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Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Jimmy Boyd’s free pick is on the Nats

I’m not expecting the Nationals to go away quietly. Washington won 3 of 4 at San Francisco during the regular season and are a couple of breaks away from this series being tied. The Giants will send out their ace in Madison Bumgarner, who was brilliant at Pittsburgh in the Wild Card play-in game. However, Bumgarner has actually performed better on the road than he has at home. He has a 2.22 ERA on the road compared to a 4.03 ERA at home.

Washington counters with Doug Fister, who actually out-dueled Bumgarner in San Francisco back on June 10 in a 2-1 Nationals victory. In that start, Fister threw 7 shutout innings. He closed out the regular season on fire, posting a 1.66 ERA and 0.738 WHIP over his final 3 starts to quietly finish the year 16-6 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.079 WHIP.

Bumgarner is 5-13 in his last 18 home games against NL teams with a team average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons and 5-10 in his last 15 home starts with a total of 6 to 6.5 runs. Fister is 7-1 in his last 8 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in his last outing and a perfect 8-0 in his last 8 starts after not walking a single batter in his last start.

There’s also a strong system in play, as road underdogs who are starting a well rested pitcher, working on 7 or more days of rest, with a tired bullpen that has thrown 13+ innings over their last 3 games are 51-31 over the last 5 seasons. That’s a 62% system in favor of the Nationals. Take Washington!

 

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Canucks vs. Flames NHL Free Play Oct 08 - Jesse Schule
Jesse Schule’s free play is on the Vancouver Canucks ML

The Canucks open the regular season in Calgary on Wednesday night, and they should be able to come away from this game with two points.

The Flames have been cellar dwellers in the Western Conference in recent seasons, last year finishing just ahead of last place Edmonton. They lost their leading scorer Mike Cammalleri in the off-season, and they haven’t made any significant moves to bring in new talent.

Vancouver still has the same core group of players that went to the Stanley Cup Finals four years ago, losing in Game 7 to the Bruins. The Sedin Twins have both won scoring titles, and they should still have a few good years in them. Ryan Kesler left for Anaheim in the off-season, but Radim Vibrata has come over from Phoenix, and has had a great pre-season playing on the top line with the Twins.

The Canucks have to believe they can get back to the post-season, and they should be eager to get off to a fast start. The Flames are a good bet to finish last in the West, and wins will be far and few between for this team.

Take VAN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

 

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BYU vs. Central Florida NCAAF Free Pick Oct 09 - Rob Vinciletti
This is a free pick on the UNDER

On Thursday night the free College Football totals play is on the Under in the BYU at Central Florida game. Rotation numbers 103/104 at 7:30 eastern.

This game has some solid trends that point to a lower scoring game that will most likely play under the 46 point total. BYU has played under in 29 of 41 games where the spread is +3 to -3 and the last 4 times In Thursday games. On the road 10 of the last 14 have stayed under.

Central Florida has played under the last 4 times as a home favorite of 3 or less and and 29 of 43 vs Non conference teams.

Look for a low scoring game take the under.

 

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Royals vs. Orioles MLB Free Pick Oct 10 - Will Rogers
This is a Free MLB pick on KC@BAL to go UNDER the total

Both the Kansas City Royals and the Baltimore Orioles won their previous series with ease as they swept the Angels and the Tigers respectively. The Royals recipe to success has been their small ball approach, which rarely leads to big innings. I think we'll see a low scoring contest in this ALCS opener.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Orioles will hand the ball to Chris Tillman (13-6, 3.34 ERA) who's last start was in the 12-3 win against the Tigers in Baltimore on Oct 2. The 26 year old allowed two runs (both homers) on four hits over five innings while fanning six. He gets to pitch at Camden Yards once again tonight, where he went 5-5 with a 2.54 ERA during the regular season. The Royals have not had any luck against Tillman this season, as he tossed a complete game shutout conceding only five hits in the only meeting. Kansas City will counter with James Shields who's last outing was in an 8-3 win against the Angels on Oct 5, where he gave up just two runs (both home runs) on six hits over six innings. He's had more success on the road than at home this year, going 10-2 with a 2.97 ERA away from home.

2. Trends - Six of the last seven meetings in Baltimore have gone under the total, and so have 11 of the last 15 overall as well.

3. X-factor - James Shields has owned a couple of the Orioles big bats. Nelson Cruz is only 4-for-21 lifetime versus the right-hander and Delmon Young is 3-for-14.

