Have You Ever Talked Someone OUT of Betting?

[CoachTony_Bets]

Question with an obvious answer that gets complicated the longer you sit with it.

Last spring one of my assistant coaches - 24, just started following sports betting content online, excited about it the way people are before they've done it seriously - told me he was thinking about getting into it properly. Build a system. Treat it like an investment.

I spent forty minutes telling him not to.

Described the hours. The line movement complexity. The way books limit winners. The psychological cost. The relationship friction. Everything I know after twelve years.

He listened. Said he'd think about it.

Started betting two months later. Parlay-focused. Down a few hundred already by his own admission.

The forty minutes made no difference.

But here's what I keep thinking about: I delivered that entire conversation while currently having three active bets on my phone. I never mentioned that part.

Has anyone actually succeeded in talking someone out of it? And does the fact that we're still doing it ourselves make us incapable of being convincing?

 

[SharpEddie47]

Tried twice. Failed twice. But differently.

First time: my nephew at 21. Sat him down properly. Spreadsheet of my costs. Hours tracked. Real numbers. He listened politely.

Bet on his first NFL Sunday. Still bets.

Second time: college friend who was clearly escalating. Losing amounts that mattered. Chasing patterns. I knew what I was looking at.

Told him directly what I saw. He got defensive. Stopped talking to me about it.

He didn't stop betting. He just stopped telling me about it.

So the second one I didn't just fail to stop him. I removed myself from the picture entirely.

Made it worse in a specific way.

 

[hemebet21]

Yes, a few times. Sometimes people want to bet just based on a random tip or hype. I usually tell them to slow down and at least check the odds and match stats first. Comparing lines from different sportsbooks can also give a better picture of the market.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Tried with my younger brother.

Eight years ago. He was twenty-two. Just started and already betting more than made sense on his salary.

Had the conversation in the car after a family thing. Told him what I'd seen happen to people. How the excitement phase ends. What comes after.

He said "you're just saying that because you don't want competition for tips."

Laughed it off. So did I.

He bet for three more years. Lost a significant amount.

Stopped on his own eventually. Not because of anything I said.

But that joke he made in the car. That's stayed with me.

He heard my warning as competitive self-interest.

Never even considered it might be genuine concern.

Because why would I know the costs if I was still paying them?

 

[FadeThePublic]

The hypocrisy problem is the whole thing.

You can construct a perfect argument. Airtight case. All the evidence.

And underneath it is a person currently holding an active account with money on games this weekend.

The argument dies on that contradiction before it's finished.

I've tried twice. Both times the person eventually said some version of "but you still do it."

No answer to that. Because there isn't one.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

I talked my sister out of it.

Or I think I did. Already posted about this in the kids thread.

Called her. Told her I'd lost nearly two thousand dollars. Told her it wasn't as fun as I made it look.

She'd been planning to sign up that week.

As far as I know she hasn't.

But I've been thinking about it since that thread.

Did it work because I was honest?

Or did it work because I'm a woman talking to a younger woman and the social dynamic is different from the "but you still do it" challenge?

Or did it just work because she caught her before the habit formed?

I genuinely don't know why it landed when everyone else's conversations didn't.

 

[Klaus]

Have not attempted to talk anyone out of betting.

No one in my real life bets seriously. Wife knows I bet. Has tried to discuss it. I have deflected.

So the only version of this conversation I have participated in is the one where I am the person being talked to.

And I have successfully avoided that conversation for fourteen years.

Which perhaps answers the question about whether these conversations work better than any success story would.

 

[DublinDegen]

tried to talk a friend out of it while i was at my worst...

liam... we grew up together... he'd just started and was enjoying it the way you do at the start...

i sat him down and told him everything... the losses... emma leaving... what it had done to me... the whole honest version...

he listened properly... took it seriously... said he'd be careful...

still bets now... recreationally... small amounts... actually seems fine...

so the conversation didn't stop him... but maybe it shaped something...

the strange part is i was in no position to be giving that advice...

hadn't showered in three days when i had that conversation...

was €12,000 down...

was the worst version of myself trying to protect someone else from becoming me...

don't know if that made it more convincing or less...

 

[TaffyTipster]

Conor that last part is something.

The worst version of yourself trying to protect someone from becoming you.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Conor that image is going to stay with me for a long time.

 

[SharpEddie47]

There might actually be something to what Conor's describing.

The polished version - here's the spreadsheet, here are the hours, here's the rational case - comes across as performance.

The genuine wreck version might be the only one that carries any weight.

But you can only deliver it when you're in no condition to deliver anything.

 

[FadeThePublic]

So the most convincing version of "don't do this" requires you to be visibly destroyed by it.

And at that point you're past making convincing arguments.

The credibility and the capability are inversely related.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

That's genuinely bleak.

Also probably true.

 

[oli_sussex]

Different angle.

At the exchange I watched colleagues try to dissuade family members from betting.

People who understood the mechanics better than almost anyone.

Zero success rate I'm aware of.

Because the argument isn't about information.

Nobody starts betting because they believe they'll lose.

They start because they believe they'll be different.

More information about why people generally lose doesn't address that belief.

It bounces off it.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Oli's identified the actual problem.

We're trying to counter a belief with evidence.

But the belief isn't based on evidence. It's based on identity.

"I'll be different" isn't an analytical claim. It's a self-concept.

You can't spreadsheet your way through someone's self-concept.

 

[KaliHunter]

I think a lot of people have had that exact situation. You explain all the downsides and the reality of betting seriously, but if someone is curious they usually try it anyway.

Sometimes people just need to experience it themselves before they really understand the grind behind it.

On another note, I saw the Big Adventures tournament finale is coming soon and they’ll draw the grand prize live on stream. Winner is randomly selected from the Top 100 players and the prize is a Maldives trip.

I didn’t make the Top 100 but I’m curious to see who ends up winning.

 

[TaffyTipster]

We all had the "I'll be different" belief once.

Some of us still have it.

 

[Klaus]

Still have it.

Despite fourteen years of evidence.

If I cannot dislodge it in myself with all available information, why would I expect to dislodge it in someone with none.