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Colorado State vs Texas Prediction 8-31-24

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Matt Fargo Sports Colorado State +35

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NCAAF 08/31 3:30 PM Colorado State vs Texas
PICK: Colorado State 35
s is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our Saturday Free Play. This line opened Texas -35 to -36 and was bet down to -32 in some places over a week ago but as expected, the public money is coming back in on the Longhorns and the number is rising again. They come into the season with National Championship aspirations and with the comes inflated number especially early on in the season against teams it should push around. This is not a layup though as Texas should not have any worries about losing but what they show is the big story. The Longhorns have a game against Michigan on deck and it is very unlikely they open up the entire playbook here. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses top five receivers. The Longhorns also lost leading rusher Jonathan Brooks and his replacement, CJ Baxter, was lost for the season with a torn ACL and PCL. The defense will be stout once again but the Longhorns do have a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. Colorado St. put together five straight winning seasons from 2013-2017 but now they have a string of six straight losing campaigns culminating with its 5-7 record last year. The Rams had a chance to make it to a bowl game but lost its season finale as a favorite at Hawaii. Four of the seven losses were by one possession so there was progress last season following back-to-back 3-9 campaigns and they are looking for the breakthrough. Head coach Jay Norvell has this team going in the right direction entering his third season after proven success at Nevada where he got out at the right time. The offense nearly doubled its output, going from 13.2 ppg in 2022 to 26.1 ppg in 2023 thanks to the top passing game in the MWC that finished No. 9 in the country led by all MWC quarterback Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. His top target Tory Horton returns and while they lose their leading rusher, there was not much there anyway. The offensive line returns four of five starters. The defense regressed from 2022 but the Rams are athletic and will show improvement. Three of their top four tacklers that combined for 296 tackles are back and the secondary is loaded. Play (187) Colorado St. Rams

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2024 AFC North Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo

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Regular Season Win Totals and AFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Over -120 Under +100~ AFC North Winner +145 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,000
Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Over -125 Under +100 ~ AFC North Winner +140 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,300
Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ AFC North Winner +600 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,000
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Over +120 Under -145 ~ AFC North Winner +800 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000

Coaching Changes
None

Team Previews

Baltimore Ravens: 14-5 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 8-10-1 O/U
Won AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 2

Notable Additions: RB Derrick Henry, OT Josh Jones, LB Chris Board

Notable Losses: QB Tyler Huntley, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, OT Morgan Moses, G Kevin Zeitler, G John Simpson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB Tyus Bowser, LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Geno Stone

Notable Draft Selections: CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten, DE Adisa Isaac, WR Deonvtez Walker, CB T.J. Tampa

Baltimore gained the No. 1 Seed in the AFC last season as it put together an impressive 13-3 record before dropping their meaningless Week 17 game where they rested most starters. The three meaningful losses were by a combined 12 points and they rolled into the Divisional Round of the playoffs with a blowout win over Houston before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship as they committed three turnovers, two in the redzone. Despite going through a fairly big overhaul, the Ravens have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine. While they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL based on opponent win percentage from last season, the Ravens have the No. 1 Net Rest advantage as they get 16 more days of rest than their opponents (in contrast, the 49ers have the worst at -21 days). The slate is tough early on with four of their first five games against Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati, all of which are in the top ten in Super Bowl odds.

The 10.5 wins look to be spot on as we see about 12 games that are swing games so going just 6-6 in those will give them the over but in all actuality, the Ravens should win more than those as we are counting all division games in that mix. The net rest edge is a huge advantage as well as they caught a break with the condensed grouping of some schedules is affecting a lot of teams. The Ravens are not the favorites to win the AFC North which is based on their schedule and personnel changes but they will be right there although there is no value on this number after coming in at +220 last season. Barring significant injury, getting to and winning the Super Bowl is in play but as is the case again, the AFC is loaded and wide open.


Cincinnati Bengals: 9-8 ~ 1-5 AFC North ~ 7-8-2 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 17

Notable Additions: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, S Vonn Bell

Notable Losses: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Nick Scott

Notable Draft Selections: OT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, NT McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All, CB Josh Newton

The Bengals had a trying 2023 season but somehow were still in the playoff mix at 8-6 but back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh and Kansas City did them in yet a 9-8 finish was still impressive. It is safe to say the success of Cincinnati revolves around the health of quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals went 5-5 in games he played but four of those losses were when he was not healthy, three with his calf injury and the final one when he hurt his wrist against Baltimore. Keeping him upright is of the utmost importance and after allowing 50 sacks last season, the offensive line has been upgraded with Trent Brown and draft pick Amarius Mims. Team veterans Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone but there should be no drop-off in either unit. While a lot of the blame for missing the playoffs was because Burrow was rarely 100 percent, the defense has to take most, if not all of the blame. The Bengals were No. 28 in Defensive EPA including No. 29 against the run and No. 25 against the pass. There have been changes along the line and in the secondary but will it be enough? The first half of the schedule is a must for a quick start as they face five teams that went a combined 24-61 and two of their toughest games against Baltimore and Philadelphia are both at home. Five of the last eight games are on the road.

The Bengals do have slightly higher odds across the board to win the AFC North, AFC and Super Bowl from last season yet their regular season win total is higher than it was in 2023. That might not make much sense but the makeup of this team justifies it. The schedule is backloaded so if Cincinnati gets off to a hot start which it should, it can use that momentum to steal some games in the second half so going over the win total is conceivable as is winning the AFC North. The makeup of this team refers to the fact the Bengals are awful on defense without making enough improvement and they will not be able to make a playoff run without a potent defense so making any move on winning the conference or the Super Bowl seems a stretch.


Cleveland Browns: 11-7 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 11-6-1 O/U
Finished 2nd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 1

Notable Additions: QB Jameis Winston, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Nyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Hakeem Adeniji, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Devin Bush, CB Tony Brown

Notable Losses: QB Joe Flacco, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris, DT Shelby Harris, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Anthony Walker, LB Sione Takitaki, S Duron Harmon

Notable Draft Selections: DT Michael Hall, G Zak Zinter

Cleveland was in the same boat last season as Cincinnati as it had quarterback issues but the difference between the Browns and Bengals was that the Browns had a defense, actually, one of the best in the league. It did not do them any good in the playoffs as they were bounced by Houston in a blowout but going 11-7 possibly gives them a lot to look forward to. No one saw Joe Flacco coming from his couch to take the Browns into the postseason but now it is time for Deshawn Watson to show his worth. Suspensions and injuries have limited him to 11 games in Cleveland but only four of those resulted in a passer rating of 90 or higher so he needs to revert to his time in Houston. The offense was also able to overcome the loss of running back Nick Chubb to have an average running game but he will not be ready to start the season so the signings of Nyheim Hines and D'Onta Foreman is a good temporary fix. The defense should be just as good with the only significant loss being linebacker Anthony Walker. The offense has a chance to come together early as after the opener at home against Dallas, the Browns face the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders and Commanders in consecutive weeks although three of those are on the road and then 10 of the last 12 games are against legitimate playoff teams.

Looking at this schedule makes it hard to find nine wins as there are only a few sure wins with numerous swing games, a very tough division and crossover games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs. For a team that finished with 11 wins and now having an 8.5 number put on them and not having much change going into this season shows the oddsmakers know this team overachieved so taking the under at plus money is the better option based on this slate and with the injury prone Watson under center with a turnover machine as his backup. That being said, there is no value on the division number and this is not a Super Bowl ready team and while missing the playoffs is juiced at -175, it like the safe bet.


Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-8 ~ 5-1 AFC North ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 7-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 3

Notable Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, QB Kyle Allen, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, WR Quez Watkins, DT Dean Lowry, LB Patrick Queen, CB Donte Jackson, S DeShon Elliott, P Cameron Johnston

Notable Losses: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, C Mason Cole, DT Armon Watts, OLB Markus Golden, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Blake Martinez, CB Levi Wallace, CB Chandon Sullivan, CB James Pierre, S Patrick Peterson, S Keanu Neal

Notable Draft Selections: OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson, C Mason McCormick

The Steelers came away with another winning season to sneak into the playoffs but they were no match for Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a losing record and head coach Mike Tomlin owns a run of 17 straight seasons at .500 or above. There have been three Super Bowls including two wins, with Tomlin going 1-1, but they have not made it since 2010 and this is likely not the year. Pittsburgh is a totally different team on offense from the start of last season, from offensive coordinator right down to the quarterback room. The Kenny Pickett experiment did not work out and he is out along with Mason Rudolph and they brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and neither have shown much the last couple years to prove to turn around an offense that was No. 23 in Passing EPA last season. They will again rely on the running game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The defense once again was solid and it all revolves around T.J. Watt as Pittsburgh was 8-2 when he played and 1-6 when he did not but it needs to figure out to succeed around him as while his 19 sacks were outstanding, only one other player had more than four sacks. A big addition is linebacker Patrick Queen coming over from the division rival Ravens and the secondary improved with Donte Jackson and DeShon Elliott coming over from Carolina and Miami respectively to compliment Joey Porter, Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick. But it all comes down to Watt staying healthy.

Since 2004, Pittsburgh has been an over machine. It is 14-6 to the over and making that even more impressive is their lowest preseason win total was 7.5 twice and four of the six under wins were when they had a double-digit win total. The Steelers have cashed the over in 11 of 13 seasons when it is single digits. Does the train keep rolling or is it time to deboard? Pittsburgh has the most bizarre schedule as its first nine games are against non-vision foes and seven of those are winnable but they cannot slip up as Kansas City and Philadelphia are wrapped around the six division games in the final eight. There are just so many unknowns to make a speculation of the long term performance of this team so looking at in-season odds is the way go.

 

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Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres Prediction 9-2-24

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Matt Fargo Sports San Diego Padres -1.5

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MLB 09/02 6:40 PM Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres -1.5
s is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES RL for our Monday Free Play. Detroit had dropped two straight games following a six-game winning streak but those six wins were against the White Sox and Angels, the two worst teams in the American League. The Tigers got another gem from Skubal on Saturday who has all but locked up the American League Cy Young and yesterday made it eight wins over their last 10 games. Detroit is now two games over .500 and trails Minnesota and Kansas City by five games for that final Wild Card spot and that might be too far back at this point with three teams to pass. San Diego took two of three in Tampa Bay to make it a 4-3 roadtrip and with the Dodgers loss yesterday, the Padres are now five games back in the National League West, tied with Arizona. Those two sit atop the National League Wild Card standings, three games ahead of the Braves. San Diego is back home where it is 37-32 including 11-4 over its last 15 games with the offense that is surging yet struggles in four of its last five games from the recent roadtrip. Ty Madden was supposed to get the start yesterday but the Tigers elected to go with Beau Brieske in a bullpen game and they got a solid effort from Brant Hurter. Madden will be making his second start following a very solid Major League debut as he allowed one earned run on four hits and three walks while striking out just two. However, that came against the hapless White Sox so he had a dream opener but now things get a lot tougher. Joe Musgrove has made four starts since coming back from injury and he is pitching great with a 1.66 ERA and he is starting to get stretched out as he is coming off a 94-pitch effort, his highest thus far. He has another good matchup here against a bad offense. He has not allowed an earned run in his two home starts since his return and he will continue his success here on Monday with the value taking the runline in what should be a comfortable win. Play (920) San Diego Padres -1.5 Runs

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Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick 9-3-24

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Matt Fargo Sports Tampa Bay Rays -108

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MLB 09/03 6:50 PM Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays -108
s is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our Tuesday Free Play. It has been a lost season for Tampa Bay which has arguably the best young rotation in baseball when healthy but 2024 has not been a season where healthy was in play. The Rays are using the final month of the season to get the young guns some work to keep them limber but also make sure there are no setbacks. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight and six of its last eight games and it has been the offense which has been the letdown, averaging 2.7 rpg in those six losses. Minnesota has won two straight games following a horrible end to August where they went 3-9 over their final 12 games but have been able to stay afloat as the Guardians and Royals have also had their own recent struggles. The Twins are 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the American League Central and they have a big series against the Royals on deck with their pitching having taken a slight plunge of late along with the offense which we expect to struggle tonight. One of the young arms for Tampa Bay that it hopes to have at 100 percent next season is Jeffrey Springs who got into the rotation is 2022 and put up a 2.46 ERA in 33 games including 25 starts. He then went through Tommy John surgery and has made only nine starts the last two seasons but he is on the road to recovery. In his last start, he went five innings for the fourth time and the fourth in his past five games as he struck out a season-high nine batters and allowed just a pair of walks and a hit. Five innings is likely his max and he has a good bullpen behind him. David Festa is a solid young arm for the Twins and he has been pitching well after a rocky start as he has a 3.06 ERA since late July in six starts and one relief appearance but that is over just 32.1 innings and has yet to hit 90 pitches. Normally, this is not an issue with the Twins having a solid bullpen but tonight they are in a tough spot as the Twins are shorthanded as Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands all worked on Sunday and Monday with those three having a collective 2.78 ERA over 168.1 innings. Play (964) Tampa Bay Rays

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Free Pick 9-5-24

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Matt Fargo Sports Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

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MLB 09/05 6:40 PM Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
s is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RL for our Thursday Free Play. Miami did pick up the win last night and while it counts as a victory as a left-handed starter, they struggled against McKenzie Gore and their of their three runs against the bullpen, only one was against a lefty. Different night same deal. It is a steeper price but for a good reason and we are going value with the runline. This is the auto fade Miami spot as the Marlins are averaging 4.0 rpg since July 28 and the offense has been bad all season as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .293 wOBA, .670 OPS and a .133 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 51 of 91 games and this includes getting shut out nine times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been money the other way as they are 10-39 while averaging 3.1 rpg with a .228 average and a .639 OPS, third and second worst in the league respectively and of those 39 losses, 34 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 3.8 rpg. The Phillies took both games in Toronto and have won four straight to remain seven games ahead of the Braves in the National League East. They have also won four straight games on the road which gets them to four games over .500 on the highway which is surprisingly low considering their .257 average is sixth best in baseball while sitting No. 10 in wOBA, wRC+ and OPS. The pitching has been ever better as Philadelphia is No. 2 in xFIP and No. 5 in K-BB% but the record issue is that they are 4-1 on the road in one run games. The recent form for Ranger Suarez has not been great as he has allowed four runs or more in four of his last six starts but three of those were at home where he does have a solid 3.26 ERA and 1.15 WHIP but he has been better on the road with a 2.79 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Of 81 pitchers that have logged at least 60 road innings, that ERA is No. 10 and the WHIP in No. 6 while his 2.99 xFIP in No. 5. One of those recent poor home starts came against Miami of all teams as he allowed a season-high six runs and do not think he has forgotten that. He blanked the Marlins in Miami over seven innings prior to that. Adam Oller gets the ball for Miami and after a rough Major League debut, he has settle down in his last two starts, allowing one run over 11.2 combined innings. However, those were against the Cubs and Giants whose offenses do not come close to matching that of the Phillies nor do they come close to Arizona, the team that tagged him for five runs in 4.2 innings in that opener. Play (953) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 Runs

MLB +$4,950 L53 Plays and Thursday is a day not to miss as Fargo has his National League Game of the Year! Game of the Years plays are a PERFECT 5-0 YTD! Over the last Two NFL Regular Seasons, he is 124-95-3 (57 percent) and brought home +$19,790! NFL Thursday-Friday Week 1 posted with Sunday full card on the way!



