Premier League vs. NFL: Which Market is Harder to Beat?

[Klaus]

I have seen several posts recently where members claim that the NFL is the "sharpest market in the world."

This is mathematically incorrect.

The Premier League (and top-tier European football in general) is significantly more difficult to model and beat long-term.

1. Outcomes: The NFL is a 2-way market (Moneyline/Spread). Football is a 3-way market (Win/Draw/Loss). The addition of the Draw exponentially increases the complexity of the probability distribution.
2. Scoring Frequency: High-scoring sports (NFL/NBA) regress to the mean more reliably. In a low-scoring sport like football, a single random event (red card, deflection, penalty) has a 100% impact on the result. Variance is higher. Signal is lower.
3. Liquidity: The global betting volume on the Premier League dwarfs the NFL. More liquidity means a more efficient market.

If you can beat the Premier League closing line, you can beat anything. The NFL is checkers. Football is chess.

 

[SharpEddie47]

@Klaus , with all due respect, you're confusing "randomness" with "market efficiency."

Just because a soccer game is lower scoring and more random doesn't mean the market is harder to beat. It just means the variance is higher.

The NFL market is the most efficient market on earth because the information is perfect. Every injury, every snap count, every weather report is public knowledge instantly. There is zero "insider" edge.

In soccer, you have managers lying about lineups, obscure injury news from training grounds that nobody sees, and inconsistent officiating across different leagues.

The NFL line is razor sharp because the entire world is staring at it. If the Chiefs are -3, they are exactly -3. There is no "hidden value."

Trust the process. The NFL market is the ultimate test of a handicapper's skill because you can't get lucky with "insider info." You have to out-math the world's best computers on a level playing field.

 

[oli_sussex]

Eddie is wrong.

NFL lines are loose. Public money distorts them.

The Premier League market is purely mathematical. Asian syndicates correct errors in seconds.

I have modeled both. My error rate on NFL is 3.2%. My error rate on PL is 4.8%.

The PL is harder. Fact.