Selection: This is a play on KC@BAL to go UNDER the total (Free)

 

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Broncos vs. Jets NFL Free Pick Oct 12 - Jesse Schule
This is a Free NFL Pick on the New York Jets +10

The Broncos won big at home over Arizona last week, and they come into New York as a double-digit favorite this Sunday. The Jets have been dreadful since winning at home versus Oakland in Week 1. Things change fast in this league though, and there are a few reasons why I expect a competitive game here at Metlife Stadium.

Last week Manning threw for 472 yards and four TDs, and Denver won by a 21 point margin. The game was a lot closer than it sounds though, Arizona trailed by just four points heading into the fourth quarter. In fact if it wasn’t for an injury to Drew Stanton, the score could have been even closer.

Geno Smith has struggled at quarterback for New York, but he could get a boost with the return of star wideout Eric Decker this week. Decker will be looking to stick it to Denver just like Steve Smith did to the Panthers earlier in the year.

As good as Denver has looked in the passing game, they haven’t had as much success running the football, and losing Monte Ball with a groin injury isn’t going to help.

Peyton Manning knows not to expect a picnic in New York: “This is a stout defense; tough against the run, causes you a lot of pass protection issues, No. 1 in sacks, a lot of three-and-outs,” Manning said.

Take NYJ.

GL,

Jesse Schule

 

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Iceland vs. Holland Euro Qualification Oct 13 - Will Rogers
This is a Euro Qualification Free Pick on Holland

Iceland is sitting top of Group A as they will host the Netherlands in the Euro Qualifier Monday. This is the first time the Icelandic national team has won two consecutive games in any qualifier for a major tournament though, and I think they’ll get back down to earth against the Oranje today.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. The Dutch strike force – Robin Van Persie has not impressed in the Manchester United shirt this season, but he rarely puts in a poor display for his national team. He has support from Jeremain Lens and Arjen Robben on the flanks, with Wesley Sneijder and Ibrahim Affelay coming deeper from midfield. In contrast, most of the Icelandic players plays in their national league or in one of the not very prestigious Scandinavian ones.

2. A wake up call - The Netherlands suffered a 2-1 loss to Czech Republic their first game of the Euro Qualification. I think that will effect them positively in the long run though, now they know not to take any opponent lightly and sure enough they punished Kazakhstan 3-1 their second game.

3. X-factor – The Dutch winger Ibrahim Affelay had one goal and one assist against Kazakhstan three days ago. None of the Icelandic defenders can match his speed, and his movement off the ball will open up space for his team-mates.

Selection: This is a play on Holland (Free)

 

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Cardinals vs. Giants MLB Free Pick Oct 15 - Jesse Schule
This is a Free #MLB play on the San Francisco Giants.

Two of the three games in this series have been decided by just one run, so many might be inclined to zig zag with the Cardinals tonight. I think the Giants have showed that they perform better under pressure, and I give them a slight edge in starting pitchers with Vogelsong opposite Miller.

The veteran Vogelsong didn’t have a great season overall (8-13, 4.00 ERA), but he did fare better at home than he did on the road. He pitched very well in the NLDS versus the Nationals, allowing just one run on two hits over 5 2/3 innings in a 3-2 win in San Francisco. He allowed a pair of runs on six hits, fanning eight over seven innings in a 2-0 loss to the Cardinals when he faced them at home during the regular season. The Giants should be able to give him a bit better run support in tonight’s contest.

Shelby Miller wasn’t particularly sharp in his start in the NLDS, despite the fact that his team managed to get the win over the Dodgers in that game. He surrendered a pair of runs on five hits and three walks through 5 2/3 innings, not factoring in the decision. Miller’s numbers this season were better at home than on the road, and better in day games than under the lights. That doesn’t bode well for the 24 year old in San Francisco tonight.

The loss of Yadier Molina is a big blow for the Cardinals, and even if he tries to play, you know he’ll be nowhere near 100%. All the pressure is on St. Louis, and it’s going to be tough to come back against a savvy San Francisco team that has won seven of their last eight home games in the post-season.

Take SF.

GL,

Jesse Schule

 

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Seahawks vs. Rams NFL Free Pick Oct 19 - Will Rogers
This is a Free NFL Pick on the OVER

There’s been some shocking news out of Seattle the last seven days. Not only did the Seahawks lose to Dallas at home last Sunday, they announced that they traded (basically gave away) Percy Harvin to the Jets. The Hawks will be desperate to get back on track on the road at St. Louis this week, and with under bettors driving down the total, I see value in playing the over.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Russell Wilson – He did not have a good game against the Cowboys, but Wilson still sports impressive numbers this season. He’s completed 66% of his passes for just shy of 1000 yards, 8 TDs and only two picks. He beat the Rams twice last year, throwing for three touchdowns and no picks in those games.

