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Weekly Sports Betting.

betrader

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Good morning everyone,

Results for yesterday show, even with just a few goals in anticipation, you can often see much better in-play value and this is where the exchanges beat the bookmakers hands down all day long in terms of being able to achieve much better value over sp.
Another market example I was trading last night was Benfica also good for 2 - 3+ goals on the home leg and in anticipation the Over 2.5 started life odds-on at around 1.40 yet during the match that market touched much better value highs of 2.80 and 2.86 between goals before it won - also similar to Graafschap the match odds for Benfica also recovered to win initially from a high of 3.70 with the equalizer and then the later goal victory.

15:00 - Chelsea (1.32) vs Burnley (13.0) Final Score: 3 - 0. Goal Times: 27, 38, 49 mins.
We have 3 - 3+ goals for the H2H on this one so the Over 2.5 market looks to be vulnerable at it's current 1.76 but if Burnley can keep it tighter we may see some better prices available for that particular market.
Chelsea have the upper hand but both teams scoring is not out of the question so some match odds swings are a possibility.
The correct score - any other home win market could offer some early cover priced at 5.0 if we see an early run of home goals.
Over 2.5 market high @ 2.44 won. AOHW Market - Initial High: 10.0 Low: 1.60 @ G3.

15:00 - Leicester (1.68) vs Southampton (5.70) Final Score: 1 - 2. Goal Times: 14, 19, 82 mins.

The H2H for these is fairly average on 2 - 3 or so goals with some lower scorers but with the exception of the latest 9 - 0 win for Leicester, the market are not anticipating anywhere near a repeat performance for this home leg.
Worth covering a back bet on the correct score - any other home win market at 8.0 in case we see a strong home run but if not we should see some better in-play prices for the Over 2.5 market currently priced at 1.71 should it run a bit tighter.
Over 2.5 market highs: 2.02 - 1.10 @ G2 - 2.30 won. AOHW Market - Initial High: 13.0 Low: 5.60 @ 1 - 0.

Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Good morning everyone,

Yesterdays results are updated and we managed a couple more Over 2.5 goal markets with both matches scoring 3 goals but in general we are not in a free/higher scoring period across many of the main leagues.
This thread was originally going to be a betting thread but as a trader I look at many other aspects such as achieving better value so it is up to you how you approach it but to keep things simple but if I see some potential winning value on the Over 2.5 markets I will point it out.
Quite often I look to use some token cover on other bigger priced markets while I ultimately look to achieve improved in-play value for the Over 2.5 markets and that is the main betting/trading strategy I am working on.
Another match to keep your eye on later is the 20:00 - PSG vs Monaco encounter with good home potential in the 3 - 4 + goal region but the flip side of that expectation is that the Overs markets are short on price but later runs of goals are not uncommon.

15:00 - Excelsior Virton (1.67) vs Lokeren (5.60). Final Score: 1 - 2. Goal Times: 5, 30, 90 mins.
We have two head to head encounters with both ending four goals with Virton winning both matches last year and I expect the home team to stand a good chance of maintaining their winning position.
The Over 2.5 market is balanced with a 2 - 3 goal view at 1.94 and I think there is some value there at the starting price and we could see that topple today. Interestingly the CS - any other home win market is around 9.6 so that for me would be worth some cover and then look for some better value on the Over 2.5 market, but from a betting point of view the O2.5 starting price seems reasonable enough.
AOHW Market - no show. Over 2.5 Market - Initial High 2.12 - 1.08 @ G2 - 4.40 high & won.

20:00 - Braga (1.30) vs Tondela (12.0). Final Score: 2 - 1. Goal Times: 37, 79, 90+1 mins.

Braga look good for the win with some good recent scoring performances we could see an Over 2.5 market upset here today.
It is noted that some of the H2H's have run to just single goals but in general I think it has a good chance based on more recent scoring form.
Not a super price at 1.75 but it does have some value, so I will back my usual any other home win market currently at 5.30 which offers early home goal cover in pursuit of a better 2.5 price/trade which would could look a bit better after 20 - 25 minutes of play if it does run slower.
AOHW Market - No Show. Over 2.5 Market: Initial High - 3.75 - 1.80 @ G1 - 8.20 - 2.40 @ G2 - 6.0 and won.

