Guide The QB-WR Correlation: Maximizing ROI with Same Game Parlays

[Betting Forum]

Most Same Game Parlays (SGPs) are donation slips. I say this all the time. You take the Over on points, the Under on the Quarterback's yards, and a random Anytime Touchdown scorer because he has a cool name. You are betting against yourself.

This guide is about the one time it actually makes sense to parlay outcomes: Correlation.

Specifically, the link between a Quarterback and his top Wide Receiver. It seems obvious, yet I see people messing this up every Sunday by trying to get too cute with the math.

The Math of "Stacked" Events​

If Patrick Mahomes throws for 300 yards, it is mathematically impossible for him to do that without someone catching the ball.

If you bet Mahomes Over 280.5 Yards (-110) and Rashee Rice Over 70.5 Yards (-110) separately, you are paying full juice on two events.

But these events are tied together. If Mahomes hits his Over, the probability of Rice hitting his Over skyrockets. They are not independent variables.

The sportsbooks know this. That is why the payout on an SGP is lower than a standard parlay of two random events. They "tax" the correlation.

However.

They often screw up the pricing on the ceiling outcomes.

The "Ladder" Strategy​

The real edge isn't betting the standard lines (O/U 260 yards). It's betting the alternate "escalator" lines.

If a QB goes nuclear - throws for 350+ yards - his WR1 usually accounts for 30-40% of that production.

I see guys betting the "safe" floor. "I'll just take 200 yards and 50 yards." No. That is how you lose to the juice. You want to bet on the game script where everything goes right.

If you like the Dolphins to blow out a team, don't just take the spread. Stack the QB Alt Passing Yards (300+) with the WR1 Alt Receiving Yards (100+).

Why? Because if the QB hits the high alternate line, the WR1 must come along for the ride. The correlation gets stronger the higher the numbers go. You are essentially making one bet (that the offense explodes) but getting paid on two or three legs.

The "Cannibalization" Trap​

Here is where people lose money. They stack too many receivers.

"I'll take Purdy Over 250, Deebo Over 60, and Aiyuk Over 60."

This is dangerous. There is only one ball. If Deebo takes a screen pass 70 yards to the house, that is 70 yards that Aiyuk cannot get on that drive. They are negatively correlated in the short term.

The QB correlates positively with all his receivers, but the receivers often cannibalize each other.

Stick to the QB + WR1 stack. Maybe QB + WR2 if the total is massive (55+). But never QB + WR1 + WR2 + TE. You are asking for a statistical anomaly where everyone eats. Usually, someone starves.

When to Use This​

High Totals (Over 47.5): You need points. You need yards. Don't do this in a Steelers vs. Browns mud fight.

Narrow Spreads: You want the game to stay competitive. If your QB goes up by 21 points in the third quarter, they stop throwing. You need the other team to score so your guys keep padding stats.

Concentrated Offenses: Look for teams where the target share is narrow. If a QB throws to eight different guys, the correlation is weak. If he stares down one guy (like Stafford usually does with Kupp/Puka), the correlation is gold.

The "Anti-Correlation" Hedge​

One last thing. Sometimes the best correlation is the one that makes no sense.

QB Over Passing Yards + WR1 Under Receiving Yards.

It pays massive odds because the book thinks it's impossible. But if the WR1 gets injured in the first quarter, or gets locked down by a star corner, the QB still has to throw to someone else.

I don't recommend this for your main card. It's too variance-heavy. But I know a few guys who sprinkle this on "injury prone" WRs and it hits more often than the +2000 odds suggest.

Anyway. Stop betting unrelated props. If you are going to give the book your money, at least make sure your bets tell a consistent story.

FAQ​

Q1: Does this work for Running Backs?
Sometimes, specifically "Pass Catching" RBs. But generally, a RB rushing for 100 yards correlates with the Under on QB passing yards, because they are chewing clock. That is negative correlation.

Q2: Which books allow this?
FanDuel was the first, but DraftKings and BetMGM all have it now. The offshore books (Bovada) have SGP builders too, but the UI is clunkier. Shop for the best payout - the variance between books on SGP pricing is huge.

Q3: Should I add the Moneyline?
Be careful. A QB can throw for 400 yards and still lose (ask Kirk Cousins). I prefer to stack the stats and leave the result out of it. It feels safer.