Player Props vs Game Totals: Which offers more value

[ParlayPrincess_88]

I've been betting way more on player props lately and honestly I think they're so much better than game totals. Like with a game total you're trying to predict how both teams are going to score and there's so many variables. But with player props you can just focus on one guy and whether he's going to hit his numbers.

Plus player props are way more fun to follow during the game. If I bet Mahomes over 1.5 passing TDs I'm locked in every time the Chiefs get in the red zone. With a game total I'm just sitting there doing math in my head the whole time trying to figure out if we're on pace or not.

I've also noticed the props seem easier to predict? Like I can usually tell when a running back is going to have a big game based on the matchup but predicting the exact total score of a game feels impossible. Maybe I'm just getting lucky but I feel like I'm hitting props at a way higher rate than totals.

What does everyone else think? Am I crazy or are props actually the better bet?

 

[SharpEddie47]

Props versus totals is an interesting question but you're thinking about it completely wrong. The question isn't which one is more fun or easier to follow during the game. The question is which one offers you a better opportunity to find positive expected value based on your analysis and the inefficiencies in how the market prices these bets.

In my experience totals generally offer better value for serious bettors and here's why. The total market has been around for decades and there's a massive amount of historical data you can use to build models and identify edges. You can analyze pace of play, offensive and defensive efficiency, situational factors like weather and rest, and you can backtest your theories over thousands of games to see if your edge is real or imaginary.

Player props on the other hand are a relatively newer market and the books are still figuring out how to price them efficiently. That sounds like it would be good for bettors but actually it's the opposite. When books aren't sure how to price something they protect themselves by building in more juice and wider margins. You're often paying minus 115 or minus 120 on both sides of a prop which means you need to hit at a much higher rate to be profitable compared to a total that's priced at minus 110.

The other issue with props is correlation. Princess you mentioned betting Mahomes passing touchdowns. That bet is correlated with the game total, with the Chiefs team total, with whether the Chiefs cover the spread, with how the game script plays out. If the Chiefs fall behind early Mahomes is going to throw more. If they get ahead early they might run the ball to kill clock. You can't analyze a prop in isolation, you need to understand how it relates to all these other factors and most casual bettors don't do that work.

There's also the practical issue that if you start winning consistently on props the books will limit you much faster than if you're betting totals. Props have lower limits to begin with and the books are very quick to identify winning prop bettors and shut them down. I've been limited on props at multiple books while still being able to bet reasonable amounts on totals and spreads.

My tracked data over the past five years shows I have a 4.2% ROI on totals and a 2.8% ROI on props. Part of that is because I've put more work into analyzing totals but part of it is also that the totals market just offers better opportunities for finding edge. The props market is softer in some ways but the extra juice and lower limits make it less profitable overall.

If you're betting recreationally and you find props more entertaining then by all means bet props. But if you're trying to be profitable long term I think totals offer better opportunities for most bettors.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

I actually think both can be valuable depending on what type of analysis you're doing and where your strengths are. For me personally I lean toward totals because my edge comes from understanding pace and game flow and situational factors that affect scoring. But I know bettors who are very successful with props because they do deep dive film study on individual matchups.

The thing about player props is they're very matchup dependent in ways that totals aren't. If you're betting a receiver to go over his receiving yards you need to understand not just how good the receiver is but who's covering him, what defensive scheme they're running, how the game script is likely to play out, whether his quarterback is going to have time to throw. That's a lot of variables and if you get any of them wrong your bet is probably losing.

With totals you're taking a more macro view. You're looking at team level stats and tendencies rather than individual matchups. That feels more predictable to me because individual variance evens out more at the team level. One receiver might have a bad game but if the offense as a whole is good they'll still score points. One defensive back might have a great game but if the defense overall is bad they'll still give up points.

That said I do bet some props when I see something specific in the matchup that jumps out. Like if I know a team's number one corner is hurt and they're going to have a backup covering a top receiver, that's a clear edge on the receiving yards prop. But I'm only betting that if I've done the homework to understand the specific matchup. I'm not just betting props because I think a player is good.

The other consideration is game script and how it affects different types of bets. If you bet the over on a game total and it's a blowout you might still win because both teams are scoring. But if you bet a running back rushing yards prop and his team falls behind big early, he might barely touch the ball in the second half because they're throwing to catch up. Props are more vulnerable to game script going against you in ways that can't be predicted ahead of time.

