Daily Tennis & Football.

[betrader]

Hi Everyone,

This is my first thread on the forum and my main interest is trading but I also like the challenge of betting and mainly use the football and the tennis markets.
Plenty of action for the tennis most months of the year and the new season for the main football leagues of interest are underway which should offer plenty of opportunities. Any daily betting selections can also be traded and I will look to include the in-play market highs and lows wherever possible.

Some of my bets for the tennis especially, I tend to use keep bets at the better prices on offer as it is surprising how many of the more likely favourites go onto win their match but often come under some pressure and hence we often see a much better price.
A good recent example for the U.S Open was with Zverev looking good statistically to win his match against Bedene who pushed Zverev's price up nicely to well over 2.0 by winning the first set but Zverev going on to take the match in 4 sets.

A lot of the football betting and trading is focused around mainly backing various Overs markets and occasionally I take a look at the match odds markets and we often see some decent value available in the 'both teams to score' markets.

I will look to post up any daily selections by 11:00 am on a daily basis and if I cannot see any solid bets I may just highlight some of the matches that could work well enough from a trading point of view and run with it for a while.
Another addition of interest will be adding some 2, 3 & 4 way Betfair Accumulators as you often see plenty of the more likely shorter priced options that may offer up better odds if we can string a few acca's together on route.

I am not always online although permanently logged in but happy to respond to any positive comments or questions when I update results and add posts for the next day.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[A_Skywalker]

Hi, Welcome to the forum!
I also bet on tennis on betfair. I like in play odds as they are not always right. I like to lay 1.01 on tennis, I have had some success like this.
Do you want me to move your thread to "Personal Threads" or you prefer to keep it in general forum? Both ways are fine.

best regards

 

[betrader]

Hi there and many thanks for the welcome!
Yes those outside chances especially on the tennis laying at low figures can regularly pay off for such a small risk and seen many a turnaround on match point chokers and even 1.01 losers so something to look out for in creation of another thread perhaps.
Moving over to the personal threads would be great if you can sort that - thanks in advance...

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

I thought I would do a quick introduction so everyone gets a better idea of what I am looking to achieve from my betting and trading before I make a start with this thread.
I am still finding my way around the forum and tools and thought joining a forum may add a bit more dimension to my betrading and we seem to have a keen bunch willing to look at and try out some new ideas.
I will assume that I just add a post to my thread and it will end up in the new posts section but please correct me if I am doing it wrong.
I do make a bit of money from my trading to a point now I do only work 3 night shifts per week to top up my meager sports trading efforts so I usually get home early morning and do some form study before hitting the sack for a few hours.
The U.S Open timezone has been ideal for me (U.K) as I get to do some trading before I go to work plus I get to trade a bit of football in between and at weekends and my days off which happen to be Friday through to Monday so this works well for the weekend footie.

My ideas for trading in particular are to find better in-play value rather than continually looking at the starting prices which rarely offer any significant value and especially if you consider that many football matches may take 20 - 30 minutes before scoring a goal then better value can be had for the patient. We won't strike better value all of the time but when we do it can pay off nicely.

As an example trading last nights Porto vs Guimaraes match for the Over 2.5 market, I expected it to get across the line for at least three to four goals on the home leg for Porto but amazing how some of those prices creep up between goals especially if we see a slower type of match.
Porto were a goal up at 14 minutes but nothing until two goals at 88 and 90+3 minutes where the Over 2.5 after the initial dip drifted all the way to 10.0. The point being is that we regularly can see much better in-play value if we don't waver from our original view and this has started to make a big difference in my general returns even when you consider that a lot of the time you can free bet the bigger moves to remove some of your risk.
The Porto Over 2.5 market was around 1.60 from the start, hit a high of 10.0 and was actually at 4.40 before the late goal but even the Over 1.5 market with a goal in drifted back up to 2.14 before the 88 minute winner and all within the general goal prediction for the match.
The tennis is similar and I have seen plenty of turnarounds over the years with bigger prices (especially a set and a break down types) go onto recover the set (remove risk) and then go on to do well at lower figures where you can hedge out for a decent profit, plus we often get plenty of in-form outsiders that have decent credentials that can often trouble the shorter priced favourites.

I use basic form study using the Flashscores H2H stats and I am no sports guru and I am not even a big football (or tennis) fan so I know nothing about the game of football in particular and just work the numbers. I am sure I will get pulled up on some details but I am willing to take on-board any constructive criticism on route and hopefully pick up a few good tips myself.