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Seattle Mariner vs St. Louis Cardinals 9-6-24

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Matt Fargo Sports St. Louis Cardinals -108

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MLB 09/06 8:15 PM Seattle Mariners vs St Louis Cardinals
PICK: St Louis Cardinals -108
s is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our Friday Free Play. St. Louis took two of three against both the Yankees and Brewers to complete a 4-2 roadtrip which got it to two games over .500 keeping its slim playoff hopes alive. The Cardinals are five games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League and return home where they are 36-32 and laying a small price in this series opener. A 1-7 run in mid-August could have derailed them but the bats have come to life as since August 21, St. Louis has a .759 OPS which is No. 9 in baseball to go along with a 112 wRC+ which is also No. 9. Seattle had lost four straight games but was able to salvage the final two games in Oakland to get back over .500. The Mariners have been awful on the road at 30-42 and are still overpriced because of the pitching as this offense, despite 22 runs the past two games, remains a liability. Seattle is ahead of only the Pirates, Marlins and White Sox in wOBA at .297 while its .672 OPS is also ahead of just those three teams and while they are actually hitting better on the road, the pitching has been the issue away from Seattle. Bryce Miller has put together a solid five-game run where he has posted a 1.88 ERA and while three of those were on the road, two came against two horrible offenses in the Tigers and Angels and while the third was against the Dodgers, he lasted only four innings while laboring through 92 pitches. He has had an excellent second half but his road numbers are the concern as he has a 4.82 ERA compared to a 2.03 ERA at home with the home runs being the issue with a 15-5 split. Erick Fedde has not been as consistent with St. Louis as he was with the White Sox before getting traded but it comes down to the home/road splits with him as well. He has allowed four runs or more in three of his seven starts with the Cardinals but all of those were on the road where his ERA is 5.64 but he has been much better at home with a 3.68 ERA. Overall, he has an above average BB% while his .227 BAA is No. 21 of 63 qualified starters. Play (928) St. Louis Cardinals

Off a KC Winner Thursday, over the last 2+ NFL Regular Seasons, Fargo is 125-95-3 (57 percent) and brought home +$20,790! NFL Week One FIVE Premium Plays Friday-Sunday! CFB 15-8 run going back to last year and Fargo has his Week 2 card posted with 12 Friday-Saturday Winners! MLB +$5,950 L54 Plays. 2-0 Double Play SWEEP on Friday.



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Matt Fargo Sports $2020.00
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Damian Sosh $1000.00
Alan Cashman $100.00
Mikhail Kivowitz $55.00

 

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Texas vs Michigan Free Pick 9-7-24

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Matt Fargo Sports Michigan +7

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NCAAF 09/07 12:00 PM Texas vs Michigan
PICK: Michigan 7
This is a play on the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES for our Saturday Free Play. There are always overreactions from week to week in football and that takes place between Week One and Week Two especially in college football. We are seeing it with this game based on results from the opening week as Texas opened as the favorite when the line was posted early this summer as part of the game of the year card and it stayed at -3.5 through last Saturday but the line has now more than doubled after just one game from each side. Texas steamrolled Colorado St. while Michigan beat Fresno St. by only 20 points but this is exactly what the Wolverines did last season, letting their three inferior nonconference opponents still around with their own offense scoring no more than 35 points, similar to the 30 they scored against Fresno St. and this all done for a reason as to not show too much and they basically gave Texas nothing. Michigan wants to play slow which it did all of last season, using its running game to burn clock and keep the defense fresh. The Longhorns were able to go through the motions as well but Michigan already has tape and has a good idea what to expect. Texas lost running back CJ Baxter before the season, so Jaydon Blue and Jerrick Gibson have to try and make up for that lost production but neither are close to Baxter and will be facing a great run defense. The Wolverines held Fresno St. to just nine rushing yards and while the Longhorns present a bigger challenge, they are going to make quarterback Quinn Ewers beat them and we are not really sure that he can. He had solid top line numbers last season and he has a very high floor but according to PFF, his grades did not even rank him in their PFF College 101 that included 12 quarterbacks, seven of which are back playing in 2024. With Baxter, he can implement a lot of play action, which is where he thrives, but he does not have that luxury. Texas proved it is a great team with a 52-0 win but the early overreaction is against them here. Play (320) Michigan Wolverines

A MASSIVE Weekend in football starts today! We get things started Saturday in College Football as Fargo has 11 Premium Winners highlighted by his Big 10 Game of the Year and SEC Game of the Month and it all gets started with Three 12:00 ET kickoffs! The NFL is off to a 2-0 start and over the last 2+ NFL Regular Seasons, Fargo is 126-95-3 (57 percent) and brought home +$21,790! FOUR Premium Sunday Winners and MNF Top Play.



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Anlyedge $1750.00
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Professors Sports Picks $900.00
Brian Bitler $850.00
James Patrick Sports $300.00
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2024 AFC South Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo

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Regular Season Win Totals and AFC South/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Houston Texans: 9.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ AFC South Winner +105 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,600
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5 Over -110 Under -110 ~ AFC South Winner +250 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000
Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ AFC South Winner +340 ~ Super Bowl Winner +7,500
Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Over +110 Under -135 ~ AFC South Winner +1,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000

Coaching Changes
Tennessee Titans: Mike Vrabel Out ~ Brian Callahan In

Team Previews

Houston Texans: 11-8 ~ 4-2 AFC South ~ 10-9-0 ATS ~ 7-11-1 O/U
Won AFC South, Lost in the AFC Divisional Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 5

Notable Additions: RB Joe Mixon, WR Stefon Diggs, DE Danielle Hunter, DT Folo Fatukasi, DT Denico Autry, DT Mario Edwards, DT Tim Settle, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Myles Bryant, CB C.J. Henderson, S Lonnie Johnson, P Tommy Townsend

Notable Losses: RB Devin Singletary, OT George Fant, OT Josh Jones, C Michael Deiter, DE Jonathan Greenard, DE Jerry Hughes, DT Maliek Collins, DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Hassan Ridgeway, LB Blake Cashman, LB Denzel Perryman, CB Steve Nelson, CB Tavierre Thomas, S Kareem Jackson, S Eric Murray, P Cameron Johnston

Notable Draft Selections: CB Kamari Lassiter, OT Blake Fisher, S Caden Bullock, TE Cade Stover

Coming into last season, Houston was the longshot to win the AFC South with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback and it was not a good start as the Texans started the season 0-2 then won six of their next eight games to gain some traction and took out Tennessee and Indianapolis in their final two games to win the division. Those initial two losses were the only consecutive defeats on the season and they carried the momentum into the playoffs with a blowout win over Cleveland before getting smacked at Baltimore but it was a still a successful season with a very bright future. Quarterback C.J. Stroud looked like a rookie in the season opener against Baltimore but the future NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year did not play like it after, throwing for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. His completion percentage of 63.9 percent needs to improve but he finished with a 100.8 passer rating and that was with losing his top receiver late in the season. Tank Dell is now healthy and they acquired Stefon Diggs to group with Nico Collins to form a great trio. Houston also added running back Joe Mixon to run behind a solid offensive line. The Texans also had the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson, part of a defense that finished a respectable No. 14 in Total EPA. There was a lot of turnover on this side so it could be a wait and see how the unit reacts. The schedule is backloaded in strength so the Texans have the ability to get off to another great start.

