Copa America 2016

[paul8209]

Copa America: Brazil - Ecuador

Ecuador made a really solid start to World Cup qualifying and ended 2015 on fire, but recent form has tailed off and they conceded two at home to Paraguay and three away to Colombia and are meeting a team they have a bit of an inferiority complex against. They also play with two holding players, but in their case this is so that the full backs can press on and they will be looking to exploit both flanks and get as many balls into the box as possible. They have goals in them, but the defence is a weakness and the central defenders go missing at times and are quite frankly a liability, witness the recent games with Colombia and expecially the two goals conceded against Paraguay .

No Neymar for Brazil, but after the failure last year and World Cup debacle, they could do with a good Copa, they won and conceded in both opening games in those tournaments and I see this playing out similarly, both scoring and probably a Brazil win. This version of the amba Boys are inexperienced and like Ecuador, the central pairing in the absence of Silva and Luiz are vulnerable and will be dealing with a lot of crosses in this game.

over 2.5 goals 2.21 asian line/Sportmarket

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[pizarro14]

I would currently not bet on any overs at the Copa América, especially not in the first round of matches. They have all been weak and teams have been careful. Even between Mexico and Uruguay, currently the only game >2.5 it took until the 85th minute for a third goal, somewhat helped by two red cards. Today: Argentina vs Chile, the most common result according to the stats is a 0-0 draw between the two. I think all things combined an under bet would be more than justified, I'd probably even go under 1.5 with how things have gone recently.

 

[paul8209]

Copa America: Colombia - Paraguay

This match is being played in Pasadena, so advantage Colombia having opened in Santa Clara, just a short hop down the coast and a beautiful drive along Highway 101 if you choose to go the scenic route ! Paraguay played in Orlando which means a six hour flight, three hour time difference and having played a day later, 20 hours + less recovery time. All these disadvantages add up and inbetween two tough games, I think it is the exta training session that Colombia will have been able to fit in that is the real bonus and I do think they will be looking to win the group. That would mean staying on the West Coast (Seattle) for their quarter final, as opposed to flying to New York and they would go to Houston in the semis if they won, which is where they are playing their final group game, so a big edge there , or rather no disadvantages, which is effectively the same thing ! It would also give Brazil the "option" to avoid them in the last eight and go into the separate half of the draw from both Colombia and Argentina, by finishing runner up in Group B. They might be without James Rodriguez today which is, of course, a loss, Los Cafeteros are 8-1-1 in his absence, although half of those starts were against weaker opposition than they face today.

Paraguay played as kind of expected against Costa Rica, which was not to lose, head coach Ramon Diaz has been very critical of the schedule (he is right) and the very hot draining conditions, on top of everything else, his team faced in Orlando . They had a lot of experienced and likely starters withdraw from the squad pre tournament, Aguliar, Ortigoza, Barrios and Caceres who all started in their last really good result a 0-0 draw with Argentina for example are missing ( nine players with 413 international starts were either left out , or pulled out of the final squad) and options are limited. Diaz is 95% certain to stick with the eleven who faced Costa Rica, given the weather, travel, time difference, less rest etc, is that a good or bad thing ?

Colombia's odds have risen to 2.15+ this morning, that probably relates to the "loss" of James, which is expected, but now means they are very backable, given that they hold almost every other advantage ..........


Colombia -0.5 ball 2.10 asian line/Sportmarket

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