Premier League vs. NFL: Which Market is Harder to Beat?

[Klaus]

I have seen several posts recently where members claim that the NFL is the "sharpest market in the world."

This is mathematically incorrect.

The Premier League (and top-tier European football in general) is significantly more difficult to model and beat long-term.

1. Outcomes: The NFL is a 2-way market (Moneyline/Spread). Football is a 3-way market (Win/Draw/Loss). The addition of the Draw exponentially increases the complexity of the probability distribution.
2. Scoring Frequency: High-scoring sports (NFL/NBA) regress to the mean more reliably. In a low-scoring sport like football, a single random event (red card, deflection, penalty) has a 100% impact on the result. Variance is higher. Signal is lower.
3. Liquidity: The global betting volume on the Premier League dwarfs the NFL. More liquidity means a more efficient market.

If you can beat the Premier League closing line, you can beat anything. The NFL is checkers. Football is chess.

 

[SharpEddie47]

@Klaus , with all due respect, you're confusing "randomness" with "market efficiency."

Just because a soccer game is lower scoring and more random doesn't mean the market is harder to beat. It just means the variance is higher.

The NFL market is the most efficient market on earth because the information is perfect. Every injury, every snap count, every weather report is public knowledge instantly. There is zero "insider" edge.

In soccer, you have managers lying about lineups, obscure injury news from training grounds that nobody sees, and inconsistent officiating across different leagues.

The NFL line is razor sharp because the entire world is staring at it. If the Chiefs are -3, they are exactly -3. There is no "hidden value."

Trust the process. The NFL market is the ultimate test of a handicapper's skill because you can't get lucky with "insider info." You have to out-math the world's best computers on a level playing field.

 

[oli_sussex]

Eddie is wrong.

NFL lines are loose. Public money distorts them.

The Premier League market is purely mathematical. Asian syndicates correct errors in seconds.

I have modeled both. My error rate on NFL is 3.2%. My error rate on PL is 4.8%.

The PL is harder. Fact.

 

[ThePuntingProf]

I must side with my European colleagues on this matter because the fundamental difficulty of the Premier League lies in the Poisson distribution of goals where the difference between an Expected Goals (xG) output of 1.2 and 0.8 is statistically massive yet can easily result in a 0-1 scoreline due to a single moment of variance whereas in the NFL the sheer volume of possessions (usually 10-12 per team per game) allows for a much smoother distribution of results relative to performance which essentially means the "better" team wins far more often in American football than in proper football. Furthermore the global nature of the football market means you are competing against syndicates in Singapore and London and Hong Kong who have teams of PhDs analyzing player tracking data that simply isn't available to the public whereas the NFL bettor is largely competing against Joe Sixpack and his "gut feeling" which creates far more soft spots in the line particularly on game day when the public money floods in. To beat the Premier League closing line consistently is the holy grail of sports betting and frankly I have met very few individuals who can do it over a sample size of five thousand bets without relying on niche prop markets or arbitrage.

 

[FadeThePublic]

You guys are arguing about math, but you're missing the psychology.

The NFL is easier to beat because of the public.

In the Premier League, who is betting Crystal Palace vs. Wolves at 7 AM on a Saturday? Sharps and die-hards.

In the NFL, who is betting Cowboys vs. Eagles on Sunday Night Football? Everyone.

My grandma has a bet on that game. The guy at the gas station has a bet on that game.

The books have to shade the lines to account for the massive influx of square money. They inflate the favorites and the Overs because they know the public won't bet the Under/Dog.

That creates artificial value that doesn't exist in soccer.

I don't need a PhD to beat the NFL. I just need to fade the guy wearing the jersey at the sports bar.