With higher expectations and an AFC South title under their belts, the Texans are hit with a win total of 9.5, three more than they had last year coming into the season which they cashed in Week 13. The schedule has some good but mostly bad to it as Houston has most of their winnable games early so they can get some momentum going. Their crossover games are against the AFC East and NFC North so that is not easy as is the fact the other three non-division games are Dallas, Kansas City and Baltimore. Indianapolis and Jacksonville both could be better so getting to 10 wins might not happen. There is no value to win the division at +105 and the fact that the Texans Super Bowl odds are the seventh lowest shows no value there either.


Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8 ~ 4-2 AFC South ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 8-9-0 O/U
Finished Tied For Second in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 9

Notable Additions: QB Mac Jones, WR Gabe Davis, WR Devin Duvernay, C Mitch Morse, DT Arik Armstead, OLB Trevis Gipson, CB Ronald Darby, S Darnell Savage, K Joey Slye

Notable Losses: QB C.J. Beathard, WR Calvin Ridley, G Tyler Shatley, DE K’Lavon Chaisson, DE Dawuane Smoot, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins

Notable Draft Selections: WR Brian Thomas, DT Maason Smith, CB Jarrian Jones, OT Javon Foster, DT Jordan Jefferson, CB Deantre Prince

Jacksonville was one of the bigger disappointments in the AFC last season, not necessarily because it missed the playoffs but because it was the overwhelming division favorite at -155. The Jaguars started just fine at 8-3 but imploded late as they lost five of their last six games to finish 9-8 for a second straight season but last year was just not good enough for a second straight AFC South title. The division looks to be wide open again and Jacksonville could be the team to break away with quarterback Trevor Lawrence healthy and hoping to stay that way unlike last season. He basically threw for the same amount of yards with the same completion percentage as 2022 but threw four fewer touchdowns and six more interceptions. He will have a partially new receiver room with problematic Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones both gone while getting Gabe Davis from Buffalo and drafting Brian Thomas from LSU to compliment Christian Kirk. The offensive line was upgraded which is important to keep Lawrence on the field. The defense has remained steady each of the last few years in yards allowed but that is not a good thing as it has been below average, finishing No. 16 in Defensive EPA last season. They have made improvements, notably signing defensive tackle Arik Armstead from San Francisco to form a very strong defensive line which will help the secondary. The Jaguars allowed 29.2 ppg over those final five losses while posting a shutout in that lone victory but that was against Carolina.

As mentioned, this could be the team that has breakaway potential in the AFC South but the schedule is once again going against them as it is every year with their London trips. The Jaguars have only seven true home games and their home field is not great to begin with which has had a lot to do with them not being able to get over the win total in recent years. Jacksonville has gone 13-3 to the under the last 16 seasons with a lot of that putting bad teams on the field but also with their abnormal schedules. Still, if they can get out of the first five weeks with a winning record before going to London, the over is in play. They are definitely worth a look at +250 in the South but past that, there is not enough to love for them to make a long run.


Indianapolis Colts: 9-8 ~ 3-3 AFC South ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 10-6-1 O/U
Finished Tied For Second in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 22

Notable Additions: QB Joe Flacco, DT Raekwon Davis

Notable Losses: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zack Moss, WR Isaiah McKenzie, DE Jacob Martin

Notable Draft Selections: DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, OT/G Matt Goncalves, G/C Tanor Bortolini, KR Anthony Gould, S/LB Jaylon Carlies

Indianapolis went into last season with low expectations as it was coming off a 4-12-1 season, had a rookie head coach and rookie starting at quarterback and its All Pro running back was in a contract dispute. Despite all of this, the Colts opened the season 3-2 as quarterback Anthony Richardson showed flashes but he was banged up early and often and was shut down after playing just four games. They went on to lose their next three games not because of the quarterback but because the defense allowed 37, 39 and 38 points. Richardson is now healthy, running back Jonathan Taylor will actually start the season, their receiving corps is better and a top level offensive line all adds up to an offense that could explode. They left a lot on the table last season as they averaged only 23 ppg despite accumulating their most yardage in four years. Obviously, there is the concern with Richardson but he cannot be tabbed an oft-injured quarterback just yet and his ceiling looks exceptionally high. That aforementioned three-game stretch from the defense potentially kept them out of the playoffs but those were an aberration as they allowed 30 points only one time in their final nine games. Getting defensive end Laiatu Latu at No. 15 in the draft was a steal and should improve upon their No. 21 EPA ranking.

Oddsmakers liked what they saw last season from Richardson and as the team as whole fighting through adversity as all of their odds are lower than last season with their win total two games higher. What also is on their side is a very easy schedule as they play the AFC East and NFC North like the other three teams but their three crossover games are all winnable against the Steelers, Broncos and Giants. There are enough other wins out there as well despite nine road games as they get Buffalo, Detroit and Miam at home so one upset there and a 4-2 division record should get them to double digits. At +350, the Colts have the best value to win the division and that is where our bet is, we just have to hope Richardson stays on the field.


Tennessee Titans: 6-11 ~ 1-5 AFC South ~ 7-9-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 23

Notable Additions: QB Mason Rudolph, RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, G Saahdiq Charles, C Lloyd Cushenberry, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Kenneth Murray, CB L’Jarius Sneed, CB Chidobe Awuzie

Notable Losses: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR Nick Westbrook, OT Andre Dillard, OT Chris Hubbard, C Aaron Brewer, DE Denicco Autry, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB Kristian Fulton, S Terrell Edmunds

Notable Draft Selections: OT J.C. Latham, NT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Cedric Gray, CB Jarvis Brownlee

After six straight winning seasons, the Titans have endured back-to-back losing seasons but they were not complete disasters at 7-10 and 6-11 yet they were enough to cost head coach Mike Vrabel his job which was the most surprising firing in the offseason. Tennessee hired Brian Callahan who served as the Bengals offensive coordinator the last five seasons and he brings in a good pedigree as he is the son of Bill Callahan who also came over to coach the offensive line. The offense has regressed considerably the last few seasons but age has played into that with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry having their best years behind them and both are now gone. The offense has been upgraded along the offensive line which is a big step in the progress of quarterback Will Levis who showed he can succeed in this league but he needs more consistency. The Titans also signed receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, so along with DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has a very solid group to throw to. They replaced Henry with Tony Pollard who can flourish as the No. 1 back, something he never got to consistently do while in Dallas. The defense actually graded out worse last season as Tennessee finished No. 25 in Defensive EPA as it was horrible against the pass at No. 28. They signed two top cornerbacks to shore up the secondary and while they lost defensive end Denicco Autry, the line will be fine with Harold Landry and Jeffrey Simmons but the linebackers have to step up.