I will aim to get a daily post up by 11:00 am which will include a general trading watchlist and then I will post up any bets or accumulators under a separate heading underneath so we don't mix the two. Naturally any bets can also be traded out in-play if you see a positive swing in the price.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Tennis & Football Watchlist - Monday 02nd September.

Tennis start times are subject to change.

The U.S Open has thinned down considerably as we enter week 2 into the fourth round matches.
At 18:30 for the mens today it will be interesting to see if Schwartzman has any response to Zverev and they are fairly evenly priced.
Zverev has just got it across the line in a couple of his matches but was more decisive in his 3rd round match against Bedene.
We could see a few swings for this one and better prices but I think Zverev should have the overall advantage.
Schwartzman hasn't dropped a set all week so we could see a closer competition and some good trading opportunities.
I will back Zverev from the start and top up that bet if he loses the first set - more than 3 sets are likely.
Result: Schwartzman wins in 4 sets - market high around 4.30. Zverev low 1.28 @ S1.

At 16:00 for the WTA we have Vekic (1.93) vs Goerges (2.04). Goerges has won all 3 H2H matches and represents some value at SP and they are similarly ranked at 23 vs 30. I think this is a good opportunity for Goerges but not without response from Vekic and we could see a closer run competition. I would be tempted to back Goerges from the start but top up that back bet if she loses the first set to add some value.
Result: Vecic wins in 3 sets - market high: 36.0. Goerges market low 1.04 after winning first set and breaking early in set 2.

Scheduled for 17:00 I think Bencic at 3.05 can put a bit of pressure on Osaka. Bencic has won the last 3 of 4 H2H matches and 2 of those have been this year. This one could run closer and Bencic has the potential benefit of a pass in the last round.
Worth a smaller back bet on Bencic from the start and top that up if she loses the first set and lock in any positive moves as free bets.
Result: Bencic wins in 2 sets - market high: 3.70.

Not a great deal today for the football today but the German 3 Liga match at 18:00 between Carl Zeiss Jena vs Magdeburg looks an interesting match up with the away team advantage and an over 2.5 market at 1.85 looks potentially vulnerable and is currently going in-play.
Magdeburg have won their last 7 H2H matches and all but two of those went over 2.5 goals so worth keeping your eye on that one in-play and I will have a token bet on the Correct Score - Any Other Away Win market currently at 8.60 and I will have a reduced back bet on the Over 2.5 market if I see that at 4.0 at any stage during the match.
Final Score: 1 - 1. Over 2.5 market just touched 4.0 into 2.0 at goal 1 and up to 4.30 into 1.80 @ goal 2. AOAW market lost.

Daily Bets.

U.S Open. 18:30 - A. Zverev vs D. Schwartzman.
Back Alexander Zverev at keep odds of 3.0.
Result: Schwartzman wins in 4 sets.

Regards
Betrader

 

[Betting Forum]

Hello, the reason there is 30 minutes edit is because some people post something and later they edit it with spam links. I will check if I can enable editing for you only, because you seem like a nice person. Just give me few minutes.

EDIT: You can edit your own posts at any time now. Try.

 

[betrader]

Hello, the reason there is 30 minutes edit is because some people post something and later they edit it with spam links. I will check if I can enable editing for you only, because you seem like a nice person. Just give me few minutes.

EDIT: You can edit your own posts at any time now. Try.

Hi There,
I figured it would be for something like that and appreciate you to allow me to freely edit my posts.
Just really want to be able to update the results on the same page and maybe check for typo's but I would keep the main content and match selections as they were posted originally at all times.
Tried the edit and works fine... many thanks!
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Tennis & Football Watchlist - Tuesday 03rd September.

Good morning everyone,

A quick rundown for yesterdays matches showed the later match with Zverev going down in flames yesterday but not before making a mini-comeback took his price from a high of 95.0 into around 11.0 which then puts his opponent from 1.02 initially to 1.08 and then 1.01 up to 1.09 which are significant moves for low lay traders as discussed in an earlier post. Schwartzman played very well and Zverev just ran out of steam and dropped his weary arms in defeat after previous epic battles so nothing for our first bet but plenty of trading opportunity as he won the first set but only touched 2.50 during the initial stages and almost a hopeful turnaround pinching a late break back.
Bencic came through nicely to win her match as outsider and Goerges lost her match from a low of 1.04 again showing how those outside low lay chances can often pay off especially from a trading point of view where you may have already made money from the downswing and a cheeky cheap low lay can often pay dividends.
The football ran tighter with just two goals and the 4.0 for the Over 2.5 was marginally touched on goal one into 2.0 and then 4.30 into 1.80 but illustrates how better value can provide some good returns and on both occasions, reaped better single trading profits from the higher suggested prices than you would have gotten for 3 goals at the starting price for a straight bet... the power of trading. The away win market offered a bit of goal cover just in case our team started scoring early but nice to at least see the later equalizer.