2. Seattle Defense – The best defense in the NFL? Not this year so far. The Seahawks have actually been below average against the pass, allowing opponents to average over 250 yards per game in the air.

3. X-Factor – The Rams have trended toward high scoring games at home, with the over going 11-5 in their last 16.

Selection: This is a play on SEA@STL to go over the total (Free)

 

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Arkansas State vs. UL-Lafayette NCAAF Free Pick Oct 21 - Jimmy Boyd
This is a Free NCAAF Pick on the over

I believe the books have set the total too low in tonight's Sun Belt showdown between Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette. While these two teams combined for just 30 points in the Ragin' Cajuns 23-7 win at Arkansas State last year, the total for that game was 69 points. The previous year we saw these two teams combine for 77 points.

What I like here is that both teams are coming in clicking on offense. Lafayette is averaging 34.0 ppg in conference play and the Red Wolves are averaging 40.0 in Sun Belt action. Both teams have a dynamic quarterback who can beat you with both his arm and his leg. Arkansas State's Fredi Knighten has completed 61.6% of his attempts for 1,291 yards with 7 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions and rushed for 333 yards and 6 scores. Lafayette's Terrance Broadway has completed 60.7% of his attempts for 1,117 yards with 7 touchdowns and added another 332 yards and a score on the ground.

I also like the fact that both teams have a tendency to give away the football. Arkansas State has 14 turnovers in 6 games and Lafayette has 11 in 6 games. More times than not, turnovers result in a high-scoring game as it sets the opposing team up with a short field. That should definitely be the case with the talent these two have on offense.

OVER is 8-0 in the Ragin' Cajuns last 8 home games against conference opponents and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against teams who are completing 58% or better of their pass attempts. OVER is also 5-1 in Arkansas State's last 6 conference games. Take the OVER!

 

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Troy Trojans vs. Georgia Southern Eagles NCAAF Free Pick Oct 30 - Bryan Power
This is a NCAAF Free Pick on the Troy Trojans +26.5

Thus far, it has not been a good season for the Trojans of Troy. Other than a game where they were actually favored to win by eight points (and covered, 41-24 over New Mexico State), they have lost every time out. Fortunately, here they may finally be getting enough points to cover the spread and leave with the case. That's something they pulled off last Friday in a 27-13 loss at South Alabama, a game where they were getting 16 points.

The spread is significantly higher this week at Georgia Southern. The Eagles, despite playing their first full fledged year as a FBS member, are 6-2 and their only two losses have come by a combined five points at North Carolina State and Georgia Tech! They come off a 69-point effort LW at terrible Georgia State, which was their fifth consecutive win SU. They have covered all but one spread this year.

But save for a game vs FCS Savannah State, this will be the biggest spread yet for Willie Fritz's team. As a long-time Sun Belt member, Troy has to take some pride in not letting the conference "newbie" come in and just dominate. Georgia Southern in fact currently leads the SBC w/ a 5-0 record. They are also #1 in the nation in rushing yardage. However, my own power rankings indicate that this spread is about a full touchdown too high.

With an open date to follow, the Eagles may look past this Thursday night matchup. Only last week's win and the one against overmatched Savannah State came by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here.

1* Troy.

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Aztecs vs. Wolfpack NCAAF Free Pick Nov 1 - Jesse Schule
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Nevada #Wolfpack.

Nevada is coming off consecutive wins on the road over BYU and Hawaii, and the Wofpack host West Division leaders San Diego State Saturday night. While the Aztecs have a better record in the Mountain West, it's key to look at the quality of opposition for these two teams.

Nevada at 5-3 overall, has lost to the likes of Arizona, Boise State and Colorado State. The Aztecs on the other hand have a record of 4-3 overall, losing three of four on the road, with their only win coming against a New Mexico team that sits dead least in the Mountain West. If you look at the combined record of the three teams that San Diego State has defeated in conference play, they have gone 6-17 overall.

The quarterback situation for the Aztecs is nothing short of a complete disaster, with Quinn Kahler throwing for just three TDs and seven picks on the season. Six of those seven picks have come in his three starts on the road, and he has just one TD pass in those games.

Cody Fajardo has been pretty good for the Wolfpack, and last week at Hawaii he ran for 133 yards and a pair of TDs. I think Nevada should be a much bigger favorite here, but the Aztecs past success in this series has caused some to favor the visitors. This is the worst Aztecs team we have seen in years, so I don't put much stock in their past success.