Good luck...
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Good morning everyone,

Both yesterdays matches went Over 2.5 goals with some good prices on route with highs of 4.40 for Virton and 8.20 for Braga which both included a late goal winner. It shows how those seemingly modest starting prices can react during play and this is where the exchanges can really pay dividends.
Quite a few more useful teams are struggling like Virton went two goals down initially and lost but Braga on the other hand in their match recovered their match odds from a high of 11.0 before taking the match 2 - 1 with a late run.
Monaco kept the aforementioned PSG to a 3 - 3 draw with an early wave of goals shows at least the benefit of covering an early goals market but some of the more likely match odds can be a bit shakey at the moment.
From a betting point of view one may consider using the keep facility at better prices and from a trading point of view the removal and re-application of risk during the match can often build some very nice positions and free bets etc between goals.

As an example, my staking techniques cover around a 1/5th of my normal stake (depending on goal likelihood) on say an early any other home win market cover so this way it offers useful early specific goal cover usually at decent prices but one can also consider covering say an Over 4.5 or 5.5 in the same way which offers goal cover from any team to score. This smaller initial stake is usually easily covered with the improved Over 2.5 value achieved later in the match as you can see from some of those much higher priced figures and price swings and when it gets off to a good start we can often see a profit from the early trade.

I will take a look at the football later on but in the meantime this post offers a better idea of what I am looking at.
So far we have had 5 out of 5 - Over 2.5 results with 3 of those markets winning from highs of 8.20, 6.20 and 6.0, and the other 2 over even money so I am sure you can see a useful strategy in the making when it comes to finding improved in-play value which can be used for both betting and trading.

Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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I have a match available to look at for this evening plus a couple of others on my shortlist but in general these can offer less consistency than what I normally get involved in. PL2 can still produce some decent results and this one is currently going in-play on the exchanges and may produce a result mainly targeting the match odds market.

19:00 - PL2 - Derby U23 (1.93) vs Tottenham U23 (3.40) Final Score: 2 - 2. Goal Times: 10, 18, 45+, 73 mins.
Decent recent scoring form from Derby offers up a potential win at 1.93 for their match odds and we could see 2 - 3 goals for this one.
The Over 2.5 is thin on price and currently at 1.40 and it is noted that a couple of their last 5 H2H's have ended in just one goal but with Derby winning 4 out of the last 5 H2H's and with Tottenham losing their last two away fixtures we could see a higher positioned Derby in with a chance at a reasonable price today.
I will initially back Derby in the match odds market with a view to topping that up at a bigger price if they do go a goal down.
There may not be Flashscores in-play stats for PL2 but looking at the Overs markets there appears to be very little value at sp based on general H2H scoring inconsistencies, but it may offer some trading opportunity at a better price later on.

Good Luck.
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Good morning everyone,

We got an easy enough 2.5 result from yesterdays match but difficult to justify getting on at those prices unless you are hooking them up with a couple of others in an accumulator. Derby were out to lunch but offered good trading opportunities on the match odds on the comeback trail which took an eventual low of around 4.0 as they levelled up. Tottenham for the record touched a match odds low of 1.12 and effectively lost the match in terms of that particular market and the draw was as high as 12.50 and winning.
From a trading point of view there are a few other options you can look at if you expect your favoured team to at least have some kind of response considering at the time they would have needed 3 goals to actually win the match, but from a betting point of view it was an outright loser.

Nothing official for today but couple to keep your eye on tonight are 18:00 - Porto and 21:15 - Benfica playing cup matches this evening and show dominance on the H2H and 3 - 3 + goals for those are typical.
19:45 - Inter should get 2 - 3+ goals playing against Cagliari
in the Coppa but we could see some drift on the Over 2.5 at some stage which is initially priced at 1.68.

I may just bundle these together into a treble Over 2.5 acca as I won't be around to trade them and good luck if you do take a look.

