The Bookmaker Margin - How Much Are You Actually Paying Per Bet?

[DublinDegen]

prof's version of what the calorie count does and doesn't do...

yes...

the information that would have helped most if the relationship with the activity had been different...

helpful information delivered into a situation where the relationship with the activity meant the information was difficult to act on...

both things can be true at once...

the margin should be visible...

and visible margins alone don't fix the thing they'd help with if everything else were different...

 

[SharpEddie47]

The practical summary this thread has produced.

Calculate the margin on every product you use. The formula is simple. Implied probabilities from the odds, summed, minus one hundred percent, gives you the overround. Divide by the total implied probabilities for the approximate margin.

Compare that margin to the edge you genuinely believe you have. If the margin exceeds the edge: the bet is negative expected value regardless of analytical quality.

Understand that the margin compounds in multi-leg products. The five-leg parlay at 6% per leg is a 26% margin product. The eight-leg accumulator at 7% per leg is a 43% margin product.

The exchange with 2 to 5% commission on winnings is a fundamentally different cost structure from any fixed-odds bookmaker product.

Pinnacle's margins are the benchmark for what a fair-priced fixed-odds market looks like. Everything above Pinnacle's margin is what you're paying for the privilege of using a more accessible interface.

None of this tells you whether to bet. It tells you what you're paying when you do.

Most people have been paying without knowing the price.