is reasonable but not a lot of early meat on the bone for the Over 2.5 market at 1.50 is at least expecting some goals.
Final Score: 2 - 1. Goal Times: 9, 38, 52 mins.
Over 2.5 high around 1.60 won.

18:00 - IK Frej vs Norrby.
Regular 3 goals on the H2H and Norrby as 3.65 outsiders are not without chance with better recent scoring and 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 H2H encounters, so some swings on the match odds doesn't appear to be out of the question at a glance and worth a token gesture.
The Over 2.5 market is at 1.64 but we could see some improved value if we get a slower scoring match.
Final Score: 1 - 0. Goal Times: 90+ 6 mins.

19:00 - Guingamp vs Clermont.
Older H2H's for this one but I am considering better recent scoring form for Guingamp may see an unsuspecting Over 2.5 at 2.32 - 2.64 could prove vulnerable at a decent starting price and could provide some better value trading options later in the match.
Final Score: 1 - 2. Goal Times: 22, 29, 90+3 mins.
Over 2.5 market high at 3.0 into 1.14 @ G2 - 10.0 and won.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

A couple of late goals for last nights play show how vulnerable bigger priced markets can be and Guingamp for example our Over 2.5 which had already hit a high of 3.0 into a low of 1.14 touched a high of 10.0 before the late winner often makes a mockery out of what was already a decent starting price. From a trading point of view at the 1.14 - 1.20 you would sensibly remove risk and take the profit, but this doesn't stop you from reinvesting back into that market later on at a much better price using some of that profit and this has proven to be an effective strategy over the years targeting later scoring scenarios.
Worth keeping your eye out for the 12:30 - Man City and 14:30 - Bayern Munich matches today in particular for potential goals, although the starting markets in anticipation of those goals are very short, any slower match plays may see some value at some stage and a good handful of home goals are not out of the question.

18:45 - Vitesse Arnhem (1.50) vs ADO Den Haag (7.0)
Potential home goals for Vitesse against a lack lustre Den Haag appear to be struggling a little bit on form should open the door for a straightforward win and a few home goals.
Worth backing the correct score - any other home win market here at 4.40 - 4.90 to cover that home team goal run.
Target the Over 2.5 market currently at 1.41 but odds nearer 2.0 at any stage would be better but an early goal is not out of the question and the AOHW market should pick up any early business.
Final Score: 0 - 2. Goal Times: 2, 6 mins.
Any Other Home Win - Lost. Over 2.5 market matched at 80 mins but lost.

20:00 - Atletico Madrid (1.84) vs Athletic Bilbao (6.20)
It appears to be a speculative market with the Over 2.5 market priced at 2.94 but with the last 5 H2H's ending in at least 2 goals we could see some trading value on this market and the stats suggest that a later scoring scenario is not out of the question and that is where I will be waiting.
Both teams are not scoring a great deal at the moment but the H2H does show some potential for goals and a later Over 1.5 market at a good price could be where the later market value is at.
More a suck it an see scenario based on the in-play stats but worth a starter on that Over 2.5 with a view to reducing or removing risk if we do happen to see some early action.
Interesting to see how far that Under 0.5 market at 7.20 comes in before we see any action.
The same market/alternative is the CS: 0 - 0 priced the same at 7.20.
Final Score: 2 - 0. Goal Times: 28, 64 mins.
0 - 0 low 4.90 Over 1.5 market 2.10 high won. Over 2.5 - 4.80 - 2.20 - 5.50 - 1.87 @ G2.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

Summary: Interesting markets for Man City who scored all 3 of their goals in the second half so you have more likely markets that weren't worth a sausage at the start but available at much better prices later on. Bayern managed a 13 minute goal but ended 2 - 1 with the other 2 goals arriving in the 2nd half and a missed penalty from Berlin could have altered the course of that game but a later goal managed to get the Over 2.5 market over the line and it is always noted that post Euro duties can often throw up some odd scoring results.
Our main matches saw a poor playing team as outsiders score 2 goals within six minutes and no response from Vitesse and that Over 2.5 market was as low as 1.03 after G2 and went onto lose after touching the 2.0 at around 80 minutes for the bet and the early correct score cover was an absolute loser with no response but that does highlight another obvious strategy that we are working on.
Ironically the Madrid match produced better results from their 2 goals purely because there was plenty of meat on the bone and provided a couple of swings that just about pulled the two main matches to break even by the end of play.