Results Update. ;) 3 way O2.5 treble/acca returned odds up to 3/1.
Porto vs Varzim. Final Score: 2 - 1.
Benfica vs Rio Ave. Final Score: 3 - 2.
Inter vs Cagliari. Final Score: 4 - 1.


Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Good morning everyone,

We had a decent three way Over 2.5 treble result for Tuesday's play all running Over 2.5 goals and although the prices on an individual level are not great they can boost the odds very nicely when bundled together, and this is what I am looking to do with many of the more obviously priced tennis selections this coming season.
In terms of the football, looking back, I think pretty much every football match mentioned thus far on my return has run over 2.5 goals and this is my intention this year to mainly focus on this one market for the footie which will free up much of the time for the tennis.

Time for many, including myself, is always an issue when it comes to trading so I will attempt to throw in bets where I can and I do have a low risk/high yield betting system in the making designed for the tennis markets which is currently under development.

We should have some football to look at over the weekend so I will get back in due course with any updates.

Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Good Morning Everyone,

Portugal - 19:00 - Porto (1.60) vs Braga (6.60). Final Score: 1 - 2. Goal Times: 5, 58, 75 mins.

Good chance to see a few goals here and typically they have a decent H2H result and both are in fine scoring form at present.
Porto go off as favourites and are well clear on points but if we do see a closer match we could see some match odds swings on route.
Betting - The Over 2.5 market is priced at 1.93 on BF and looks reasonable value at the starting price.
Trading - Initially I am going to have my normal 1/5 token back bet on the Correct Score - any other home win market at odds of 8.20 - 9.40 and see if I can find some better in-play value on the Over 2.5 market.
AOHW Market - No Show. Over 2.5 Market - Highs: 2.10, 2.44, 1.99 won.


Good luck
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Good morning Everyone,

Interesting match with Porto who in fact missed 2 penalties which would have shaped a much different outcome to the match, but nevertheless we managed another over 2.5 market result.
Plenty of trading opportunities available today for my shortlist but here I will run with a 3 way Over 2.5 treble and trading wise we may see better prices on these in-play.
Varying odds would see well over 2/1 up to 5/2 for a successful 3 way Over 2.5 result.

14:00 - Lazio vs Sampdoria. BF odds: 1.69. Final Score: 5 - 1.
17:30 - RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin. BF odds: 1.45. Final Score: 3 - 1.

18:45 - Feyenoord vs Heerenveen. BF odds: 1.49. Final Score: 3 - 1.

Good luck
Betrader.
 
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doramagnusson

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Betting should be done in the sport in which you are well versed. This increases your chance of success. The most popular bet on football, as it is the favorite sport for most people. ESports is gaining considerable popularity.
 

betrader

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Betting should be done in the sport in which you are well versed. This increases your chance of success. The most popular bet on football, as it is the favorite sport for most people. ESports is gaining considerable popularity.
Many thanks for the sound advice doramagnusson and welcome to the forum šŸ‘
 

betrader

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Good morning everyone,

We managed a more convincing Over 2.5 market accumulator success for yesterday and some decent scoring throughout for my own daily trading shortlist keeps things moving in a positive direction.
We have another Over 2.5 market accumulator for Sunday paying out odds of up to 2.8/1 if we pull off another successful treble.

13:00 - Galatasaray vs Denizlispor. BF Odds: 1.55. Final Score: 2 - 1.
15:00 - Villarreal vs Espanyol. BF Odds: 1.93. Final Score: 1 - 2.
20:00 - Barcelona vs Granada. BF Odds: 1.36. Final Score: 1 - 0.


Here is a link for access to a useful accumulator calculator.

Good luck.
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Good morning everyone,

Barcelona upset the accumulator party yesterday with a less than convincing performance producing just one goal but for them that won them the match and trading wise it was a steady enough day when I got the chance to sit down and take a look at a few.

Not a great deal on today and my focus is on the early morning tennis sessions but here are a couple of goal predictors of some interest.
19:00 - Jong Ajax look in good shape with a typical 3 - 5 goal likelihood on the H2H and naturally the markets for those goals are short in anticipation.
19:45 - Atalanta look fairly convincing for that match and we could see a few goals there but again the prices aren't great from the start.

Regards
Betrader.
 
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