Not a great deal of football for this week or weekend with the Euro Qualifiers on next week so most of the main league action is otherwise disposed and with the tennis thinning down I am sure we will find something to look at but not as busy as I would like to be.
We have new tennis tournaments starting on a more European time zone next week so there will be plenty more of that to look at after the U.S Open and I will put up a few posts of potential interest during any quieter spells.

U.S Open - Quarter Final Match Rundown.

In the meantime a quick rundown of todays tennis coupon for the mens we have 18:30 - Wawrinka (1.82) vs Medvedev (2.20) They have only played each other once at Wimbledon in 2017 and Medvedev won that in 4 sets and both are playing well enough at the moment. The odds are fairly even and slightly favour the lower ranked Wawrinka probably in response to his win over Djokovic who retired to injury but this one should go much closer and Medvedev is not without chance. Hard to pick a winner but I think we see some moves on route.
More than 3 sets are likely so probably worth laying any player (especially Wawrinka) or whoever wins the first set or alternatively back your favoured player at the bigger price.
Result: Medvedev wins in 4 sets - Market high: 15.0
Note: Wawrinka touched into a much lower than usual first set price before the first set was finished in response to Medvedev's medical time out for a potential thigh injury. Warwrinka touched market lows on three pre-set occasions of 1.11, 1.09 and 1.07/08.

Scheduled for 17:00 we have the Svitolina (1.55) vs Konta (2.80) match with the first named and higher ranked player winning all four of their H2H encounters and difficult to get away from the favourite for this one. Both have been playing well with Konta knocking out Pliskova (3) in the last round in three sets but it is Svitolina who hasn't dropped a set all week and looks to have the edge that is reflected in her price.
Some early push from Konta to get a better price over 2.0 on Svitolina could work well but not a great deal of value from the start and one to watch or note the point to point (Flashscores) to get a better idea. Anyone on Amazon Prime will have good coverage of the U.S Open and I have learnt quite a bit this week watching some of the live matches and replays.
Result: Svitolina wins fairly comfortably in 2 sets - Market High around 1.70.

Regards
Betrader

P.S Found the Goerges graph I saved from yesterdays match as she touched in comfortably at 1.04 being a set and an early break up and started moving back up again quickly as Vekic recovered the 2nd set with a later double break.

 

[BgFutbol]

Nice analysis, I hope I it's okay to comment on your post. I also think Wawrinka - Medvedev may go to over 3 sets. I want to bring to your attention that Medvedev sited some pain in his shoulder and tiredness, even after his R3 match. At least for me I will lay Medvedev if he wins set 1. Probably will be hesitant to lay Wawrinka if he wins set 1.

 

[betrader]

Nice analysis, I hope I it's okay to comment on your post. I also think Wawrinka - Medvedev may go to over 3 sets. I want to bring to your attention that Medvedev sited some pain in his shoulder and tiredness, even after his R3 match. At least for me I will lay Medvedev if he wins set 1. Probably will be hesitant to lay Wawrinka if he wins set 1.

Hi There and thanks....
Please feel free to comment and appreciate the heads up and great to have some input from elsewhere. Time of the year I guess where everyone is starting to wear out including Djokovic's shoulder in the last round and also Zverev's problem yesterday I think just starting to run out of steam. I think also the crowd may go against Medvedev as well which won't help because of the incident with the ball boy in the last round so that maybe enough to tip the balance in Wawrinka's favour but should be an interesting one to watch at least.
P.S. I think my "especially Wawrinka" lay comment looking back at my post was more that his price would have come in shorter from his SP rather than him not being capable enough to win outright.

 

[BgFutbol]

Well, Medvedev is leading and injured. Seems like the right time to lay if the odds are good. I am not home so I skipped betting on this match.

1.7 still for Wawrinka

 

[betrader]

Well, Medvedev is leading and injured. Seems like the right time to lay if the odds are good. I am not home so I skipped betting on this match.

