Do Special Teams Matter for NFL Betting?

[Betting Forum]

A team loses field position by 15 yards per drive because their punt coverage is terrible and their return game is nonexistent. Over four quarters that's 60 yards of hidden disadvantage that never shows up in offensive or defensive stats.

This guide is for bettors who want to understand when special teams actually affect outcomes, which metrics matter, and how to identify when the market is mispricing special teams mismatches.

Most bettors completely ignore special teams until a kicker misses a game-winner and they lose a bet. That's backwards. Special teams create field position advantages, scoring opportunities, and occasionally swing games outright. The edges aren't massive but they exist, and nobody's looking for them.

Field Position Is Real Expected Value​

Field position determines how many yards an offense needs to travel to score. Starting at your own 40 versus your own 25 is a 15-yard difference, which might not sound like much until you realize that's 1-2 extra first downs needed just to get into scoring range.

Expected points models quantify this. A drive starting at your own 20 has an expected point value of maybe 1.2 points. A drive starting at your own 35 has an expected value of 1.8 points. That's a 0.6 point difference per drive. Over 12 drives in a game, field position advantages compound to 7-8 points.

Special teams is where field position battle happens. Good punt coverage pins opponents deep. Good punt returns start drives in plus territory. Bad coverage gives opponents short fields. Bad returns leave your offense starting behind schedule every possession.

The market prices offensive and defensive efficiency heavily but often underweights field position battle. A team with elite offense and defense but terrible special teams might be overvalued. A team with mediocre offense but excellent special teams field position might be undervalued.

Punting Net Average Tells You Nothing​

Everyone looks at punting average - yards per punt. It's a useless stat for betting purposes because it ignores coverage, hang time, and touchbacks.

A punter averaging 48 yards per punt sounds great until you realize half his punts are touchbacks that give the opponent the ball at the 20. He's not creating field position advantage, he's just kicking it far with no strategic value. Another punter averaging 44 yards with perfect hang time and placement is pinning opponents inside the 10 regularly.

Net punting average accounts for returns but it's still incomplete because it doesn't measure directional kicking, coffin corner attempts, or hang time that prevents returns. The best punters aren't necessarily the ones with the biggest legs, they're the ones who understand field position strategy.

For betting purposes, what matters is opponent's average starting field position after punts. If a team's punt unit consistently pins opponents inside their 20, that's creating 5-10 yards of field position advantage per punt. Multiply by 4-5 punts per game and you're looking at real expected point value.

Check where opponents start drives after punts. A team whose opponents average starting at the 18 has an elite punt unit. A team whose opponents average starting at the 27 has a terrible punt unit. That 9-yard difference per punt compounds over full games.

Kick Return and Coverage Asymmetries​

Some teams have elite kick return games that consistently start drives at the 30-32 yard line. Others are terrible and start at the 22-24 regularly. That's an 8-yard starting field position difference on every kickoff.

Kickoff coverage is the opposite side. Teams with elite coverage are forcing opponents to start at the 20-22. Teams with bad coverage are giving up returns to the 28-30 regularly. These create compounding advantages or disadvantages.

The really exploitable situations are asymmetric matchups. A team with elite kick return facing a team with bad kickoff coverage will start every drive with 5-10 yards of field position advantage. If that team also has good kickoff coverage facing a team with bad return game, they're winning field position battle on both sides by 10-15 yards per exchange.

Field position advantages of 10-15 yards per drive translate to roughly 0.5-0.7 expected points per drive. Over 12 drives that's 6-8 points. That's a real edge that the spread often doesn't fully capture.

Track average starting field position for and against for both teams. If one team averages starting at the 28 and their opponent at the 25, that's a small edge. If one team averages 30 and the opponent 23, that's a massive edge that's probably worth 1-2 points on the spread.

Kicker Reliability in Close Games​

Kickers win and lose games outright. A kicker who's 95% from 40-49 yards versus one who's 75% from that range is the difference between winning and losing multiple games per season.

The market somewhat prices elite kickers - everyone knows Justin Tucker is automatic. But the market doesn't fully account for the reliability gap between average kickers and bad kickers. A team with a kicker hitting 78% of field goals is leaving 2-3 points per game on the field compared to a team with a kicker at 87%.