Princess I wouldn't say you're crazy for liking props but I would caution you to make sure you're actually tracking your results accurately. It's easy to remember the props that hit and forget the ones that missed. If you're truly hitting props at a higher rate than totals that's great but you need hard data to prove it not just a feeling.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Props are definitely softer markets than totals in terms of the public influence. The casual bettor sees Patrick Mahomes and just smashes the over on everything because he's Patrick Mahomes. They're not looking at the defensive matchup or the game script or any actual analysis. That creates opportunities for sharp bettors to fade the public on props just like we do on game spreads.

The problem is that the books know this too so they shade the lines on popular player props to account for the public bias. If 80% of the money is coming in on Mahomes over his passing yards the book isn't going to leave that number where it should be, they're going to bump it up to protect themselves. So even though the public is wrong you might not be getting good value on the under because the line has already moved to account for the lopsided action.

I've had some success betting props on less popular players where the public isn't paying attention. Like a backup running back who's getting the start because of an injury. The casual bettor doesn't even know that guy exists so the line is probably closer to fair value. But you need to really do your homework on the depth chart and injury situation to find those spots.

Totals on the other hand have much more balanced action on both sides usually. The public isn't overwhelmingly on the over or under in most games so the lines are probably sharper. That makes them harder to beat but it also means when you do find an edge you're more likely to be getting true value rather than a line that's already been shaded against the popular side.

The juice issue Eddie mentioned is real too. I'm often paying minus 120 or worse on props while totals are usually minus 110. That difference adds up quick over a full season. If I'm hitting 55% on both props and totals which is pretty good, I'm making way more money on the totals because of the lower juice.

My approach is I'll bet totals as my main play and then I'll add props occasionally when I see something specific that I really like. But props are maybe 15% of my total volume because the opportunities are less frequent and the value is harder to find consistently.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay I'm realizing I probably haven't been thinking about this deeply enough lol. I definitely haven't been tracking my prop bets versus my totals bets separately so maybe I'm wrong about hitting props at a higher rate. It just feels like I am but you guys are right that feelings aren't data.

The juice thing makes sense too. I never really paid attention to whether I was betting minus 110 or minus 120 but now that you mention it I think most of my props are worse odds than my game totals. That's probably eating into my profits without me realizing it.

I do still think props are more fun to watch during the game though even if they're not necessarily better value. Like Tony said if the game becomes a blowout at least with the total you might still hit. But if I have a rushing prop and the team abandons the run I'm just dead in the water and there's nothing I can do about it.

Maybe I should focus more on totals and just do props occasionally when I really like a specific matchup like you guys are saying. I tend to get carried away and bet props on like every game when I probably should be more selective.

One question though, if props are softer markets like Fade said, doesn't that mean there's more opportunity to find value even with the higher juice? Or does the juice completely wipe out any edge from the market being softer?

 

[SharpEddie47]

Princess that's actually a good question about whether the softer market compensates for the higher juice. The answer is it depends on how much softer and how much worse the juice is.

Let's do the actual math. Say the true fair value on a game total is 50% on each side and you're getting minus 110 odds. Your break even is 52.4%. If you can identify games where your analysis gives you a 55% win rate you're making good profit at that juice level.

Now say the true fair value on a prop is also 50% but you're paying minus 120 on both sides. Your break even is now 54.5%. So you need to win at 55% just to barely beat the juice compared to the total where 55% was solidly profitable. If the props market is soft enough that your edge puts you at 58% or 60% then yes it's worth paying the extra juice. But if your edge is only getting you to 56% you'd be better off betting totals at lower juice.

The real issue is that most bettors overestimate their edge on props. They think they have a 60% edge when really they're at 52% because they're not accounting for all the correlation and variance factors. So they're paying higher juice for an edge that doesn't actually exist or is much smaller than they think.

Fade's point about betting props on lesser known players is smart because those lines probably are softer. But you need to really know what you're doing with depth charts and injury analysis to find those spots consistently. Most casual bettors including yourself Princess no offense aren't doing that level of research.

My advice would be exactly what you just said. Focus primarily on totals where you can build a systematic process and track your edge over time. Then add props selectively when you see something specific that gives you high confidence. Don't bet props just because you want action on the game, bet them because you've identified a genuine edge on that specific prop.