1.7 still for Wawrinka

Yes some nice easy money considering if Medvedev retired in S1 then all bets would have been void so grabbed some of the bigger prices on Med due to the market overeaction for a couple of quick trades and have now layed Wawrinka at the lower prices on offer before the end of the set.
Wawrinka lows of 1.11 - 1.25 and 1.08 - currently 1.36... Med now 3 - 0 up in the tie-break. - Med wins first set - Wawrinka now at 1.50's

 

[BgFutbol]

Yes some nice easy money considering if Medvedev retired in S1 then all bets would have been void so grabbed some of the bigger prices on Med due to the market overeaction for a couple of quick trades and have now layed Wawrinka at the lower prices on offer before the end of the set.
Wawrinka lows of 1.11 - 1.25 and 1.08 - currently 1.36... Med now 3 - 0 up in the tie-break.

I think Wawrinka will win but he looks so stupid. Anything is possible.

 

[betrader]

I think Wawrinka will win but he looks so stupid. Anything is possible.

Yes I have manually exited the lay bet on Wawrinka but I have some free bets on Medvedev as a bonus in case he holds it together.
Great first set! If Medvedev comes into 1.50 I will just hit the hedge button and square it up.
Update: Medvedev market low of 1.44 at sets 2 - 0.

 

[betrader]

Tennis Trading Watchlist.

I am up and about early today and busy later and work tonight so figured I would get the daily post up asap.

Very interesting match last night with the market going mad during Medvedev's medical time out and where I call that free money is you get the prices well out of sync from the norm where if the player continues into the 2nd set the prices tend to settle back from the over-reaction; Either way you you have a low risk situation because all bets are void if the first set isn't completed. You get your back bets and lays in at the already vastly improved prices and value you would normally see in typical play at 2 sets to love, yet all available before the first set is even completed.
Wawrinka dipped to a low of 1.08 - 1.11 was worth a cheeky lay bet at the low prices even though the set wasn't completed and I took the opportunity to gain some free bets on Medvedev in case he turned it around which he did.
I wasn't quite convinced for his MTO as he was looking quite relaxed as the medic went to work and seemed to play much better after they cut the bandage off. Wawrinka I think dropped his guard in anticipation of a potential retirement and wasn't the same player after that.
Possibly a sneaky tactic from Medvedev to get the crowd on his side and upset Wawrinka who was looking unhappier than normal, but either way you take those opportunities when they come your way.
Svitolina won her match fairly comfortably but we did get to see a 1.01/02 - 1.09 move as Konta fought back on balance from 90.0 into around 12.0.
Many thanks for the comments on yesterdays match and much appreciated.

Onto today we have the 17:00 - Bencic vs Vekic match for the second set of quarter finals and they have played 3 times with Bencic winning 2 of those albeit back in 2014 and Vekic beat her this year in the French Open and all matches were won in straight sets.
Bencic is the higher ranked player and goes off around 1.60. Both players have had a good week and very impressive from Vekic to beat Goerges in the last round recovering from a set and a break down to win so she is not without chance and prepared to put up a good fight.
Difficult one to pitch at the starting prices as I think they should be a bit closer on price perhaps but this one could run closer and we may see their first 3 setter or at least 2 closer sets.
If Bencic drops into 1.15 - 1.20 at any stage I think she would be worth a lay bet in case we get another Vekic comeback but better prices on both players are likely during the match.
Result: Bencic wins in 2 sets - Market High: 2.40 - 2.50.

For the mens at 18:30 we have Berrettini vs Monfils who have never played each other so that always makes is more difficult to predict especially for this tournament in particular. Naturally both have played well enough to get here but the higher ranked Monfils looks to have the edge.
Monfils must feel he is in with a good chance this week with so many of the main contenders out of the frame and a well playing Dimitrov ranked 78 took out no3 Federer in the early hours of this morning in 5 sets, but he still would have Nadal who is now tournament favourite to contend with.
Berrettini beat a lower ranked Rublev in straight sets in the last round but looks vulnerable against a Monfil attack but at 1.54 there isn't a lot of meat on the bone so we can hope for a quicker start from Berrettini to push that price up and see how it looks in-play.
2.0 on Monfils should offer a better entry and Berrettini's best hope could be to get off to a quick start and we may see 4 sets if Berrettini is up to the challenge but with no H2H I can't put this down as a straight bet.
Result: Berrettini wins in 5 sets - Market High: 10.0 - 11.0.