This team looks to be unbettable in the futures market with the unknown Levis in control. He threw four touchdowns in his first start against the Falcons but threw only four touchdowns in his other eight games after that combined. That is not the game log you want to see from a quarterback to bet over their win total, and the 6.5 does seem to be inflated even at plus money. The schedule is affecting the total with a doable backend where a 5-5 record is plausible but the frontend is a beast where a 0-7 start is not out of the question as they will be underdogs in all seven games so the under looks safe but not at -375. If a win bet is absolutely needed, DraftKings is offering Exact 6 wins at +370 so that could be fun for a sprinkle instead of l

 

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Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Free Pick 9-9-24

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Matt Fargo Sports Kansas City +157

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MLB 09/09 7:05 PM Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees
PICK: Kansas City Royals 157
s is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our Monday Free Play. Kansas City suffered through a seven-game losing streak but salvaged the series finale against Cleveland and then swept the Twins over the weekend to take a 2.5-game lead over Minnesota for the No. 2 spot in the American League Wild Card. The pitching put up its best four-game stretch during this run as Kansas City allowed a total of four runs against two very solid offenses and now it is tested again and we are catching an overinflated number which is always the case based on the opponent. The Yankees were unable to complete the sweep in Chicago as they lost to the Cubs 2-1 on Sunday with the pitching putting on a clinic as they allowed only two runs in the three-game set after allowing 41 runs in their previous five games and we can foresee a reversion to that. While the pitching was lights out over the weekend, the offense managed only six runs and while it is still one of the best in baseball, they have a tougher than anticipated matchup tonight despite what the number may be saying. Brady Singer had a great 2022 season as he posted a 3.23 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 27 games but he regressed considerably last season as he had a 5.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 29 starts but he has gotten his command back and will be an integral part in the Royals postseason. He is coming off a pair of solid outings against the Guardians and Astros to give him a 3.35 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 28 starts but he has not been able to get many wins including recently as Kansas City has gone 1-5 in his last six games with run support the issue with just 1.6 rpg backing him. Carlos Rodon got off to a good start this season but has been on the decline as he has posted a 5.60 ERA since June 15 which is No. 76 among 77 quality starters. He does have one of the best K% over this stretch but also has one of the worst BB% which negate each other and that has led to his 1.41 WHIP. He too has been hurt by run support as the offense has given him just 2.3 rpg over his last four outings. Play (957) Kansas City Royals

NFL is 3-3 to the season and now +$19,490 L2+ regular seasons and +$76,010 long-term run. Monday Night Football makes it a Profitable Week One! CFB 22-13 run after a 7-4 Saturday! MLB +$5,020 Run with Monday SWEEP!



YESTERDAY'S LEADERS
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2024 AFC West Overview and Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo

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Regular Season Win Totals and AFC West/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ AFC West Winner -260 ~ Super Bowl Winner +500
Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC West Winner +350 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,500
Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +1,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000
Denver Broncos: 5.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +2,200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +30,000

Coaching Changes
Los Angeles Chargers: Brandon Staley/Giff Smith Out ~ Jim Harbaugh In
Las Vegas Raiders: Josh McDaniels Out ~ Antonio Pierce In

Team Previews

Kansas City Chiefs: 15-6 ~ 4-2 AFC West ~ 13-7-1 ATS ~ 7-13-1 O/U
Won AFC West, Won Super Bowl LVIII
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 16

Notable Additions: QB Carson Wentz, WR Marquise Brown, TE Irv Smith

Notable Losses: WR Mecole Hardman, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, OT Donovan Smith, G Nick Allegretti, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Mike Edwards, P Tommy Townsend

Notable Draft Selections: WR Xavier Worthy, OT Kingsley Suamataia, TE Jared Wiley, S Jaden Hicks, C Hunter Nourzad

Kansas City is coming off its second consecutive Super Bowl victory and third over its last five years and the Chiefs are out to become the first ever Super Bowl three-peat Champion. They have made the playoffs nine consecutive seasons, which includes four Super Bowl appearances, while accumulating double-digit wins in all nine of those campaigns. Additionally, they have been to six consecutive AFC Championship games with the two losses coming by one possession so when the term dynasty is being thrown around, it fits here. Last year was probably the most impressive as the Chiefs had to deal with something they have not had to during this Super Bowl stretch as they were 8-1 at home in the postseason in those first four years with not having to play a road game but won two road games last season at Buffalo and Baltimore. The offense had a down season, easily their worst during this run but the defense picked up the slack as that side had its best results over the last five seasons. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still showed why he is the best in the league as he had no consistency with his receivers with the exception of Travis Kelce and he will have to figure it out again with a couple more losses while getting Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy. It might be hard to duplicate the defense from last season as the secondary took a big hit with the loss of L'Jarius Sneed but a healthy Chris Jones still gives them one of the best defensive lines in the league.

With Kansas City seeking its unprecedented third straight Super Bowl, the odds are not in their favor simply based on probability because winning in this league is hard but the actual odds are not in their favor either as the Chiefs are +500 after coming into 2022 and 2023 at +1,000 and +600 respectively so there is no value with the number actually coming down. They are significant favorites to win the division with a publicly backed Chargers team likely being the only one that will challenge them. Barring any significant injuries, the Chiefs should win their ninth straight AFC West title. As for win totals, after going over eight straight seasons, Kansas City has stayed under in two of the last three, each missing the over by one win. Pass.


Los Angeles Chargers: 5-12 ~ 1-5 AFC West ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 27

Notable Additions: RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, TE Will Dissly, TE Hayden Hurst, C Bradley Bozeman, DT Poona Ford, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Troy Dye, CB Kristian Fulton

Notable Losses: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, TE Gerald Everett, C Will Clapp, DT Austin Johnson, LB Eric Kendricks, LB Kenneth Murray, CB Michael Davis

Notable Draft Selections: OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey, LB Junior Colson, DT Justin Eboigbe, CB Tarheeb Still, CB Cam Hart

The Chargers are one of the most intriguing teams heading into 2024. They have had the talent to make runs at Kansas City but have underachieved by making the playoffs just once in the last five years and that was a disaster, blowing a big lead against Jacksonville. Many blamed the coaching so now we will have a chance to see first-hand as Los Angeles hired Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his National Championship at Michigan, to lead one of the top young quarterbacks who really has not been given a chance. Justin Herbert was banged up last season and ended up missing four games while finishing with a career-low 20 touchdowns. Often proclaimed as one of the best offenses in the league, the Chargers fell off the last two seasons, averaging 33 ypg and 60 ypg less than 2021 and now they are replacing their top three playmakers in Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. They went through Baltimore to solve the running game with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards while hoping Quentin Johnson and Joshua Palmer can step up outside along with draft pick Ladd McConkey being a sneaky steal. Also, drafting Joe Alt was a curious move with other needs but it made sense as protecting Herbert and keeping him healthy is goal number one. Los Angeles relies on ends Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack to lead their defense that clamped down over the second half of the season outside of that 63-point disaster against the Raiders, allowing 17.1 ppg in seven games around that.

The AFC West is playing the AFC North, which is not easy, but also the NFC South which could add a win or two to teams like the Chargers whose numbers seems inflated with the No. 27 schedule playing into that. The three crossover games are Arizona, Tennessee and New England so a 6-1 record is feasible and finding three wins in the AFC West and North should be more than doable. The Chargers have gone 5-0 to the under the last five years and while this is going to be very public, over 8.5 is the play if you do not mind the juice but a flat 9 can be found. Los Angeles has work to do to gel this offense and they only likely have to worry about Kansas City which is why the +350 to win the division is so low. Again public, but worth a sprinkle.


Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9 ~ 4-2 AFC West ~ 10-5-2 ATS ~ 5-11-1 O/U
Finished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 10

Notable Additions: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Alexander Mattison, TE Harrison Bryant, DT Christian Wilkins

Notable Losses: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Josh Jacobs, FB Jakob Johnson, WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Austin Hooper, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, OT Brandon Parker, G Greg Van Roten, DT John Jenkins, DT Jerry Tillery, CB Amik Robertson

Notable Draft Selections: TE Brock Bowers, C Jackson Powers-Johnson, OT Delmar Glaze, CB Decamerion Richardson, LB Tommy Eichenberg

One of the greatest franchises in the 70s and 80s has not been able to get out of its own way over the last two decades. Since losing to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl XXXVII back in 2002-03, the Raiders have made the playoffs only twice, losing both games in the Wild Card Round and they are now on their 13th different head coach since then with Jack Del Rio and Jon Gruden being the only two to last three years. Antonio Pierce won the players over when stepping into the interim role last year after the firing of Josh McDaniels and he was given the full time job after a solid 5-4 performance. Las Vegas will be breaking in a new quarterback as Gardner Minshew won the starting job over Aiden O’Connell and this is an offense that could struggle. Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in the league but there continued to be trade rumors as he wants out. The other two main options are going to be Jakobi Meyers and first round pick tight end Brock Bowers so there is not a whole lot to be excited about while the running game lost Josh Jacobs and has no suitable replacement. If nothing else, Minshew is fun to watch and will give everything he has but he makes too many mistakes to make them a consistent winner. The defense carried the team last season and nearly gave them a shot to make the postseason. The Raiders finished No. 7 in Defensive EPA and in the nine games under Pierce, they allowed only 16 ppg and added defensive end Christian Wilkins will have to step it up again.

This is going to be another tough team to figure out until we can see how this offense is going to be. We know the defense is going to be really good but there were seven losses last season where the offense scored 17 or fewer points and even great defenses cannot overcome that. Las Vegas is catching the same number as last season which it surpassed and has done so in four of the last five seasons. They got the Rams, Dolphins and Jaguars in their crossover games, the first two on the road, and it is as straight forward of a schedule as there can be with seven road losses and six home wins so there are four swing games that will come into play, home against the Chiefs and the Chargers and at Denver and Tampa Bay. Another pass.

Denver Broncos: 8-9 ~ 3-3 AFC West ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 8-9-0 O/U
Finished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 20

Notable Additions: WR Josh Reynolds, OT Matt Peart, G Calvin Throckmorton, C Sean Mustipher, DT John Franklin-Myers, DT Malcolm Roach, LB Cody Barton, S Brandon Jones

Notable Losses: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Cameron Fleming, C Lloyd Cushenberry, LB Josey Jewell, S Justin Simmons, S Kareem Jackson

Notable Draft Selections: QB Bo Nix, DE Jonah Elliss, WR Troy Franklin, CB Kris Abrams-Driane, RB Audric Estime

While it was not a resounding success, Denver rallied from a 1-5 start to win seven of their last 11 games for an 8-9 finish that does seem to being taken too serious from oddsmakers. We are finally seeing a season where Denver is not being overvalued as they usually are because of their name as the Broncos Super Bowl odds are pegging them as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2015, Denver has not been back to the playoffs and has now had a losing record in six consecutive seasons under four different head coaches so there has not been any sort of culture put into place. Head coach Sean Payton did get his team to rally last season, that is other than quarterback Russell Wilson who eventually got benched and got out of town, moving onto Pittsburgh. Now it will be a rookie running the offense as Bo Nix won the starting job over Jarrett Stidham thanks to a solid preseason but he does not have a true No. 1 to throw to as Cortland Sutton and Marvin Mims looking like his two best options. The offensive line is weak and the running game will rely on Javonte Williams who does not look like he is back to 100 percent. The defense regressed considerably last season as the Broncos finished No. 27 in EPA and No. 29 in yards allowed. While it would be nice to have a stout defense help carry a rookie quarterback until he can find his footing, that is not the case here as they could be worse as starting star safeties Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson are gone.

As mentioned, the odds are not in their favor with low expectations unless you are actually betting on Denver because there are some value numbers but it could be a waste. Also mentioned is how the Broncos have been overvalued based on name and they have gone 0-7-1 to the under the last eight seasons which coincides with that last playoff appearance. They were 8.5 last year and are down to 5.5 this season which is a big drop and the problem is that their winnable games are all early and that is not good with a brand new quarterback and a bad defense. A 4-4 start is possible but unlikely and a 0-9 finish is possible with home games against the Falcons and Colts being the best of the bunch. This team has under written all over them once again.

 

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2024 NFC East Overview and Betting Preview

By Matt Fargo

https://topsportscappers.com/



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Regular Season Win Totals and NFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)

Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner -125 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,400

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Over -145 Under +120 ~ NFC East Winner +170 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,900

Washington Commanders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner +900 ~ Super Bowl Winner +12,000

New York Giants: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135 ~ NFC East Winner +2,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000



Coaching Changes

Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera Out ~ Dan Quinn In



Team Previews



Philadelphia Eagles: 11-7 ~ 4-2 NFC East ~ 7-9-2 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U

Finished 2nd in the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 21



Notable Additions: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVante Parker, WR Parris Campbell, G Matt Hennessy, NT P.J. Mustipher, OLB Bryce Huff, LB Devin White, LB Oren Burks, LB Zack Baun, CB/S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson



Notable Losses: QB Marcus Mariota, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, G Sua Opeta, C Jason Kelce, DE Haason Reddick, DT Fletcher Cox, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Zach Cunningham, LB Shaq Leonard, S Kevin Byard, S Justin Evans



Notable Draft Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB/S Cooper DeJean, DE Jalyx Hunt, RB Will Shipley, WR Ainias Smith, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.



Philadelphia had two five-game winning streaks to start last season wrapped around a loss to the Jets on the road to open 10-1 and it was looking well on its way to another Super Bowl run. Then all of a sudden, the Eagles forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. It was a stunning implosion and one that many thought would cost head coach Nick Sirianni his job yet he escaped but he is on the hot seat despite nearly winning the Super Bowl just two years ago. A lot of it is rumored that there is a rift between him and quarterback Jalen Hurts but it is something they have to work around to make this work. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.



The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have nearly doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and dropped all the way to +450 prior to their implosion. The win total is one fewer than last season, which they missed the over by a half-game, and the drop in win total correlates with the increase in odds and based on the schedule and all of the upgrades, there is some value in betting Philadelphia across the board but that is not likely where our money is going as there are teams below them with higher odds that could have an easier path. Crossover games against Green Bay and Baltimore away from home could determine their over/under result.