This shows up most in close games and spreads of 3 or less. If you're betting a 3-point favorite with an unreliable kicker, you're taking on more risk that a makeable field goal gets missed and the game lands on the wrong side of the spread. If you're betting a 3-point underdog facing a team with an elite kicker, you're betting against a team that converts field position into points more reliably.

Check kicker field goal percentage by distance, especially 40-49 yards and 50+ yards. Those are the ranges that determine whether drives end in 3 points or 0 points. A kicker at 85% from 40-49 is solid. A kicker at 70% is a liability.

Also check extra point percentage. It sounds absurd but some kickers miss 2-3 extra points per season. In close games that's the difference between winning by 6 or 5, or losing by 1 instead of tying. Extra point reliability matters for spreads that land near key numbers.

Weather and Kicking Conditions​

Wind kills kickers. A 15 mph crosswind makes field goals from 45+ yards borderline impossible. Rain affects ball grip and footing. Cold weather reduces ball flight distance.

When betting games with significant wind - 15+ mph - fade teams that are likely to attempt long field goals. If a team's offense stalls frequently in opponent territory, they'll be attempting 45-50 yard kicks in wind, which is maybe 60-65% success rate instead of normal 75-80%.

The other angle is that bad weather pushes teams toward going for it more on fourth down in opponent territory because field goals become unreliable. This affects game flow and scoring patterns. Teams that would normally kick a 48-yarder might go for it on fourth-and-3 instead, which changes expected points calculation.

Dome teams traveling to outdoor stadiums in bad weather have kicker disadvantages beyond just their offense and defense adjusting. Their kicker has been practicing indoors all season. Suddenly he's kicking in 20 mph wind. His field goal percentage might drop 10-15 points from his season average.

Check weather forecasts 24-48 hours before games. If wind is projected at 18+ mph, that's going to affect kicking games significantly. Factor that into spread bets that might come down to field goals and into totals where field goals versus touchdowns changes scoring pace.

Blocked Kicks and Special Teams Chaos​

Blocked kicks are rare but they're game-changers when they happen. A blocked field goal returned for a touchdown is a 10-point swing - you go from +3 expected to -7 actual.

Some teams have terrible field goal protection and get kicks blocked multiple times per season. Others have excellent protection and rarely get blocked. This isn't random - it's technique and personnel. Guards and tackles who can't hold blocks on field goal rushes get beat repeatedly.

Blocked punts are similar. Teams with bad punt protection or slow punters get punts blocked. The opponent recovers in plus territory or scores on the return. That's a massive field position and scoring swing.

For betting, track blocked kick rates. A team that's had 3-4 kicks blocked already through 10 games has protection issues that will continue. A team that hasn't had a kick blocked in 3 seasons has excellent protection. When betting close games, the team less likely to have a special teams disaster has an edge that's not fully priced.

Onside Kick Recovery Rates​

Onside kicks matter in close games when the trailing team needs the ball back. Success rate league-wide is around 10-20% depending on whether the receiving team is expecting it.

Some teams are excellent at recovering onside kicks because they practice it and have personnel who specialize in it. Other teams are terrible at both executing onside kicks and defending them. These aren't huge edges because onside kicks are rare, but in games you expect to be close they matter.

The betting angle is late-game scenarios where a team is down 8-10 points with under 2 minutes left. If that team has historically good onside kick execution and the opponent has historically bad onside kick defense, the probability of a backdoor cover increases. Not by a lot, maybe 5-10%, but in spots where you're deciding between betting or passing, that can be the tiebreaker.

Track onside kick recovery rates for and against. A team that's recovered 3 of their last 10 onside attempts is way above league average. A team that's allowed opponents to recover 4 of the last 12 attempts against them has terrible hands teams. When these meet in a game you expect to be close, there's a small edge.

Return Touchdowns Change Everything​

A kick return or punt return touchdown is a random variance bomb that instantly swings a game. You're getting 7 points without your offense ever touching the ball. The opponent gets 0 points despite having just scored.

Return touchdowns are somewhat predictable based on personnel. Teams with elite return specialists - think Devin Hester historically, current guys like KaVontae Turpin - have return touchdown rates way above league average. Teams with no dangerous returners almost never score on returns.

