What's the Most Money You've Spent RESEARCHING a Bet You Didn't Place?

[FadeThePublic]

Raised.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Not raised because I never research lol

Starting to think that makes me accidentally smarter than everyone here?

 

[oli_sussex]

Not raised.

Criteria prevents it.

 

[Klaus]

Not raised.

Pre-commitment rule prevents it.

 

[DublinDegen]

not raised because i never research either... me and princess are the same bettor from opposite ends of the spectrum apparently...

 

[TaffyTipster]

Princess and Conor both not raising hands but for completely different reasons.

 

[SharpEddie47]

That's actually interesting.

Zero research means no sunk cost trap on the research side. You're only fighting impulse.

Six hours of research means fighting sunk cost AND impulse.

Maybe over-research creates its own version of the problem.

 

[Klaus]

Eddie identifying important phenomenon.

Research increases win rate but also increases commitment bias toward betting.

Optimal research level: enough to identify genuine edge. No more.

Additional research beyond that point generates sunk cost pressure without proportional edge increase.

 

[FadeThePublic]

So there's a research sweet spot.

Enough to find real edges. Not so much you feel obligated to bet regardless.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Nobody talks about this.

Every betting education resource says "do more research, be more analytical."

Nobody says "be careful because extensive research creates psychological pressure to bet even bad spots."

 

[oli_sussex]

Because betting education content is produced by people who profit from bettors betting.

More research = more serious bettors = more volume = more revenue for books.

"Research more" is advice that serves the industry.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Oli that's dark but probably true.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Alright.

So the takeaways from this thread:

True ROI is lower than most people calculate once you factor research time and subscription costs.

Sunk cost from research creates pressure to place bad bets.

Pre-committing to minimum edge criteria before research starts is the solution.

And Princess and Conor are accidentally avoiding one specific trap by not researching at all.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Finally winning at something in this forum!!

 

[DublinDegen]

yeah we won the no-research award... losing everything else but at least theres that...

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Made me think about something I'd never actually put numbers to.

Going to start tracking research hours alongside bet results.

Suspect I won't like what I find.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Same.

Also going to try setting my edge criteria BEFORE I start analyzing.

Probably won't stick to it.

But gonna try.

 

[Klaus]

True cost accounting and pre-commitment rules should be standard practice.

Are not standard practice.

Gap between should and is explains much of recreational bettor losses.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Started this thinking I was a net positive bettor.

Now not entirely sure.

Thanks for that Eddie.

 

[SharpEddie47]

You're welcome Fade.

We're all slightly less confident in our profitability than we were an hour ago.

Progress.