Dallas Cowboys: 12-6 ~ 5-1 NFC East ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 10-7-1 O/U

Won the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 12



Notable Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott, LB Eric Kendricks



Notable Losses: RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup, OT Tyron Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Dante Fowler, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Jayron Kearse



Notable Draft Selections: OT Tyler Guyton, DE Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist Liufau



Dallas has won the NFC East five of the last 10 seasons but was unable to get past the Divisional Round three times while losing in the Wild Card Round twice and throw in another Divisional Round loss in 2022 as a Wild Card team, it has been a decade of disappointment. Dallas won its last Super Bowl in 1995 and in 13 playoff appearances since then, the Cowboys have not even made it to the NFC Championship so why they get so much attention and public backing is mind-boggling. Here they are again with high expectations in a conference that is wide open with arguably six teams that can win the NFC with Dallas in that mix. Since 2015, they have been no higher than +1,500 to win the NFC and no other team can stake that claim over the last nine years yet there have been six different teams representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Enough about the Dallas futility as it again has talent to make a run that many fans have not been able to witness. Quarterback Dak Prescott is usually the scapegoat and will likely be again but other than CeeDee Lamb, the offense is not very good. There is no reliable No. 2 receiver, the running game is going to be bad and the offensive line lost two significant starters. Running back Tony Pollard is off to Tennessee so they resigned Ezekiel Elliott to go along with Rico Dowdle. The defense was No. 23 in EPA and they did not do much to upgrade as the pass rush will still be solid but the back end needs help, especially with DaRon Bland out a while.



Money will be pouring in on the Cowboys as is the case every year and that will not be including a single cent from this end, at least to start. There will be that one season where Dallas eventually wins the Super Bowl and we will miss it but continuing to chase a so-called contender every season has cost a lot of people a lot of money. Detroit, San Francisco and Houston are the three crossover games besides playing the NFC South and AFC North so this schedule is not easy and there is value on the under at plus money. The bet could be for Dallas to make the playoffs which DraftKings has at -210 but it is a wait and see as the first seven games present a challenge and we could see the number drop should they have some early struggles.





Washington Commanders: 4-13 ~ 0-6 NFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U

Finished 4th in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 19



Notable Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Zach Ertz, G Nick Allegretti, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Michael Davis, S Jeremy Chinn, K Brandon McManus



Notable Losses: QB Jayden Daniels, DT Johnny Newton, CB Mike Sainristill, TE Ben Sinnott, OT Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan Magee



Notable Draft Selections: QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, OT Charles Leno, G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, DE Casey Toohill, DE James Smith-Williams, LB Cody Baron, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl, K Joey Slye



Washington has won the NFC East only three times since the turn of the century, two of those with nine or fewer wins including one with a losing record. They have not had a double-digit winning season since 2012 while having just three 10-win seasons since 1992 after having done so in eight of their previous nine seasons from 1983-1991. This is the epitome of below average and the Commanders are once again going through a rebuild but this one seems a little different. Last season, Washington opened last season 2-0 and while no one was expecting any sort of positive run, it went south quickly as the Commanders lost 13 of their last 15 games with the two wins coming against Atlanta and New England. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. He is being compared to Robert Griffin III but with a higher ceiling and to help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. The Commanders regressed considerably on defense and finished dead last in EPA while allowing 10 more ppg and 85 more ypg than it did in 2022. They did upgrade but far from enough.



Could Washington be the Houston of last season, bringing in the No. 2 draft pick to take them to the playoffs? This is unlikely in this division but the Commanders will be better after getting outgained in 13 of 17 games last season. Despite only four wins last season, the win total of 6.5 is the same as last year which came after an eight-win season in 2022 so the oddsmakers are expecting improvements. The schedule definitely helps as Washington has nine home games, it has four winnable road games and its three crossover games are against Arizona, Chicago and Tennessee. All in, there are 11 swing games including seven of the first nine so a 5-4 start a possible and there are two more wins the rest of the way so the over is the play.





New York Giants: 6-11 ~ 3-3 NFC East ~ 8-8-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U

Finished 3rd in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 6



Notable Additions: QB Drew Lock, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan, G Aaron Stinnie, DE Brian Burns, S Jalen Mills



Notable Losses: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Parris Campbell, TE Darren Waller, DT A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Isaiah Simmons, S Xavier McKinney



Notable Draft Selections: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips, TE Theo Johnson



No team has won the NFC East in consecutive years since 2004, the longest streak in NFL history but the Giants have not been part of the musical chairs since their last division title in 2011. New York made a surprising playoff run in 2022, if you can call a run one playoff victory, and it hoped to build off of that heading into last season but there was some early foreshadowing after a 40-0 season opening loss at home against Dallas. Their first four losses were by more than two touchdowns and while they got some late season success from backup quarterback Tommy DeVito, it was a disaster of a season for the Giants. Many are calling this the year it has to happen for quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll but this is just hard to foresee. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball. Jones has shown some positive things but he looks too uncomfortable a majority of the time and he is coming off that torn ACL while his preseason work has been hard to watch at times. The loss of Saquon Barkley is going to hurt and they did hardly anything to improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The defense has regressed each of the last five seasons and not much was invested in improving. They do have a formidable defensive line as they got Brian Burns from Carolina to line up with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence but there are holes elsewhere.



While we like the Washington over at 6.5, we love the Giants under at the same number even with a little added juice to it. New York was on pace to have one of the worst records in the NFL last season but closing 4-3 over the last seven games in a stretch that meant nothing inflated their overall record to 6-11 and that hurts going into this season. New York has to face the No. 6 schedule that is loaded early on and this season could be over quickly. The Giants get Indianapolis, Minnesota and Seattle in their three crossover games and none of those are easy despite the first two being at home. They have gone 2-9 to the under over the last 11 seasons, finishing with six or fewer wins in eight of those and we do not see that changing again this year.

 

[TopSportsCappers.com]

2024 NFC North Overview and Betting Preview

By Matt Fargo

https://topsportscappers.com/





Regular Season Win Totals and NFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)

Detroit Lions: 10.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ NFC North Winner +130 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,200

Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ NFC North Winner +230 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,800

Chicago Bears: 8.5 Over -160 Under +130 ~ NFC North Winner +280 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,500

Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ NFC North Winner +1,100 ~ Super Bowl Winner +8,000



Coaching Changes

None



Team Previews



Detroit Lions: 14-6 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 14-6-0 ATS ~ 13-7-0 O/U

Won the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Championship

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 11



Notable Additions: G Kevin Zeitler, DE Marcus Davenport, DT D.J. Reader, CB Carlton Davis, CB Amik Robertson



Notable Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Josh Reynolds, G Jonah Jackson, DE Romeo Okwara, DE Julian Okwara, CB Cameron Sutton, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson



Notable Draft Selections: CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw, OT Giovanni Manu, S Sione Vaki



It did not take head coach Dan Campbell very long to move this franchise in the right direction as he inherited a mess and went 3-13 in his first season but bounced right back with the Lions first winning record in four seasons by going 9-8 and then last season, they were on the verge of their first ever trip to the Super Bowl but a second half meltdown in the NFC Championship left them saying what could have been. There is no sulking as Detroit is still one of the favorites to win the NFC with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league and if the defense can take it a step forward, the Lions could be right there again. The division has improved as a whole as evidenced by the win totals and the NFC North odds but it will be Detroit's to lose. They extended the contracts of quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the two leaders of the offense that finished No. 6 in Offensive EPA and also No. 6 in both Rushing and Passing EPA. The former is due to the breakout season from rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and along with David Montgomery, the Lions have one of the best back duos in the league that runs behind one of the better offensive lines. The defense allowed 45 fewer ypg than 2022 but allowed nearly the same amount of points as they had some good games but offset those with some poor efforts, allowing 28 or more points seven times. The Lions could not stop the pass but upgraded with two solid draft picks along with signing cornerback Carlton Davis.