The problem for betting is return touchdowns are still rare enough - maybe one every 150-200 returns - that you can't reliably predict them. But you can identify matchups where the probability is elevated. An elite returner facing bad coverage creates higher return touchdown probability than baseline.

When handicapping spreads, if one team has a dangerous returner and the other has poor coverage, that creates a small risk that the game swings randomly on a return touchdown. This makes the spread slightly less reliable. For totals, return touchdowns obviously push overs but they're too rare to build strategy around.

I mostly treat return touchdown risk as variance that you can't control. But in games where everything else looks even and you're deciding between two sides, checking return game matchups can be the tiebreaker.

Hidden Yards From Penalties​

Special teams penalties - holding on returns, running into the kicker, offsides on field goals - are hidden yards that affect field position and scoring.

A punt gets downed at the 8-yard line but there's a holding penalty on the return. Ball comes back to the 18. That's 10 yards of field position lost instantly. A team blocks a field goal but there's a running into the kicker penalty that gives the offense a first down. Instead of turnover on downs, the drive continues.

Teams with bad special teams discipline commit these penalties regularly. They're often not tracked in mainstream stats but they create field position and scoring swings. A team that commits 2-3 special teams penalties per game is giving away 20-30 yards of field position that compounds over the season.

For betting, check penalty rates on special teams specifically, not just overall penalty rates. Some teams have low offensive and defensive penalties but terrible special teams discipline. Those penalties might cost them 1-2 points per game on average through field position and momentum swings.

Coaching and Coordinator Quality​

Special teams coordinators vary wildly in quality just like offensive and defensive coordinators. Elite special teams coaches build units that consistently win field position and avoid disasters. Bad coordinators have units that give up big plays and commit penalties.

John Harbaugh came up as a special teams coordinator and the Ravens have historically had elite special teams under him. That's not coincidence - he prioritizes it, hires good coordinators, and allocates practice time to it. The Ravens consistently win field position battle, which helps them cover spreads as favorites.

Teams that view special teams as an afterthought suffer for it. They don't practice it enough, they stick backups on coverage units who can't tackle in space, and they get exploited. These teams lose close games because of special teams mistakes and don't cover spreads they should.

Track special teams coordinator changes. When a team hires a coordinator with a track record of excellence, their special teams will probably improve. When they hire a coordinator who's been fired multiple times, expect more of the same problems. This information takes 6-8 weeks to show up in stats but it's predictive.

Personnel Investment in Special Teams​

Teams that draft or sign specialists specifically for special teams roles take it seriously. Teams that just throw backups on coverage units don't. This shows up in performance.

Look at roster construction. Does a team carry gunners on the punt team who are specialists at getting downfield and making tackles? Do they have core special teamers who are primarily there for coverage units? Those teams will outperform in field position battle.

Teams that try to use all starters on offense and defense with backups on special teams get killed. The backups can't tackle as well, they don't have the speed to cover kicks, and they commit penalties because they're not as disciplined.

The Eagles under Andy Reid used to carry guys like Jason Avant who were average receivers but elite special teams players. That's roster construction that prioritizes special teams. Teams that do this consistently win field position battles and cover spreads better than expected.

For betting, check depth charts and see who's playing on special teams units. If it's all fourth-string guys and practice squad players, that unit will struggle. If there are actual specialists and solid rotation players, that unit will be competent at minimum.

Home Field Advantage and Special Teams​

Home field affects special teams more than people realize. Crowd noise disrupts communication on punt blocks and field goal attempts. Wind patterns in outdoor stadiums favor the home kicker who practices there weekly.

Dome teams have stable kicking conditions at home. When they travel to outdoor stadiums, their kicker is suddenly dealing with wind and elements he doesn't practice in. His field goal percentage drops. The opponent's kicker who practices in those conditions all season is unaffected.

This is especially relevant in late season games. A dome team traveling to Buffalo or Green Bay in December is facing kicking conditions their kicker has never practiced in. The Bills or Packers kicker has been dealing with it for months. That's a kicking advantage worth maybe 3-5% field goal success rate, which in close games can matter.