There is not enough forum paper to run into player stats and to be honest I rarely look at them as each match is different and needs to be played differently against other opponents and that is where the H2H stats come into play coupled with more recent player form tends to keep things a little more simple. One can always dig a bit deeper into the stats if need be - Plagiarism being passed off as expertise is not my strong suit...
Player stats are useful to know but too much information sometimes can get in the way of a bit of healthy intuition

Regards
Betrader

 

[betrader]

Daily Trading Watchlist.

Good morning everyone,

What a great match for Berrettini vs Monfils and I didn't get to trade the last set as I had to go to work but got the last set price results off my cousin and quite a few family and friends follow me with the sports trading ideas - trading is usually a bit of a loner thing so it is good to be able to have a different type of enthusiastic worthwhile conversation when we all meet up as a family and indeed offers a good reason to meet up.

Berrettini hit highs of 11.0 and won the match which puts Monfils on balance touching a low of 1.09 which of course goes down as one for the cheeky lay strategy . Monfils did touch highs afterwards of 4.0 and back into around 2.0 and later hit highs of 26.0 and back into under 2.0 as he levelled the sets 2 - 2 and where I left the match - This then on balance puts Berrettini at a low of 1.04 to over 2.0 which offers great opportunities for in-play traders and again another opportunity for the cheeky lay strategy.
Monfils was clearly struggling with the heat but you can't help feeling pleased for Berrettini who had several match point opportunities before taking the match in the S5 tie-break - I watched the 5th Set Amazon re-run this morning when I got back from work.
Not a lot available from the 2.0 price on Monfils but the match offered some good trading opportunities throughout.
Elsewhere Bencic won her match from a high of 2.50 after being broken in S1 and she touched into a low of 1.22 up to around 1.40 but was more decisive in S2 and brought it home and no comeback mission this time for Vekic. With hindsight I should have been a bit more creative with my views on that one rather than just advising to lay a player that we know is playing well enough seems a little bit negative.

I didn't have the Euro matches down on my watchlist so missed the fact they were playing today but a quick run through the card may offer a couple of opportunites available for this evening and will be able to get a couple of looks in before I go to work.
The 19:45 - Norway (1.06) vs Malta (95.0) match looks good for a few home goals and they have met 7 times with Norway winning every match and hence they are just 1.06 for the match odds. The Over 2.5 market looks slim in expectation of goals at 1.36 but the Over 3.5 at 2.0 could offer us a trade/bet from the start and we could top up that back bet at 4.0 at any stage if we do see any drift before half time or between goals.
The any other home win market is naturally shorter and last traded at 2.42 which is not a million miles off the anyone scoring 3.5 market so that may offer some better prices later on a slower market but the 3.5 looks to be a potentially decent target market.
Final Score: 2 - 0. Goal Times: 34, 45+1 mins.
Over 3.5 market 3.55 - 2.20 - 2.78 - 1.72 @ G2.

The other match of interest is the earlier 17:00 - Armenia (14.0) vs Italy (1.29) match where again a few goals are possible based on the older H2H form and recent scoring form for both teams has been decent. It wouldn't surprise if Armenia could hold Italy for a while which would give markets like the Over 2.5 @ 1.65 a decent price boost. One to keep an eye on but 3.0 on the Over 2.5 market at any stage may offer a bit of value if we get a bit of time lapse.
It maybe worth backing the Over 4.5 for a bit of money at 5.0 or best price before the start to cover the early scoring chance at a better price - if we do get early goals then you can treat that as your main trade.
Final Score: 1 - 3. Goal Times: 11, 28, 77, 80 mins.
Over 2.5 market won but not matched at 3.0. Over 4.5 market 6.0 - 2.50 @ G2 - 24.0 - 6.40 @ G3 - 2.12 low @ G4.

Back tomorrow with an update and another look at the tennis and good luck...

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

A little hit and miss with last nights football let down by awkward goal times and Norway not scoring enough when they had plenty of chances to do so and so that ended 2 - 0, but looking back over the stats they have had some low scoring H2H encounters before - If we had the secondary part of the trade matched we would have been in much better shape.
The Armenia match went nicely with a late run from Italy who touched almost 2.0 twice for the match odds so although we saw some early goals with the first from the home team they did a good job of holding them for a while until Italy broke through later on.
I put up the graph on yesterdays post to show what happened to the price in-between goals and that Over 4.5 market touched a high of 24.0 into around 2.0 as G3 and G4 went in but either way we got a trade out of that exceeding 100% in the first instance from the starting price or at the very least securing a risk free bet into the market.
Euro matches are not particularly high on my general football watch-list as they can be a little inconsistent so I always use a reduced staking plan.

