2024 Big 10 Conference Preview
topsportscappers.com
By Matt Fargo
Regular Season Win Totals and Big 10 Championship Odds (via DraftKings)
Ohio State: 10.5 Over -150 Under +125/+155 Big 10 Winner
Oregon: 10.5 Over +100 Under -120/+200 Big 10 Winner
Penn State: 10.5 Over +140 Under -165/+500 Big 10 Winner
Michigan: 9 Over +115 Under -135/+700 Big 10 Winner
Iowa: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+3,500 Big 10 Winner
Nebraska: 7.5 Over -125 Under +105/+5,500 Big 10 Winner
USC: 7.5 Over +105 Under -125/+2,000 Big 10 Winner
Washington: 6.5 Over -105 Under -115/+8,000 Big 10 Winner
Maryland: 6.5 Over +100 Under -130/+10,000 Big 10 Winner
Rutgers: 6 Over -140 Under +120/+12,000 Big 10 Winner
Wisconsin: 7 Over +120 Under -140/+6,500 Big 10 Winner
Illinois: 5.5 Over +105 Under -125/+20,000 Big 10 Winner
Indiana: 5.5 Over -135 Under +115/+20,000 Big 10 Winner
Northwestern: 4.5 Over -120 Under +100/+20,000 Big 10 Winner
UCLA: 5 Over +115 Under -135/+15,000 Big 10 Winner
Michigan State: 5 Over -105 Under -115/+20,000 Big 10 Winner
Minnesota: 5.5 Over +100 Under -120/+18,000 Big 10 Winner
Purdue: 4.5 Over +135 Under -160/+30,000 Big 10 Winner
Coaching Changes
Indiana: Tom Allen Out ~ Curt Cignetti In
Michigan: Jim Harbaugh Out ~ Sherrone Moore In
Michigan State: Mel Tucker Out ~ Jonathan Smith In
UCLA: Chip Kelly Out ~ DeShaun Foster In
Washington: Kalen DeBoer Out ~ Jedd Fisch In
Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 ~ 8-1 Big 10 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 3-9-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9
The last three seasons for Ohio St. have been nearly identical and the Buckeyes are looking for that to change. Three straight 11-2 finishes is fantastic but there has been one roadblock and that is hated rival Michigan. Ohio St. has gone into the season finale ranked No. 2 in the country and all three times it came away with a loss. That should reverse this year with the Buckeyes loaded roaster and the Wolverines going through some retooling. Head coach Ryan Day is an outstanding 56-8 in six seasons but the Michigan bleeding has to stop. They lost quarterback Kyle McCord to the transfer portal but got Will Howard through the portal from Kansas St. and now they have Chip Kelly calling the plays. Ohio St. lost a lot at receiver but there is plenty of depth and new blood while possessing arguably the best running back tandem in the country. The defense is even more loaded with 10 upperclassmen starting and they should be even better than their No. 4 overall ranking last season and No. 2 in points scored. The Buckeyes schedule helps out as it is in the bottom third of the Big 10 in terms of strength, partly due a nonconference slate that rivals Michigan from last year as they face Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. The two big challenges will be games at Oregon and at Penn St.
Oregon Ducks 12-2 ~ 8-1 Pac 12 ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 9
Oregon was ever so close to a trip to the CFP last season but Washington was too tough to take down twice. In two years under head coach Dan Lanning, the Ducks are 22-5, Washington accounting for three of the losses, Georgia being the fourth and a four-point loss at rival Oregon St. in the Civil War. Now, they head to a bigger and tougher conference but the good news is that they just as good and the expanded CFP will only help them out. The offense was potent under quarterback Bo Nix, ranking No. 1 passing and No. 2 in both total offense and scoring. Nix is now in the NFL but Oregon reloaded and brought in former Oklahoma and UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel who is now in his sixth season. The Ducks also lost their top running back and receiver but are not without returning star power while four of five offensive linemen are back. The defense has a ton of experience thanks to the transfer portal mostly helping the secondary that lost three of four starters. They finished No. 22 overall and should improve based on the schedule. The Ducks have a couple challenges in the nonconference with a visit from Boise St. and a trip to Corvallis while the Big 10 schedule is not bad at all as they miss Penn St., Iowa and USC and while they do play Ohio St. the game is in Eugene.