Detroit was a public betting darling last year as following that 9-8 season in 2022, the Lions went from +12,500 that year to win the Super Bowl to +2,200 last year and now the Lions come in at +1,200 and will be heavily bet again following their first division title in 30 yards and that NFC Championship run. They do have the roster to make it happen but the value is shot. The Lions won the division by three games last season and it likely will be a lot closer this year but the odds are relatively the same, going from +135 to +130 so this could be the way to go. The schedule is not easy playing the NFC West and AFC South while the three crossover games are all against playoff teams from last season. Their 10.5 win total is the highest in franchise history.





Green Bay Packers: 10-9 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 11-8-0 ATS ~ 11-8-0 O/U

Finished 2nd in the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Divisional Round

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 4



Notable Additions: RB Josh Jacobs, OT Andre Dillard, S Xavier McKinney, S Greg Joseph



Notable Losses: RB Aaron Jones, TE Joiah Deguara, OT David Bakhtiari, OT Yosh Nijman, G Jon Runyan, LB D’Vondre Campbell, S Darnell Savage, S Jonathan Owens



Notable Draft Selections: OT Jordan Morgan, LB Edgerrin Cooper, CB/S Javon Bullard, RB Marshawn Lloyd, LB Ty’Ron Hopper, S Evan Williams



The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay ended with a non-playoff season in 2022 and while it took new starting quarterback Jordan Love to find his footing last season, he ran with it once he did. The Packers opened 2-5 but closed on a 7-3 run to make the playoffs and then ran away from Dallas early in the Wild Card Round before losing a tough three-point game at San Francisco in the Divisional Round. Love started slow as any first year starting quarterback usually does as he posted QB ratings of 88.0 and 65.4 in September and October but put up ratings of 103.1, 107.4 and 128.6 in November, December and January. He looked extremely comfortable down the stretch so maybe it is more about ability and talent and not so much teams not knowing what to expect. Can he keep it going with good but not great wide receivers? The three top receivers, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are all talented but none are a true No. 1 but what they lack in fantasy value, they make up for in consistency and Love having the ability to mix and match to keep opposing defenses honest. The Packers lost running back Aaron Jones to the Vikings but got Josh Jacobs as a replacement and he arguably has more upside. The defense finished No. 24 in EPA and while they allowed fewer than 20 points seven times, they gave up 30 or more five times and the offense could not bail them out in three of those. This is a quality young team but they do not have that it factor that other teams possess.



The late run at the end of the regular season along with the blowout of Dallas and the near miss against San Francisco has people believing in the Packers. With the offense that was so young with first and second year starters, opponents simply did not have much on how to defend but with a year of film, teams should be more prepared. But to their own merit, they are a year older with more experience. Six of their 10 wins were against non-playoff teams and the schedule takes a big jump up in strength so it will not be easy. Their three crossover games are against Philadelphia, Miami and New Orleans with none being true road games which helps. The win total seems too high because everyone will only remember the late season surge.





Chicago Bears: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 8-7-2 ATS ~ 9-8-0 O/U

Finished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 29



Notable Additions: RB D'Andre Swift, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, OT Jake Curhan, G Matt Pryor, C Ryan Bates, C Coleman Shelton, DE Jacob Martin, S Kevin Byard, S Jonathan Owens



Notable Losses: QB Justin Fields, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Marcedes Lewis, G Cody Whitehair, C Lucas Patrick, DE Yannick Ngakoue, DT Justin Jones, S Eddie Jackson



Notable Draft Selections: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, OT Kiran Amegabjige, P Tory Taylor, DE Austin Booker



The Bears had their best season with quarterback Justin Fields in his three years but possessing the No. 1 overall draft pick, they decided to move in a different direction. It has been a lousy run for Chicago as it has been to the playoffs only twice since 2011 while finishing with a winning record only twice over that span as well. The Bears drafted Caleb Williams as their hopeful franchise quarterback and the public seems to be all in with many other upgrades throughout the roster as well. Williams gives them a young talent who navigates the pocket and makes throws like a veteran and unlike most quarterbacks in Bears history, he will have a great group of receivers to throw to. Considering Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson at the age of 24 already has more receiving yards than any player in Bears history, the optimism is real with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze possibly becoming one of the best trios in the league. Chicago has depth at running back after signing D'Andre Swift and this could turn into a potent offense as long as the offensive line can stay healthy which was a problem last season. The Bears had a solid improvement on defense from 2022 and finished No. 13 in EPA thanks to a great second half of the season. Over their final eight games, they allowed 31 points against the Lions in one of those but in the other seven games, they gave up just 15.1 ppg. They will not be that good in 2024 but there is hope that a healthy bunch can do just enough to stay around.



While the public loves the Lions once again, they really love the Bears which forced oddsmakers to overadjust some of these odds. While the Bears may be better, the division as a whole is stronger and the Chicago numbers have come down in Super Bowl, NFC and NFC North odds while the win total has gone up. At +280 to win the division, this is the second lowest number since 2010 with the lowest being 2019 when they were +175 and finished third. This is a hard pass. The Bears are 1-9-1 to the under the last 11 seasons and now they are hit with their fourth highest win total over this stretch. They get the Rams, Commanders and Patriots in the crossover games but finding 9 wins seems aggressive. -114 to miss the playoffs could be the bet.





Minnesota Vikings: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 7-7-3 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/U

Finished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 18



Notable Additions: QB Sam Darnold, RB Aaron Jones, WR Trent Sherfield, C Dan Feeney, DT Jerry Tillery, DE/OLB Jonathan Greenard, DE/OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Blake Cashman, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, CB Shaq Griffin



Notable Losses: QB Kirk Cousins, QB Josh Dobbs, RB Alexander Mattison, WR K.J. Osborn, OT David Quessenberry, G Dalton Risner, DE Danielle Hunter, DE D.J. Wonnum, DE Marcus Davenport, DT Dean Lowry, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Troy Dye, K Greg Joseph



Notable Draft Selections: QB J.J. McCarthy, DE Dallas Turner, CB Khyree Jackson



The Vikings had high hopes last season coming off a 13-win season but that was a façade as they were the luckiest team in the NFL as they went 11-1 in one possession games during the regular season. Flash forward to last season, they opened 0-3, all one possession losses no less, and while they rallied to get to 4-4, quarterback Kirk Cousins was lost for the season with an Achillies injury and they could not produce in the second half on the season, finishing on a 1-6 run, the lone win being a 3-0 snoozefest over Las Vegas. Now that Cousins is gone, Minnesota had to decide between Sam Darnold, who is playing for his fourth team in five years, or rookie J.J. McCarthy but it was unfortunately decided when McCarthy was lost for the season with a knee injury. Darnold does have one of the best wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson, a solid second option in Jordan Addison and a great tight end in T.J. Hockenson when he gets back to full health. The Vikings upgraded their running back by signing Aaron Jones away from Green Bay and they have a very solid offensive line. But is Darnold really the answer? The defense was horrible from 2020-2022 but they showed improvements last season, going from second worst in total defense to No. 16. Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone so the turnstile the defense has gone through from last season needs to find some players to step up in a highly offensive division. Drafting Dallas Turner was a start.



The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off. This is because of Darnold who entered the league as a can't miss but he has been just that with his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here and he cannot carry a team on his shoulders into the postseason so every future bet is off the board especially when they are -355 to miss the playoffs. The Giants, Jets and Falcons are the crossovers so that is one win and trying to locate six others is a stretch. The under at plus money is a look.