Tonight We could see a few goals for the 19:45 - Austria (1.08) vs Latvia (75.0) encounter with a regular 3 goals on the H2H shows some consistency and naturally plenty of potential from the home team although it has not always been that way. Lativa are yet to perform in terms of goal scoring or wins this year and that could open up the door to a few goals for Austria.
Very similar pricing to the Norway match and again the Over 3.5 market looks a decent target at around 2.0 or best price for the start price and I would top that up at a lower price tonight at 3.40 which would cover any later first half goals.
Worth keeping your eye on Over 2.5 markets that may drift out if we get a slower one but the 3.5 looks a reasonable proposition based on the general H2H scoring stats.
Final Score: 6 - 0. Goal Times: 7, 13, 53, 76, 80, 85 mins.
First price only @ 2.0 matched on the Over 3.5 market.

Tennis: Serena Williams beat Svitolina comfortably in last nights encounter and not much price on that one for Williams so it appears she has got over her ankle problem. She meets a well playing Andreescu in Saturdays final and we will take a look at that one tomorrow but with no real H2H form we would be taking a bit of chance but there appears to be some value on the outsider.
Tonight we have the 21:00 - Medvedev (1.57) vs Dimitrov (2.72) encounter and they share the H2H's 1 a piece and that is a difficult one to pick a winner with the potentially injured Medvedev going off as 1.57 favourite. We could see a bit of tit for tat for the sets similar with Dimitrov beating Federer in 5 sets in the last round. One could argue that the outsider stands a chance here tonight so it could run closer but Medvedev looks the better player on ranking if he doesn't have any issues. Smaller stakes and better prices on Med would offer a bit more value but it should be an interesting one to watch initially before getting involved.
Result: Medvedev wins in 3 sets - Initial Market High: 2.14.

The later encounter between Berrettini (13.0) vs Nadal (1.08) looks like a straightforward win based on ranking and form but no H2H form and no real surprise Nadal goes off as 1.08 favourite. Berrettini will be on a bit of a high with nothing to lose and his only chance really is to come out swinging and that can often alter the pattern of match during the early stages.
Plenty of higher ranked players have gone down this week for both WTA and ATP and this last 2 years has been a period of change with the new generation of talent on the horizon steadily moving in.
One for a very cheeky cheap lay on Nadal at that price in case Berrettini gets off to a good start but not one to put your shirt on.
Result: Nadal wins in 3 sets - Nadal went 2 break points down during first set tie-break for a price swing.

Regards
Betrader

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

We redressed the balance with the football in last nights match with a nice 6 - 0 win for Austria and not that surprised it was without reply and it started scoring from the get-go so we didn't get the better price on the Over 3.5 market.
Medvedev was generally in control of his match although he did hit a high of 2.14 and set two he was broken from market lows but double broke back only to be broken level again before taking it late in the 2nd set and set 3 was more decisive for a straight sets win.
Imagine Medvedev winning the U.S Open would no doubt finally cement America's love of all things Russian .

Nadal beat Berrettini in 3 sets but a tighter first set went down to a tie-break where he double broke Nadal and had 2 set points at 6 - 4 and 6 -5.
Considering Berrettini was under break pressure during the first set you would have seen a lower price on Nadal and a nice swing on both players as he nearly won the first set so worth a cheeky lay... More pressure from Nadal in S2 and more comfortable in S3 without response from the outsider but as anticipated he came out swinging and will no doubt learn to cope better on those pressure points with more experience.

I don't have much idea for the U.S Open Final @ 21:00 - Bianca Andreescu (3.65) vs Serena Williams (1.37) and they only played once and Serena retired in the first set. Both have had a great week and I get the feeling that the outsider is not without chance but with no H2H form it is difficult one to judge her chances. Serena dropped a set early in the week but has since been more decisive and looks in good shape after her semi-final win over Svitolina despite rolling on her ankle earlier in the week, and Andreescu has dropped a couple of sets through the week and it will be interesting to see how the young 19 year old copes with the occasion of a major final but either way she is in the money.
Instinct says Serena will take this but we could see a higher price so backing her over 2.0 would be a good start if Andreescu can come out swinging and push for an early break opportunity.
Result: Andreescu wins in 2 sets.
Later recovery from Williams @ 100.0 into 2.20/30 and a 1.01 - 1.80 for Andreescu on swing balance.