Website: I noticed there was zero response to my suggestion of setting up a website/blog etc which of course is fine and I do consider that no feedback is very useful feedback .
I know it is very difficult to get people away from the much easier task of just placing a bet rather than thinking about the more complex issues surrounding in-play value but for me the ultimate results and rewards have been too good to ignore.
I am considering the website move as it would be a good place for family members and trading friends to access/download my trading and betting strategies and pick up some sports tips using a daily website blog format and also a place for me to keep some important sports data and run some developmental ideas so it would act both as a daily diary and a filling cabinet.
My 18 month plan now is to go full-time with my trading and betting so I think a website could offer me a solid platform in getting some of those ideas up and running....

In the meantime I have a busy family day today with little time for trading and back at work tonight so I will take this opportunity to wish you all the best and many thanks for tuning in.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[sourav11]

Hi Everyone,

This is my first thread on the forum and my main interest is trading but I also like the challenge of betting and mainly use the football and the tennis markets.
Plenty of action for the tennis most months of the year and the new season for the main football leagues of interest are underway which should offer plenty of opportunities. Any daily betting selections can also be traded and I will look to include the in-play market highs and lows wherever possible.

Some of my bets for the tennis especially, I tend to use keep bets at the better prices on offer as it is surprising how many of the more likely favourites go onto win their match but often come under some pressure and hence we often see a much better price.
A good recent example for the U.S Open was with Zverev looking good statistically to win his match against Bedene who pushed Zverev's price up nicely to well over 2.0 by winning the first set but Zverev going on to take the match in 4 sets.

A lot of the football betting and trading is focused around mainly backing various Overs markets and occasionally I take a look at the match odds markets and we often see some decent value available in the 'both teams to score' markets.

I will look to post up any daily selections by 11:00 am on a daily basis and if I cannot see any solid bets I may just highlight some of the matches that could work well enough from a trading point of view and run with it for a while.
Another addition of interest will be adding some 2, 3 & 4 way Betfair Accumulators as you often see plenty of the more likely shorter priced options that may offer up better odds if we can string a few acca's together on route.

I am not always online although permanently logged in but happy to respond to any positive comments or questions when I update results and add posts for the next day.

Regards
Betrader.

ATF ONLY?

 

[betrader]

Sourav11. ATF?

P.S thanks for the thumbs up nhuda
Please note my my betting thread is in development outlining some markets for trading possibilities for more likely markets (Over 1.5s/2.5s) but I have little time available to run both threads at the moment.

 

[betrader]

Good afternoon folks,

Been a while and I think one of my last posts was looking at the horse racing, but the very next day they cancelled every U.K meeting along with the rest of it, but now getting back into my main trading/betting sports of tennis and football.
I generally trade and re-trade better than starting price offers on Betfair as tennis and football matches go in play as I believe there is often very little value at S.P, but you can often see some amazing prices later on in a match based that go onto do well and even win.
This is where the exchanges often have a real advantage over your standard bookmaker, who (from experience) will quite often will restrict or close your account when you start to pick up a few winners.

18:00 - Sonderjyske vs FC Nordsjaelland.
Regular three goals on the H2H although recent played form is fairly average so the Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 will be my target markets for this match and a late break through may offer a better deal than the starting prices.
The Over 2.5 market as an example is around 1.90 from the start but we may see much better exchange prices on-route.
Final Score: 1 - 1.

20:15 - Breidablik vs Vikingur Reykjavik.
Regular 3 - 5 goals on the H2H with okay recent scoring form makes the Over 2.5 market for this at around 1.90 a good option for betting but we may see Over 4.5 market doing well and may offer a good cover market at much better prices.
Final Score: 4 - 0.

Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Decent results for yesterdays matches and the Over 1.5 market example for the first match touched highs of over 2.0 and 3.20 before it went onto win which is much better value than the 1.30 starting price and some close late shots almost toppled the Over 2.5 at very big prices.
The second match the 2.5 won easily and touched a high of 3.20 and the Over 4.5 hit highs of 15.0 before the first goal and into lows of 1.30 as we neared the general goal prediction.

11:00 GMT - Sendai vs G.Osaka.
Solid H2H showing a regular 3 goals and so the Over 2.5 at over even money from the start may offer a good target market for this one.
G.Osaka have the form here but may take a while for a breakthrough on the away leg so we could see some better prices for 1.5 and 2.5 markets.
Final Score: 0 - 1.

19:00 GMT - KA Akureyri vs Keflavic.
Regular 3 on the H2H and Akureyri going off as favourites after a 4 - 1 win last time out on the road so we could see some action here.
Market prices are expecting goals so not a great deal of value from the start and similar to last nights second match I will be looking to back the Over 4.5 as early cover at a better price just in case it gets off to a flier.
Final Score: 2 - 1.

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Osaka got the match winning first half goal for better prices in yesterdays listings but no momentum for the goal markets and Akureyri was always a bit awkward in terms of expected goals vs lower market prices but grabbed a later match winning goal taking with a marginally winning over 2.5 market at a high of around 2.0 at 80 minutes with a 2 - 1 scoreline, but too slow a game to see any real progress on the Over 4.5 market.

20:15 GMT - Hafnarfjordur vs HK Kopavogur
Strong home team advantage winning the last 5/5 H2H matches with a consistent 3 - 4 goals per match and not that bad a price for the match odds favourites at 1.86 offers a very good opportunity today on the home leg with some form against a team who have lost their last 2 matches.
More likely Over 2.5 markets are priced around the 1.80 mark but based on goal consistency the Over 3.5/4.5 markets looks to offer a better priced deal if we do see some first half action.
Final Score: 2 - 4.
Very unexpected but great performance from Kopavogur only adds to the goal markets with the Over 3.5/4.5 markets both winning by half time with the latter priced around 7/1 from the start.
The Over 2.5 market for the record was all done on both sides by 17 minutes and drifted pre-match to better than even money.

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12:45 GMT - Albirex Niigata vs Tanjong Pagar United - Final Score: 1 - 2.
Good H2H results with the overall advantage going to top of the league Albirex who scored a nice 6 - 0 in their last played H2H match on the road back in April of this year.
Naturally we see much shorter priced markets in expectation of goals and it may be a little unrealistic to expect Over 2.5 markets to reach much better prices before we see some action - A more suitable target market for S.P bettors would be the Over 3.5 at around even money.
My strategy would be to back the Over 5.5 market at 6.0 or better and see if I can get a better price on the more likely 2.5/3.5 markets as it goes in play.
Good performance from the outsiders and goals at 33 mins but a nice late run at 80 and 84 mins did see much better over 2.5 market prices.
Too slow and too little for the Over 5.5 cover market and one goal short of the Over 3.5 betting suggestion.

19:30 GMT - Midtjylland vs Vejle - Final Score: 4 - 1.
Home team advantage with a general 3 - 4 goal target and not a bad priced Over 2.5 market at 1.85 on the exchanges considering the general consistency of their last 3 H2H home wins at 5 - 0, 5 - 0 and 3 - 1.
The correct score Any Other Home Win market at 8.20 - 9.20 is the one sided goal solution, considering 4 out of 5 of their last matches have ended in at least 3 or 5 goals and typically with very little response from Vejle could add a little more value than the usual Over 4.5 cover which is priced around 5/1+. Drifting in-play 2.5 markets for exchange bettors/traders could offer a good deal if we do see a slower played match.
The Over 2.5 market touched 2.60 and 2.12 before winning and the AOHW market touched highs of 11.50 and 12.0 and went onto win with a second half breakthough of goals from the home team.

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