Penn State Nittany Lions 10-3 ~ 7-2 Big 10 ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7
Penn St. has been good, just not good enough. Over the last eight seasons, five have resulted in double-digit wins but there has not been a trip to the CFP and only one time did they make it to the Big 10 Championship game. Penn St. has started 5-0, 5-0 and 6-0 the last three campaigns but failed to keep it going with three conference losses to teams ranked in the top five and then were not able to fully recover. This season could be different as they are the fourth most experienced team in the conference, face a doable schedule and of course, the CFP is expanded. The offense scored 30 or more points nine times but scored only 27 points combined against Ohio St. and Michigan and they finished No. 12 overall in scoring. Quarterback Drew Allar had a 25:2 TD:INT ratio but completed only 60 percent of his passes, loses two of his top three receivers as well as three offensive linemen so it could take time. Defensively is where they will dominate again after finishing No. 2 overall and No. 3 in points allowed and the Nittany Lions are strong on all three levels to lead the team early on. Penn St. will likely get off to another undefeated 5-0 start but then there is a trip to USC. The two real tough tests after that are against Ohio St. and Washington, but those are both at home.
Michigan Wolverines 15-0 ~ 9-0 Big 10 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 5
Michigan is coming off its first National Championship since 1997 in its third straight season making the CFP. The Wolverines were 84-21 under head coach Jim Harbaugh taking out the 2-4 COVID season and now that he is off to the NFL again, it will be up to former offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to keep the magic going. Moore did go 4-0 in the four games he coached when Harbaugh was suspended so he is not totally coming in raw. Michigan was gashed by the NFL Draft as it lost 16 starters and comes in as the second least experience team in the conference so while there certainly is talent, it could be a struggle early. The only starters back on offense are the tight end and one offensive lineman so there is work to be done for whichever quarterback wins the starting job. Nearly 3,000 yards of offense was lost from the running back and receiver positions. Defensively, Michigan will be much better off so even though the No. 1 ranked unit from last season will take a step down, it should be a huge descent. Only five starters are back but they are strong up front and in the middle but the secondary needs work. The schedule is a mix of brutal and easy as Michigan has Texas, USC, Oregon and Ohio St. but the Buckeyes are the only game on the road of the four.
Iowa Hawkeyes 10-4 ~ 7-2 Big 10 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8
Similar to Penn St., Iowa has been good, just not good enough. The Hawkeyes are coming off another double-digit win season, their third over the last four years excluding the 2020 COVID season and last season, made their second Big Ten Championship game only to get ambushed by Michigan both times by a combined 68-3. Heah coach Kirk Ferenz will be entering his 26th season and after a couple rough first years following Hayden Fry, he has had only two losing campaigns over the last 23. That is consistency but consistency is not good enough unless championships are involved and Iowa could be at its closest yet. The offense has regressed the last three seasons, bottoming out last season with 234.6 ypg and 15.4 ppg, No. 133 and No. 132 respectively. New offensive coordinator Tim Lester was brought in to turn this around and part of the problem last year was that quarterback Cade McNamara was hurt in August and was never the same while missing 9 games. They have to be better. The defense had to make up for it which it did, ranking No. 7 overall and No. 4 in scoring. Eight starters are back so it should be more of the same. Iowa St. comes to visit and then there is a trip to Ohio St. followed by a home game against Washington and it is all downhill after that.
Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 4-7-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8
Nebraska is a sexy pick to make a lot of noise in the conference and it is possible with what it has on the roster but it will come down to what the so-called quarterback whisperer can do. This once Blue Blood program endured its seventh consecutive losing season in 2023, the first one for head coach Matt Rhule and you can tell the culture is changing. Even last year could have been better with even average play as the offense was stuck in neutral most of the time yet the Huskers lost five games by one possession including their last four games where a win in one of those and they were bowl bound. Freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola looks to be the savior as he comes to Lincoln as a five-star recruit and looks to start right away which is smart given the soft frontend schedule. Four of five starters are back along the offensive line and transfer help at receiver will ease him in. The defense kept the Huskers in those close games as in those five losses, the offense scored no more than 17 points and scored 10 three times. Eight starters are back from the unit that finished No. 11 in total defense and they will be stout again. Nebraska could and should start the season 7-0 but then come big boys with four of the last five at Ohio St., at USC, at Iowa and hosting UCLA.
USC Trojans 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 9
The Trojans were ranked No. 6 in the Preseason AP Poll, made it to No. 5 and after a 6-0 start, they suffered a 28-point loss at home to Notre Dame and the bottom fell out. That started a 1-5 run to end the regular season and it ended up being the fourth time in five seasons, not counting 2020, that they finished outside the AP Top 25. The expectations are not as high as they move to a new conference and less expectations can be a very good thing. Behind quarterback Caleb Williams, the offense was one of the best around as USC was ranked No. 10 thanks to a passing attack that was No. 5. Backup Miller Moss played in the Holiday Bowl against Louisville and he was great and should be the starter but UNLV transfer Jayden Maiva will give him a push. Each of the top two rushers and receivers are gone as well but there is good returning experienced talent to take over behind a strong offensive line. The Trojans season was lost because of the defense that allowed an average of 42.4 ppg over their last eight games, winning three of those by just 10 points combined. There is talent and experience but it will take a lot for a huge improvement. USC avoids Ohio St. and Oregon but has LSU and Notre Dame and in the Big 10, it goes to Michigan, Washington and UCLA while hosting Penn St.
Washington Huskies 14-1 ~ 9-0 Pac 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 4
It was a great story in Spokane which was expected as the Huskies came in as a Top 10 team and rolled in their first four games. Then good fortunes came in as the next 10 wins were all by 10 points or less, seven by a touchdown before getting beat by 21 points against Michigan in the CFP Championship. To their credit, good teams win the majority of those close games but great teams win them all so Washington was certainly the latter. Now it looks to be a complete rebuild with head coach Kalen DeBoer gone to Alabama and with 13 players off to the NFL and along with the transfer portal, 16 starters have to be replaced. New head coach Jedd Fisch mastered a quick three-year turnaround at Arizona and he will look to at least keep the Huskies somewhat in contention. Washington is the least experienced team in the Big 10 so there will be a lot of growing up to do. The offense was great but will have a different look with Mississippi St. transfer quarterback Will Rogers coming in and having to replace the top eight receivers and leading rusher. Defensively, the Huskies barely got by and new defensive coordinator Stephen Belichick was brought in to turn it around. A 5-0 start is likely against inferior competition to get the kinks out but then we will see what the Huskies possess.
Maryland Terrapins 8-5 ~ 4-5 Big 10 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 8
Maryland has put together three straight winning seasons culminating with three bowl wins and after a rough first season in 2019, head coach Mike Locksley has job security at a non-traditional Big 10 program. The expansion of the conference further nationwide definitely helps a team like the Terrapins with greater exposure even though if it means tougher competition. That will not necessarily be the case this season but the Big 10 will never be a cakewalk so getting to eight wins again will be a challenge. What makes it even more of a challenge is that Maryland has to replace the All Time Big 10 passing leader Taulia Tagovailoa who led it to that success. There is no clear cut favorite heading into fall camp with four candidates but will likely come down to Billy Edwards, who was the Music City Bowl MVP, and NC State transfer MJ Morris. The receiving corps is loaded with six of the top eight pass catchers back as well as the top two running backs. Maryland has improved on defense yardage wise each of the last five years and the Terrapins bring back a strong front seven but do need some help in the secondary. They open the season with five games against non-bowl teams then host Northwestern. USC, Oregon, Iowa and Penn St. make up four of the final six games.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 7-6 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8
After a 6-2 start last season, it was the quickest Rutgers had became bowl eligible since 2012 when it started 7-0 and last season was the first one with a winning record since 2014. It did not end well with four straight losses to end the regular season but those were all against teams that finished with eight or more wins and they closed with a Pinstripe Bowl win over Miami to bring some confidence into this season. The Scarlet Knights bring back a very experienced team, the second most experienced team in the Big 10 in fact, so they could present some problems and it helps having the second easiest schedule in the conference. The passing game was non-existent last season as Rutgers finished No. 127 in passing offense and they completed only 48 percent of their passes. They brought in Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis and while he did not have a great 2023 season, he will be a big upgrade. The receiving corps is also upgraded and the leading rusher is back. The defense kept them in games, finishing No. 16 overall and eight starters are back with experience across all three levels. A game at Virginia Tech is the only nonconference test and in the Big 10, they miss Ohio St., Michigan and Penn St., which they are on a 0-27 run against, as well as Oregon.