Not great H2H stats for today's Euro fighters but you would expect 17:00 England to comfortably take out Bulgaria and their last 2 H2H's have finished in 3 and 4 goals but that was way back in 2010/11. Prices naturally are not great and typical of last nights Austria match so again backing the Over 3.5 market currently at 2.06 looks a good option and top that back bet up at 3.40 in case we get a market that runs 20 - 25 minutes without a goal. Later options for backing scoreless Over 1.5's nearer 1.80 - 2.0 could offer some late relief in case we just see a later couple of 'just needed to win' type of later goals.
Final Score: 4 - 0. Goal Times: 24, 50, 55, 73 mins.
Over 3.5 market touched 3.20 before goal 1 and up to a market high of 3.50 before goal 2 and won.

General: Other matches for the day I will be keeping an eye on is the 12:30 League One - Doncaster vs Rotherham encounter we could see a vulnerable Over 2.5 market for that one and dare I say a potential home win for Doncaster @ 2.64 who have beaten top of the league Lincoln twice in the last month or so both in league play and EFL Trophy play so we may see them running into a bit of scoring form.
Another one of some interest is the 17:30 encounter between SC Telstar vs Cambuur which I have down as potential goals. The general H2H is a bit scrappy but suggests that 3 goals are likely with the potential to see more with their last encounter back in April going 4 - 2 to Telstar on the home leg. Covering an Over 4.5 for a bit of early money at 6.0 would offer some "potential" goal cover before taking a look at a possibly inflated Over 1.5 market nearer 2.0 or Over 2.5 markets nearer 4.0 which could drift out nicely if we get a quieter first half.
Doncaster vs Rotherham. Final Score: 2 - 1. Goal Times: 37, 66, 88 mins.
Over 2.5 highs at 4.40, 4.40 & 3.90 won. Doncaster match odds high drifted at 0 - 1 to 17.50 - 7.40 @ 1 - 1 into 1.10 @ 2 - 1 and won.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

Andreescu played a great match and did come out swinging taking the first set but you could see a bit of pressure building up which gave Williams a great opportunity of a comeback to square up in the second set from a high of 100.0 into under 3.0 and one for sure for the hall of cheeky lays with Andreescu at 1.01 - 1.80!!! I think it would be fair to say Williams wasn't up to the standard she has been for the final but a very well deserved win and payday for the 19 year old and some good opportunities for pro-active traders.
England worked well enough with a good tally of home goals for our target market and the earlier Doncaster match was one of those where if you translate your original view into your trading you can get some great rewards - the match odds touched a whopping 17.50 on the goal down drift and went onto win and the Over 2.5 markets touched highs of 4.40 and won with a later goal. The Telstar match was a little less giving but again the goal in Over 1.5 touched a high of 3.15 to win for the slower market view and even the Over 2.5 market touched a high of 21.0 and back under our entry into 3.80 so then you have a profit on the over 1.5 that more than covers the original O4.5 trade and the potential to scratch out the Over 2.5 trade just from a single late goal.

We have the U.S Open Final between Medvedev (5.50) vs Nadal (1.21) scheduled for 9:00pm tonight (U.K time) and naturally Medvedev goes off as rank outsider but I think he could offer much more than Berrettini did but they have only played once this year in Montreal in the run up to this tournament and that went to Nadal in straight sets. Very difficult to get away from Nadal for the win but then I said that about Williams so this time maybe worth a smaller back bet on Medvedev from the start and if you see 1.05 - 1.07 on Nadal at any stage he would be worth a cheeky lay bet for a trade in the hope that Medvedev can pinch a set at some point. From the start it is a difficult one to judge and just hope alone doesn't pay the bills. If you like your tennis then just sit back and enjoy...
Result: Nadal wins in 5 sets but lost Sets 3 & 4. Nadal was at the suggested 1.05 after S2 before he broke Medvedev in S3 for an even lower price. Medvedev recovered to take S3 and then bring the sets level at 2 - 2 for a nice swing.

More Euro Fighters for today starting at 17:00 and we have Romania who got a 4 - 0 win in their only H2H against Malta on the road in June and Malta remain scoreless in their last four matches so again the Over 3.5 market (2.04) looks to be a suitable type of target market for trading or betting but later over-inflated markets like the Over 2.5 maybe worth dropping onto if it works out as a slower scoring type match.
Final Score: 1 - 0.

