NBA Free Pick 02/19/2026

cRUTHIK13

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Celtics -5.5

1. Warriors Missing Their Franchise Star 🚫


Golden State will be without Stephen Curry again tonight due to ongoing knee issues - he’s out for his sixth straight game. His absence dramatically impacts the Warriors’ spacing and shot creation, especially late in the clock, where Curry’s gravity normally opens everything up.


Without Curry’s prolific scoring and playmaking, the Warriors become more predictable offensively and easier for Boston’s defense to key on.




2. Warriors Are Hurting Across the Board 🩹


On top of Curry, Golden State also lists Seth Curry as out (sciatica) and Jimmy Butler III (season), while Kristaps Porziņģis is questionable - meaning key scoring and size may be limited tonight.


That leaves less reliable secondary scorers to carry a big share of the offense in a tough matchup.




3. Celtics Have Proven Depth and Recent Form 📈


Boston has already shown resilience without star Jayson Tatum (Achilles) and has won three of their last four games. Their supporting cast - led by Jaylen Brown, plus Derrick White and Payton Pritchard - has stepped up offensively and defensively in Tatum’s absence.


Even with Tatum out, Boston ranks near the top of the league in both offensive efficiency and opponent defensive adjustment, which matters when facing a Curry-less Warriors team.




4. Odds and Bookmaker Confidence Lean Boston 📊


Most sportsbooks have Boston installed as roughly a 5-6 point favorite tonight, and models show the Celtics with a significantly higher win probability. Boston has also been good straight up as road favorites this season - better win rates and more consistent results than Golden State as home underdogs.




5. Tactical Matchup Favors Boston Defense 🛡️


Without Curry forcing defensive rotations with elite shooting, the Warriors are less capable of pulling Celtics defenders out of position. Boston’s length and team defense can stay compact and make Golden State play through lower-efficiency options - a big edge in tight games like this. Teams in similar spots have struggled to maintain offensive rhythm without their leading scorer. This tactical edge strengthens Boston’s case.




Bottom Line: Bet Boston to Win Tonight 🎯


Given:


  • Curry out, major offensive downgrade for Golden State,
  • Warriors dealing with multiple injuries,
  • Celtics’ depth and recent results without Tatum,
  • Odds reflecting Boston as favorite,

…backing Boston on the moneyline or against the spread tonight looks like the sharper wager. Boston’s structure and consistency should overcome Golden State’s undermanned attack in this matchup.



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