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Weekly Sports Betting.

betrader

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Hi Everyone,

As mentioned elsewhere, I have decided to set up a betting thread and leave my other thread mainly for trading purposes but there will be some similarities in how I look to achieve better than SP value for betting as I do with my trading.

We now have the exchanges so we now get our odds moving in-play in accordance due to time lapse and scoring with the football and in-play events for points scoring with the tennis, and it is here where we can find and secure superior value potential for many of the more likely types markets.
Betting at the starting prices can offer some value from the start for some matches/events if the market is overpriced in the first place but the majority of extra value will often be available later at bigger prices in-play and this is where I am at with my betting and using the "keep" bet facility set to target those better prices.
Yesterdays two highlighted football matches for example with Italy and Spain offered a strong likelihood of at least 2-3 goals produced winning examples of Over 1.5 markets at 3.50 and 5.70 from starting odds at typical odds of around 1.25, yet touched market prices 10 - 19 times the value of their starting prices before going onto win. In terms of additional value over SP, that is massive.

Finding suitable events to bet on is a very difficult task to come out ahead over the long term and especially so when betting at the starting prices.
I am no expert bettor and that is why I trade because I can miss and still make money without actually needing to find a winning market, and this can make one a little bit sloppy when it comes to being ultra decisive in terms of finding solid bets and something I need to work on.
I am hoping that if I can achieve much better prices on my selections even where a lower strike rate may come out ahead - On that basis it will be an interesting experiment on finding in-play value rather than the usual bookmaker SP's.
If bets are not matched then they will just go down as "void" bets even if the event goes onto actually win and as an addition to this I will be looking to run some win doubles, treble accas etc using some of the more likely shorter priced selections on route.
Betfair accumulators will be set and calculated at the best pre-market price at the time of writing rather than me trawling the comparison sites.

I will run with this from tomorrow and post up by 11:00 am daily if we have any selections for the day.
Dedicated traders will be able to use the selections for the purpose of trading should you choose to do so.

I don't know of any service out there that uses regular in-play exchange keep value to make betting profits - drop in any comments if you do.

Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Daily Bets.

Criteria.


I will be looking at using a 1 point level stake risk on all selections using a 100 point betting bank with a typical 5% deduction for all winning bets.
Over time I will look to add other sports and other betting angles and strategies of interest that I want to take a look at and see how we get on.
Dedicated in-play traders can still trade in the same way and lock in any moves as free bets which would require the market to win or to hedge out at lower figures which would offer a guaranteed profit on all outcomes.
I will update the win/lose/void results at my earliest convenience and usually before the next days post and round up each week with a brief summary of plays and results.

Football - 18:30 - Romania U21 vs Northern Ireland U21
Back the Over 1.5 market at 2.0 as a keep bet.
Final Score: 3 - 0. Over 1.5 market high: 2.30 - won.

Football - 19:45 - France vs Turkey.
Back the Over 1.5 market at 2.0 as a keep bet.
Final Score: 1 - 1. Over 1.5 market high: 7.80 - won.

P&L: + 1.90 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Daily Bets.

Tennis - Moscow Open -
12:30: P.Kohlschreiber (1.70) vs P.Herbert.(2.38)

Back Kohlschreiber at 2.20 using a keep bet.
Result: Kohlschreiber wins in 2 sets. Market High: 2.30.

Football - 19:45 - England U21 vs Austria U21.
Back the Over 1.5 market at 1.80 as a keep bet.
Final Score: 5 - 1. Over 1.5 market won but unmatched - Void Bet.

Running P&L: + 2.85 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Daily Bets.

No Selections For Today.

Regards
Betrader.
 

betrader

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Daily Bets.

Tennis - ATP Antwerp - 15:30: G. Monfils (1.37) vs J. Sinner (3.55).
Back Monfils using a keep bet at 1.90.
Result: Sinner wins in 2 sets. Price Matched & Lost.

Running P&L: + 1.85 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Daily Bets.

Football - 17:30 - Erzgebirge vs Nurnberg.
Back the Over 2.5 market using a keep bet at 3.0
Final Score: 4 - 3. Over 2.5 market high: 5.0 - Won.

Running P&L: + 3.75 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Daily Bets.

Football - 12:00 - Jahn Regensburg vs SV Sandhausen.
Back the Over 2.5 market using a keep bet at 2.50
Final Score: 1 - 0. Over 2.5 market matched & lost.