17:00 - Georgia (7.60) vs Denmark (1.53) looks like a good opportunity for the away team and they have played four times and got over 2.5 goals in every encounter and more recent scoring for Denmark saw a 5 - 1 defeat for Georgia on the road and decent scoring in general.
Maybe Denmark will just go for a low scoring win but at 2.14 for the Over 2.5 market there looks to be some decent value available and maybe a bit too good to be true at that price but I will take it anyway.
To cover a potentially later scoring match, backing the Over 1.5 at 3.0 at any stage could work well on a lower, later scoring affair.
Final Score: 0 - 0.

General: Other matches we should see plenty of goals for the 19:45 - Spain vs Faroe Islands encounter but the Overs markets are very low in anticipation but I will have a touch on the Over 7.5 market at 5.0 - 6.0 for a bit of cover in case we see another big scorer but the ideal target market for that would be the Over 4.5 goals but is at no worthwhile price at the start.
Final Score: 4 - 0. Goal Times: 13, 50, 90, 90+3 mins.
The 19:45 match between Sweden vs Norway has some potential although some of the H2H has been lower scoring the Over 2.5 market at 2.18 looks potentially vulnerable and both teams scoring @ 1.96 isn't out of the question. Their last H2H in March this year ended 3 - 3 at home to Norway so we could see another decent match tonight.
Trading wise I will cover the Over 4.5 for a bit of money from the start around 9.0 and look to get 4.0 on the Over 2.5 market at any stage or alternatively back the Over 1.5 @ 2.0.
Final Score: 1 - 1. Goal Times: 45, 60 mins.
Over 2.5 market at 5.40 into a low of 1.53. Over 1.5 market available & won.

Regards
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Good morning everyone,

A great mens final produced some decent moves with Medvedev pulling back from being 2 sets and a break down to level the sets at 2 - 2 before finally losing out 3 - 2 to Nadal. Lows of 1.04/05 were available entering into S3 and even lower after the S3 break but offered a great recovery.
Medvedev did drop into a low of 3.60 in the first set with an early break so the signs of capability from Medvedev were available from the start.

Sunday Match Summary: The football wasn't quite as willing to give it up with a couple being low scorers despite Romania getting good opportunities to score couldn't convert into a decent final result and similarly so for Denmark who had chances to score but that ended 0 - 0 and so I absorbed some losses on those.
Spain was awkward on scoring but so many of those types score late goals and for example the Over 3.5 market touched a high of 21.0 (and any other home win market even higher) and went onto win with the two later goals (90 - 90+3 mins) and even the Over 2.5 market needing just one goal touched 2.88 and won.
This illustrates how awkward it can be to find the value and a suitable angle before the match starts but the pro-active side of trading can often be very rewarding at the better prices on offer.
The final game with Sweden ended 1 - 1 and the Over 2.5 hit a high of 5.40 into a low of 1.53 @ G2 was all the excuse I needed to reduce some of the earlier trading loses and just as well as that was the last goal of the match but with much better value available and of course the Over 1.5 market had also crept up in value and was an actual market winner.
I made a mistake with this weeks tennis coupon and the more European tournaments are in fact next week as the men get a week off and we have some early Asian time-zones for this week so not ideal. With a busy U.S Open out of the way most of my trading will be more on a random basis as matches come along as I get back from work in the morning. I will take a look at the football for the next couple of days for the last of the Euro matches and here is one for later on.

19:45 - Russia (1.18) vs Kazakhstan (25.0)
This looks like a good opportunity for Russia to score a few if they are interested as they won their last H2H match on the road 4 - 0.
The market prices are slightly higher and is a little divided if we will see any decent scoring.
The Over 3.5 market currently at 2.56 but I think we could see some later value with a 2 - 3 + goal potential so intially I will back the Over 4.5 market at around 5.0 for a token stake as early goal cover at a much better price and then keep an eye on the Over 2.5 market.
Back the Over 2.5 market at 4.0 at any stage during the match or alternatively back the Over 1.5 at 2.0 at any stage of the match.
Final Score: 1 - 0. Goal Times: 89 mins.
No result for our pre-market suggestions but a late goal winner for Russia went in at 4.40 for the Over 0.5 goals and Russia were at 5.0 for the match odds and the Over 1.5 market reached 55.0 into 6.0.
In-play stats showed plenty of goal attempts but only one or two actually on target for Russia but managed one late goal for the win.

Regards
Betrader.