And definitely start tracking your prop bets separately from your totals bets. After 100 of each you'll have actual data about which one you're better at and where you should focus your time and money.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

I think we're all basically converging on the same conclusion here. Both props and totals can be profitable but they require different skill sets and different types of analysis. For most bettors totals are probably the better starting point because they're more forgiving and the market is more mature with better data available.

The one type of prop I do think offers consistent value is the alternate totals and props where you're taking a bigger plus or minus number for better odds. Like instead of betting Mahomes over 1.5 touchdowns at minus 120 you bet over 2.5 touchdowns at plus 150. You're going to lose more often but when you hit you're getting paid well enough that the math can work out favorably.

The key with those alternate lines is you need to have a strong opinion about the game script. If you think a game is going to be a shootout then taking the higher alternate numbers makes sense. If you think it's going to be a defensive struggle the lower alternates make sense. But you're really committing to a specific outcome rather than just trying to predict whether a player beats his normal average.

Princess since you mentioned you like parlays maybe alternate props are worth looking at. You can parlay a few alternate props together and if you're right about the game script you can hit a nice payout. But again you need to really believe in your analysis not just be throwing darts hoping to get lucky.

The other thing I'd mention is that props tend to be more valuable in certain sports than others. NBA props are notoriously soft because there are so many games and the books can't possibly stay sharp on every player in every game. NFL props are sharper because there are fewer games and the books put more work into setting those lines. So if you're going to focus on props it's worth thinking about which sport gives you the best opportunity.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Tony makes a great point about sport selection for props. I've noticed the exact same thing where NBA props seem way softer than NFL props. Part of that is volume like he said but part of it is also that NBA has so much correlation between different stats that the books struggle to price everything correctly.

Like if you're betting LeBron points and rebounds and assists those are all correlated with each other and with how the Lakers perform as a team. The books can't perfectly price all those correlations so there are edges to be found if you're willing to do the work. But again you're probably paying minus 115 or minus 120 on most of those props so your edge needs to be real not imagined.

The alternate line strategy Tony mentioned is interesting and I've used that myself occasionally. The math on parlaying alternates can actually work out pretty well if you're disciplined about it. But most people aren't disciplined, they just parlay a bunch of random alternates together because the payout looks sexy and then they lose because they're betting on multiple correlated outcomes without understanding the correlation.

At the end of the day I think for most people reading this thread the answer is probably to focus on totals and learn that market really well before branching into props. Props are a specialized skill and unless you're willing to put in serious time studying individual matchups and game scripts you're probably better off sticking with team level analysis.

The one exception might be if you're already deeply knowledgeable about a specific sport or team. Like if you're a die hard Celtics fan who watches every game and knows the rotation and matchups inside out, maybe you do have an edge on Celtics player props that you wouldn't have on random games. But you need to be honest with yourself about whether that knowledge is real or whether you're just biased as a fan.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

This has been really helpful actually. I think I'm going to try tracking my totals versus props separately like Eddie suggested and see what the data actually shows after a month or two. I have a feeling I might be wrong about props being easier but we'll see what the numbers say.

The NBA props thing is interesting because I don't really bet basketball that much but maybe I should look into it if those lines are actually softer. Although knowing me I'd probably just lose money because I don't know the NBA as well as I know football lol.

I'm definitely going to be more selective with props going forward though. Instead of betting props on every game I'll save them for when I actually have a strong read on a matchup. That seems way smarter than what I've been doing.

Thanks for the reality check guys, even if it wasn't what I wanted to hear!

 

[SharpEddie47]

Good for you Princess for being willing to actually track the data and test your assumptions. That's the mark of someone who can improve as a bettor. Most people just keep doing the same thing over and over regardless of whether it's working.

One final thought on this topic. The props market is evolving quickly and what's true today might not be true in a year or two. Books are getting better at pricing props and they're adding more props every season which actually makes the market more efficient not less. So even if you find an edge on props now you need to constantly reassess whether that edge still exists as the market matures.

Totals on the other hand are a mature market that's been around forever. The edges are harder to find but they're more stable over time because the market dynamics don't change as rapidly. That's another reason why I think totals are better for most long term bettors.