Take Nevada.

GL,

Jesse Schule

 

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Coyotes vs. Ducks NHL Free Pick Nov 7 - Mike Lundin
Free Pick on the total to go under 5.5 goals

The Ducks are 4-1-1 at home for the season with all six games going under the total. Both Corey Perry (15 points) and Ryan Getzlaf (14 points) missed their game against the Islanders with flu-like symptoms and their status for this game is uncertain. They might get Fredrik Andersen back in net, but Jason LaBarbera proved himself in New York on Wednesday and should be able to keep the numbers down if Andersen is ruled out.

The Coyotes are coming off two consecutive wins, scoring nine while conceding seven, but five of their last seven games have gone under the total. They concede a lot of goals on the penalty kill, but might get a chance at improving their numbers tonight as the Ducks have gone 1-for-16 on the power play in their past five games. Mike Smith’s recent performances have been decent enough, with the 32 year old conceding only seven goals over his last three starts.

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Houston Rockets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
This is a Free Pick on the Houston Rockets -6.

Houston travels to Minnesota in the second game of their season series. I called Houston to beat up on the Wolves in Mexico City on Nov. 12th, and now I'm calling for another ATS win by Houston tonight.

Houston is up 5 of 6 and they're proving they can perform at an elite level with missing pieces to their roster. 6 players scored in double figures without Howard or Patrick Beverley in the lineup over the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday.

Minnesota is coming off a 77 point game where questions on the leadership of this team go unanswered. Mo Williams is the veteran leader now but the word is out on his back spasms and if he gives it a go tonight, he'll surely be tested by a strong backcourt in Jason Terry and James Harden. Both teams have a back-to-back situation here. It's in Houston hands to get out ahead early if they want to stay fresh for tomorrow's contest against the Suns. Meanwhile the Wolves will be led to the wolves in San Antonio for another beating tomorrow.

Rockets are 8-3 ATS on the road. Wolves are 0-4 ATS at home. Houston is 11-3 ATS in Minnesota. The public will be attacking this game and the line is sure to move up. Buy a point to bring it down to 6 if it goes up to 7. The Rockets may lose the second half if they're complacent but even if it comes down to free throws, a spread of 6 can easily be reached. The refs may try to favor the Wolves so be aware and keep your bets low.

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New York Islanders vs. Minnesota Wild NHL Free Pick Dec 9 - Bryan Power
This is a Free Pick on the Minnesota Wild.

The Wild are a team that I feel is drastically undervalued. Their overall possession numbers are near the top of the league and in the case of Fenwick, they hold the #1 spot. Despite currently having only 29 points, I absolutely see this as being a playoff team & you can look for them to take care of the Islanders tonight.

Really, the only difference between these two teams is that the Isles have won five times in a shootout while the Wild have done so just once. Minnesota has allowed the third fewest goals in the league so far and coming off a loss, I see them as particularly dangerous because it's been a real rarity to see them drop B2B contests this year. It hasn't happened in nearly a month and they had ample time to recover from a tough 5-4 setback at the hands of Anaheim Friday.

The Islanders are the biggest surprise in the league so far, but after winning eight of nine games, they did lose 6-4 to the Blues on Saturday. They did blow a 3-0 lead, thanks to a bad night from the PK unit.

Regardless of who is in net for Minnesota, I see New York struggling to score goals in this one as the Wild yield an average of just 25.3 shots per game. The home team finds enough offense to pick up the two points.

1* Minnesota.

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Calgary Flames vs. Los Angeles Kings
Mike Lundin's play is on the Los Angeles Kings -1.5.

This is a Free Pick on the Los Angeles Kings -1.5.

The once so sizzling Flames are enduring their worst skid of the season coming into this contest on the back off eight consecutive losses. They've managed only 13 goals over those losses, and that kind of production will take them nowhere near the Kings who has covered the spread in two straight at home scoring 10 goals. They've been particularly prolific on the power play, going 5-for-11 on the man advantage and I expect them to keep that up as the Flames have allowed a goal on the penalty kill in three of their last four.

Keep an eye on the Kings top-line with Anze Kopitar, Marian Gaborik and Jeff Carter. Kopitar has one goal and seven assists over the last two games and Gaborik has five goals over his last three.

The Flames eight game skid includes five losses on the road, and I think the home team are in an excellent spot to blow them away here as the two Pacific rivals face off for the first time this season.