Wisconsin Badgers 7-6 ~ 5-4 Big 10 ~ 4-6-2 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
It was not a great season for Wisconsin but not for anything else, it showed character in its first year under head coach Luke Fickell. The Badgers opened the season 5-2 but lost three straight games including a pair of losses against Indiana and Northwestern as big favorites yet they showed their fight and won in overtime against Nebraska to become bowl eligible. A win in the final week against Minnesota solidified its 22nd consecutive season with a winning record which is currently the most among all Power Four teams but beyond that, there has been nothing spectacular happening. This will be a tough season for major improvement based on the conference expansion and their schedule. The offense was average as it has been for the last four seasons and they should get a passing game going with Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke coming in and he will have the top two receivers back. The running game will be fine with four of five offensive linemen returning. The defense was above average which is always the case but the 343.7 ypg allowed was the most given up since 2007 and they will improve. The schedule is the fourth toughest in the conference as Wisconsin has Alabama in the nonconference while travelling to USC, Iowa and Nebraska and hosting Penn St. and Oregon.
Illinois Fighting Illini 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema came into a tough situation in 2021 despite 18 returning starters but the talent was not there and the Illini opened 2-5 and was unable to get that sixth win. Illinois went 8-5 in 2022, the first winning season since 2011, but took a step back last season with a 5-7 campaign that included a pair of excruciating two-point losses to end the season denying them a bowl game and it is back to the drawing board. It was not a completely lost season as the offense had its best season since 2019 and the Illini actually outgained their Big 10 opponents despite a 3-6 record but their defense let them down. Illinois was sensational in Bielema's first year but the unit dropped by 104 ypg and 16.6 ppg, despite having a First Team All American defensive end, and that is hard for an offense to make up for. The secondary was the big issue yet there is experience back there this season but now the entire defensive line has to be replaced. The offense did not have prolific numbers but actually had the third best passing attack in the conference and quarterback Luke Altmyer takes over full time and they could be potent. The Illini only have four Big 10 home games but Michigan is the only true test but of the five road games, two of those are at Oregon and Penn St.
Indiana Hoosiers 3-9 ~ 1-8 Big 10 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 11
The Tom Allen era ended after seven years that included only two winning seasons and it concluded with a 9-27 record the last three years. The Hoosiers went with an upcoming name, hiring Curt Cignetti from James Madison where he compiled a 52-10 record in five seasons including a 19-5 record at the FBS level. The 3-9 record last season, which included a win against Indiana St. of the FCS and a win over 2-10 Akron that took four overtimes, was not surprising as the Hoosiers brought back only eight starters but now have 21 of 22 starters back which does include many transfer starts with a lot of those from James Madison. The offense was abysmal but that should change with the addition of Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke who was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2022. Every running back is gone but Cignetti brought over leading rusher Kaelon Block with him and the receiving corps with JMU transfers. It is the same on the other side with defensive end Mikail Kamara, defensive tackle James Carpenter and linebackers Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker all coming over from James Madison. The mini Dukes have the easiest schedule in the Big 10 with games against UCLA, Michigan and Ohio St. being the only big tests while the three nonconference games should be wins.
Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 ~ 5-4 Big 10 ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
Head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in July because of hazing allegations and that was probably not a bad thing anyway considering Northwestern was coming off a 4-20 record the previous two seasons. David Braum was hired from North Dakota St. where he was defensive coordinator so it was supposed to be a lost season yet the team fought through adversity with just 11 starters back and won its final three games to become bowl eligible and took out Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Repeating that success will be difficult as the Wildcats were pretty fortunate in that they won six of their games by one possession. The offense dropped 31 ypg from 2022 yet averaged 8.2 more ppg and the reason is that they had only nine turnovers which included an unthinkable one fumble. The Wildcats lose their quarterback and leading receiver but four starters return on the offensive line as well as their leading back. Defensively, Northwestern went through a stretch of allowing 20 points or less in five of six games and while they have eight starters back, there should be regression. The schedule is not great but doable. However, Ryan Field is going through renovations so five home games will be at a temporary on campus location with two others at Wrigley Field and Soldier Field so this is a big disadvantage.
UCLA Bruins 8-5 ~ 4-5 Pac 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 5
After a rough start at UCLA, Chip Kelly put together a 25-13 record over the last three seasons but he decided to leave and take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio St. which is arguably a step up and DeShaun Foster takes over where he was the running backs coach. UCLA is considered an elite high profile program but that is questionable considering is has not had a double-digit winning season since 2014 and has had consecutive double-digit winning seasons only three times in the history of the program. The defense was the catalyst as the Bruins were No. 10 in the country overall and No. 12 in points allowed but they are going to see a drastic drop in those rankings. They have only five starters back and two losses up front are probably two of the biggest in the country with edges Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy combining for 21 sacks and 37.5 tackles for loss. The offense took a huge step back from 2022, averaging 12.7 ppg and 77 ypg less and that should improve with the hiring of Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator so while there was a reversal of both units last season, it will be reversed in 2023. UCLA left the west coast only once last season when it went to Utah, but this season it leaves the time zone five times and plays the second hardest schedule in the country.
Michigan State Spartans 4-8 ~ 2-7 Big 10 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8
The once proud Spartans program has taken a step back the last two seasons with a 9-15 record with the coaching situation turning into a mess. Mel Tucker came in during the COVID season but led Michigan St. to an 11-2 record in 2021 but then lost its last two games in 2022 to finish 5-7 and then Tucker was fired last season after a 2-0 start because of sexual allegations and the season ended up being a dumpster fire. In comes Jonathan Smith who turned around a fledging Oregon St. program with three straight winning seasons in his five years there. He has the resources and the history to turn this place around but it will not be overnight. His first job will be to try and turn around an offense that went from 31.8 ppg in 2021 to 24.4 ppg in 2022 to 15.9 ppg last season. The good news is that quarterback Aidan Chiles followed Smith to East Lansing and while he lacks experience, he is a playmaker with huge potential and already knows the incoming system. The Spartans have been a mess on defense for the last five seasons and while there will probably not be a huge improvement, a ton of starting transfer experience will make it interesting. Five straight weeks midseason against Ohio St., Oregon, Bye, Iowa and Michigan does them no favors which could cook them.
Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U
Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8
P.J. Fleck has kept Minnesota a winning program and while last season finished 6-7, it closed with a bowl win so it was still positive. While never challenging for the Big 10 title, Minnesota has been good enough to make it to a bowl game 19 times over the last 25 seasons and while the betting win total says it will not be a good year, this team could exceed those expectations. Taking out the 2020 COVID year, this is the best five-season run for the Gophers since 2002-2006 and with the sixth most experienced team in the conference and a fairly light schedule, the run should continue. The offense dipped off considerably as it dropped by more than a touchdown per game and close to 90 yards per game but the Gophers might have brought in a weapon at quarterback with Max Brosmer who is a transfer from New Hampshire where he was a finalist for the FCS Heisman. Having the leading receiver and leading running back and four of five offensive linemen return should get the offense back on track. The defense regressed as well as it allowed nearly 13 more ppg than the previous season but eight true starters are back so the experience is there. The Gophers avoid Ohio St. and Oregon but face the next top four teams although three of those are at home.
