Have You Ever Talked Someone OUT of Betting?

[FadeThePublic]

Tony I think the difference is you weren't trying to convince him.

You just told him the truth of your own position.

"I don't fully understand it after twelve years."

No argument. No case. Just honest admission of where you actually are.

That's harder to dismiss than a warning.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Because a warning can be wrong.

But someone admitting they don't have it figured out after twelve years is just... information.

Hard to argue with.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

This is making me think about why my conversation with my sister worked.

I didn't warn her.

I told her I was embarrassed about a number.

Not "this is bad and here's why."

Just "I'm embarrassed."

Personal. Not a case. Just a feeling.

Maybe that's the version that sometimes gets through.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Princess and Tony both describing the same thing from different angles.

Not argument. Not evidence.

Honest personal admission with no agenda attached.

The moment you try to convince someone you've already lost.

The moment you just tell them where you actually are you might have a chance.

 

[oli_sussex]

Sounds right.

Persuasion triggers resistance.

Honesty about yourself doesn't require a counter-argument.

There's nothing to push back against.

 

[ThePuntingProf]

I have tried once and the memory is not comfortable, my son James at twenty-six, he went through a period of betting recreationally and I could see the pattern beginning to organize itself in a familiar way, I sat him down and gave him what I believed at the time was the comprehensive honest account, the hours, the psychological cost, the way it changes your relationship to sport, the financial reality, I spoke for perhaps thirty minutes and was very thorough, he listened carefully and at the end asked me one question, he asked whether I had enjoyed it, I said yes, parts of it, he said that was what he'd thought and that seemed to be the end of the conversation, he stopped betting perhaps a year later but I don't believe my thirty minutes had anything to do with it, what I think I actually communicated in thirty minutes was that betting was something worth taking seriously enough to warn him about which may have made it more interesting rather than less, the one honest answer I gave, yes I enjoyed parts of it, was probably the only thing he actually heard.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Prof.

"Which may have made it more interesting rather than less."

Thirty minutes of warning as advertisement.

 

[DublinDegen]

the yes i enjoyed it part...

that's the thing that travels...

not the warnings...

the enjoyment...

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

So even our honest accounts contain the thing that draws people in.

We can't tell the full story without including the part that makes it sound worth trying.

 

[FadeThePublic]

That's the impossible problem.

A completely honest account of serious betting contains genuine excitement, community, intellectual stimulation, occasional real wins.

And also everything we discuss in this forum.

The honest version is not a deterrent.

It's a complicated picture that some people look at and still want to try.

Because they hear the excitement and believe they'll manage the rest differently.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Which brings us back to Oli's point.

It's not an information problem.

Even perfect information doesn't solve the "I'll be different" belief.

Because the belief isn't about the activity.

It's about themselves.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

So has anyone actually succeeded?

Like fully succeeded where the person definitely didn't start because of the conversation?

 

[TaffyTipster]

Maybe Princess did.

With her sister.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Possibly Tony's nineteen year old player.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Two possible successes in a thread of nine serious bettors who've collectively had dozens of these conversations.

 

[Klaus]

Low conversion rate.

Though perhaps higher than the books' preferred outcome.

 

[DublinDegen]

the saddest part for me...

the conversation i had with liam...

the one where i was at my worst and trying to protect him from becoming me...

he didn't become me...

he bets a little on weekends and seems fine...

but i don't know if that's because of what i said...

or because he's just not built the way i am...

some people can do this and be okay...

i couldn't...

and i couldn't have known which one he'd be when i was trying to warn him...

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Conor I think that's the most honest version of this whole discussion.

We're trying to warn people away from something that some of them would genuinely have been fine with.

We just can't tell the ones who'll be fine from the ones who'll become us.

And neither can they.

 

[oli_sussex]

The inability to identify who's at risk in advance is the core problem.

For the person being warned and for the person warning them.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Good thread Tony.

Came in thinking there'd be some success stories we could learn from.

Left thinking the whole endeavor might be structurally impossible.