Check where teams play home games and where they're traveling. Dome to outdoor in bad weather creates kicking disadvantage. Outdoor to dome creates slight advantage for the traveling team's kicker. Sea level to Denver creates altitude effects that help kickers on distance but hurt on accuracy. These are small edges but they exist.

When Special Teams Actually Moves Lines​

Special teams rarely moves betting lines directly because the market doesn't price it heavily. But there are specific situations where it should affect your bets even if the line doesn't reflect it.

Kicker injuries or absences move lines slightly when the kicker is elite. If Justin Tucker is out, Ravens spreads might tighten by half a point. If a bad kicker gets replaced by someone competent, lines might not adjust at all even though there's real improvement.

Punt returner or kick returner injuries sometimes move lines if the returner is elite. But usually the market underreacts to this. Losing a dynamic returner who was starting drives at the 30 and replacing him with a guy who fair catches everything is worth 2-3 yards per drive, which compounds to real expected points.

Weather moves totals and spreads but often doesn't fully account for special teams impact. A total drops because of wind but it might not drop enough when both kickers are below average and likely to miss field goals. That's an under edge the market is missing.

Most of the time special teams edges are small - half a point or less on spreads, under a point on totals. But in markets this efficient, half point edges are real and they compound over many bets.

Tracking Special Teams for Betting​

If you want to incorporate special teams into handicapping, here's what actually matters.

Average starting field position for and against. This is the summary stat that captures everything - punt coverage, kick coverage, return games, penalties. A team starting drives at the 28 versus 24 is getting 0.5+ expected points per drive from field position alone.

Kicker field goal percentage by distance. Track 30-39, 40-49, and 50+ separately. Know which kickers are automatic from 45 and which are coin flips. In close games this determines whether field position turns into points.

Opponent average starting position after punts. This tells you punt coverage quality. Teams pinning opponents inside the 20 regularly are creating real field position value.

Blocked kick rates. Teams that get kicks blocked multiple times per season have protection issues that will continue. Teams that block kicks regularly have good rush units.

Return touchdown rates. Rare but worth tracking for the few teams with elite returners who create higher probability of game-changing plays.

Special teams penalty rates. Teams committing 25+ special teams penalties per season are giving away points through field position swings.

You don't need to track all of this for every team. Pick the games you're betting and check special teams matchups specifically for those games. If there's a significant mismatch - one team elite in multiple areas, opponent poor in those same areas - that's an edge worth 1-2 points that the market often doesn't fully price.

When to Ignore Special Teams Entirely​

Special teams matter most in close games. In blowouts they're irrelevant because the outcome is determined by offensive and defensive quality gaps that overwhelm small field position edges.

If you're betting heavy favorites or underdogs - spreads of 10+ points - special teams won't change the outcome. The talent gap is too large. A team that's 10 points better doesn't lose because they gave up 15 yards of field position per drive.

If you're betting a game you expect to be a shootout with both teams scoring 30+, special teams field position matters less because both offenses are scoring from anywhere. Field position advantages of 5-10 yards per drive don't matter much when offenses are explosive and efficient.

Special teams edges are most valuable in games you expect to be close and low-scoring. Defensive struggles, methodical offenses, field position battles - those are the games where special teams can swing outcomes. If the spread is 3 or less and the total is under 45, special teams matchups are worth checking. If the spread is 13 and the total is 52, skip it and focus on offense and defense.

FAQ​

How much are special teams worth on a spread?
Roughly 0.5 to 1.5 points depending on the mismatch size. An elite special teams unit facing a terrible one creates maybe 8-10 yards of field position advantage per drive, which translates to 0.8-1.0 expected points per game. In close games that can be the difference between covering and not covering.

Should I bet unders when kickers are bad?
Not automatically. Bad kickers miss field goals but that might just mean drives end in 0 points instead of 3. If both offenses are scoring touchdowns anyway, the kicker doesn't matter. But in low-scoring games where field goals matter, bad kickers do push things toward unders slightly.

Do return touchdowns happen often enough to matter?
No, they're too rare to build strategy around. But in matchups where an elite returner faces terrible coverage, the elevated probability is worth noting. It's variance you can't control but at least you know the risk exists.