Football - 15:00 - Chelsea vs Newcastle.
Back the Over 2.5 market using a keep bet at 2.0.
Final Score: 1 - 0. Over 2.5 market matched & lost.

Running Total: + 1.75 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Good afternoon everyone,

Very little time at the moment for the trading thread as that requires much more input watching prices and so forth, but in the meantime I will look to carry on with this betting thread and see if we can start to target some better value prices.
We have some football on later so I will look to get anything for today up by 3:00pm but any future posts will be by midday.

Regards
Betrader.
 

betrader

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Daily Betting Selections - 30th October 2019.

19:45 - Celtic vs St Mirren.
Back the Over 3.5 market at 2.30 or best price available.
Final Score: 2 - 0. Over 3.5 Market Lost.

20:00 - Sassuolo vs Fiorentina.
Match Odds - Back Sassuolo to win at 3.25 or best price available.
Final Score: 1 - 2. Match Odds Market Lost.

20:15 - Benfica vs Portimonense.
Back the Over 3.5 market at 2.50 or best price available.
Final Score: 4 - 0. Over 3.5 Market Won.

Daily P&L: - 0.575 pts.
Running Total: + 1.18 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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Giresse

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Benfica vs
Daily Betting Selections - 30th October 2019.

19:45 - Celtic vs St Mirren.
Back the Over 3.5 market at 2.30 or best price available.

20:00 - Sassuolo vs Fiorentina.
Match Odds - Back Sassuolo to win at 3.25 or best price available.

20:15 - Benfica vs Portimonense.
Back the Over 3.5 market at 2.50 or best price available.

Regards

Betrader.
Benfica vs Portimonense --- Home and Away Index
1572463538850.png
 

betrader

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Daily Betting Selections - 31st October 2019.

Plenty of trading opportunities for today but here we have a couple of cup matches where we could see some better in-play value at some point during the match. Yesterday's matches were particularly interesting for traders despite losing around 0.5 pts for outright win markets.
My longer term strategy and future business will to always be to trade selections and find better value but it will be interesting to see if we can find a few winners on route.
All bets here will be using a 1 point level stake on all selections with a 5% deduction for all winning bets.

16:30 - FC Copenhagen vs FC Nordsjaelland.
Back the Over 2.5 market using a keep bet at 2.50.
Final Score: 4 - 1. Void Bet Not Matched.

19:15 - AGF (Aarhus) vs OB (Odense).
Back the Over 2.5 market using a keep bet at 4.0.
Final Score: 1 - 0. Over 2.5 Market Lost.

Daily P&L: - 1.0 pts.
Running Total: 0.18 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Daily Betting Selections - 01st November 2019.

19:00 - De Graffschap vs Excelsior.
Back the Over 3.5 market using a keep bet at 5.0
Final Score: 0 - 0. Over 3.5 Market Lost.

19:00 - PEC Zwolle vs Ajax.
Back the Over 2.5 market using a keep bet at 2.0
Final Score: 2 - 4. Void Bet - Not Matched.

19:45 - Dijon vs PSG.
Back the Over 2.5 market using a keep bet at 2.0
Final Score: 2 - 1. Void Bet - Not Matched.

Daily P&L: - 1.0 pts.
Running Total: - 0.82 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Love to follow your daily bets. Excellent!
Thanks dude! - if only I were any good at it lol.... I will keep playing around with it and see what we can find šŸ‘
 

betrader

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Daily Betting Selections - 02nd November 2019.

We pulled in a nice winner but unfortunately it was Benfica that let us down by just one goal for the double which would have made nearly 5 points on the day. As mentioned many markets are just scrapping by at the moment with more typical lower scorelines to secure wins and we were lucky on a couple of occasions to get some winning momentum.
I have set my acca calculator to 5% deduction on each selection which is I think how BF take the commissions on individual wins so they don't lose out on overall commissions for failed combinations.
Anyone using a bookmaker will not pay any tax but would probably get slightly shorter prices than BF so I think the overall test is fair.

3 Way Accumulator/Treble. - 1.0 pts.

14:30 - RB Leipzig vs Mainz. Over 2.5 Market @ 1.43 - Final Score: 8 - 0.
18:00 - Benfica vs Rio Ave. Over 2.5 Market @ 1.54 - Final Score: 2 - 0.
19:45 - AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente. Over 2.5 market @ 1.46 - Final Score: 3 - 0.

