FadeThePublic
Market Sharp
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2024
- Messages
- 522
- Reaction score
- 11
- Points
- 18
The question that separates how you actually process outcomes from how you think you process them.
The correct answer for any serious bettor: luck is variance. Results over sufficient samples reflect edge. There's no such thing as being a lucky or unlucky bettor.
The honest answer for most bettors including serious ones: yes, I have a felt sense of whether I'm a lucky or unlucky person at this and it influences my behavior more than the correct answer would suggest.
The dangerous version of the luck self-concept: the unlucky bettor who believes a correction is owed.
Seven consecutive losing weeks. The analytical work is sound. The CLV is positive. The results are variance.
But the felt sense: I am currently unlucky and luck corrects itself.
The gambler's fallacy dressed in analytical clothing.
The series of losses doesn't predict future wins. The variance doesn't owe you. The unlucky self-concept produces exactly the behaviors that turn a bad variance run into a genuine bankroll problem.
Does anyone actually have a stable luck self-concept and does it affect their behavior in the ways I'm describing.
The correct answer for any serious bettor: luck is variance. Results over sufficient samples reflect edge. There's no such thing as being a lucky or unlucky bettor.
The honest answer for most bettors including serious ones: yes, I have a felt sense of whether I'm a lucky or unlucky person at this and it influences my behavior more than the correct answer would suggest.
The dangerous version of the luck self-concept: the unlucky bettor who believes a correction is owed.
Seven consecutive losing weeks. The analytical work is sound. The CLV is positive. The results are variance.
But the felt sense: I am currently unlucky and luck corrects itself.
The gambler's fallacy dressed in analytical clothing.
The series of losses doesn't predict future wins. The variance doesn't owe you. The unlucky self-concept produces exactly the behaviors that turn a bad variance run into a genuine bankroll problem.
Does anyone actually have a stable luck self-concept and does it affect their behavior in the ways I'm describing.