3 Way Accumulator/Treble. + 2.72 pts.


14:00 - Roma vs Napoli. Over 2.5 market @ 1.65 - Final Score: 2 - 1.
15:00 - Watford vs Chelsea. Over 2.5 Market @ 1.73 - Final Score: 1 - 2.
15:00 - Levante vs Barcelona. Over 2.5 Market @ 1.38 - Final Score: 3 - 1.

Daily P&L: + 1.72 pts
Running Total: + 0.90 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Daily Betting Selections - 03rd November 2019.

3 Way Accumulator/Treble - 4.57/1.

14:00 - Crystal Palace vs Leicester. Over 2.5 Market @ 2.14 - Final Score: 0 - 2.
15:00 - Rangers vs Hearts. Over 2.5 Market @ 1.61 - Final Score: 3 - 0.
17:00 - FC Copenhagen vs SonderjyskE. Over 2.5 Market @ 1.73 - Final Score: 3 - 0.

Daily P&L: - 1.0 pts.

Running Total: - 0.10 pts.


Regards
Betrader.
 
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betrader

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Good morning everyone,

Another close miss yesterday would have made a nice treble.
Trading wise ideally I am looking for matches that could run tighter and provide much better later trading value and the Crystal Palace match was one of those with an away advantage that provided good coverage for later trades of interest but unfortunately that aspect of the match in particular made it a potential struggler for the 3 goals required for the treble and I knew it could have been a mistake for betting and it was.
I do find it difficult as a trader to look at markets from a win only point of view but I am looking at developing a method of selection where I can get around that mentality on a mechanical basis.
As per usual I do run over the individual results and for example Over 2.5's as individual bets gave 7/9 winners and around a 1.78 pt profit at sp which isn't great for so many bets and winners and not what they were designed to be used for. From a trading point of view I do consider that many of those 2.5 markets were worth good money in-play and easily made decent money over the 9 selections and of course even the ones that didn't win can still make money offering a very high trading strike rate for 1.5's/2.5's - food for thought perhaps for anyone struggling to make money from betting.

I am back at work for some long night shifts this week but generally it will be a quieter week for this post until next weekend.
In the meantime many thanks for tuning in and please feel free to post up any strategy ideas based on my selections/prices/strike rate etc.

Regards
Betrader.
 
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Giresse

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lots of red there Betrader, I think you need to re-consider your betting strategy, focus more on the games with lower odds as I see that's where you bring real value.
 

betrader

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lots of red there Betrader, I think you need to re-consider your betting strategy, focus more on the games with lower odds as I see that's where you bring real value.
Many thanks for the advice Giresse and red was just my colour of choice to highlight the results lol.... I have very little time at the moment and have decided to focus more of my spare time on my trading rather than posting on a forum, but maybe you can show us all how it should be done with your new thread :).
Good luck everyone šŸ‘
 

betrader

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Good evening everyone and happy new year to all.

Work has now subsided since the massive xmas rush so I now have a few less hours and back to normal and a bit more time to focus on my betting and trading so I will look to post up some tips and stuff in due course and add a bit of flavour to the forum.
The new tennis season is now underway so there will be plenty to keep me busy for the next 11 months or so and the football is pretty much ongoing and always something to look at most weeks.

This evening (Friday) I will be looking the 19:00 De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht match among others which on paper looks good for possibly 3 - 4 goals and as usual in-play value can often pay dividends if we do get some time lapse between goals.
DeGraffschap look good for the win but are no price currently at 1.15, and so the goal markets should offer a bit more value.

Final Score: 2 - 1. Goal Times: 23, 67, 90+5 mins.
Summary: An ideal slower scoring match is where you find the better prices on offer and Graafschap went a goal down and drifted to 3.65 for the match odds into 1.60 as they levelled at 1 - 1 and drifted up to a whopping 13.0 high before they scored the late winner.
Goal markets within the 3 - 4 goal prediction saw a late Over 2.5 market example at highs of 6.20 before the late goal.
The in-play stats (flashscores) were building very nicely for Graafschap in the second half and the final result was no surprise based on pre-market analysis.

Regards
Betrader.
 
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