Betting team totals vs game totals: Which offers better value

[ParlayPrincess_88]

I've been betting game totals for a while but I just noticed that you can also bet on individual team totals and I'm wondering if one is better than the other for finding value.
Like for example, instead of betting Chiefs vs Broncos over 47.5, I could bet Chiefs team total over 27.5 or Broncos team total under 17.5. It seems like team totals would give you more options and maybe more opportunities to find good bets?
The thing I'm confused about is how team totals relate to the game total. Like if the game total is 47.5 and the Chiefs team total is 27.5, does that mean the Broncos team total is automatically 20? Or can the two team totals add up to more or less than the game total?

I guess what I'm asking is are team totals easier to handicap because you're only focused on one offense instead of both teams? Or are they harder because the correlation between the two teams makes it more complicated?
Has anyone had success betting team totals versus game totals? Which one offers better value in your experience?

 

[SharpEddie47]

This is an excellent question that gets at some important concepts about betting market efficiency and correlation. Let me break down the mathematical and practical differences between team totals and game totals.

First, to answer your question about how team totals relate to game totals. The two team totals should theoretically add up to approximately the game total, but there's usually a slight discrepancy because the books build in extra juice by making the sum slightly higher than the game total. This is called the over/under differential and it's one way books extract edge from bettors who don't understand the relationship.

For example, if the game total is 47.5, you might see Team A total at 24.5 and Team B total at 24, which adds up to 48.5. The book is taking slightly more over action on both team totals while slightly more under action on the game total, allowing them to middle bettors and guarantee profit.

Now, regarding which offers better value, the answer depends on what kind of edge you're trying to exploit. Game totals have much higher betting volume which means they're more efficient. The closing line on a game total has incorporated millions of dollars of betting action from sharp bettors and the line is very difficult to beat. Team totals have less volume which theoretically means they could be less efficient and offer more opportunities.

However, here's the critical issue. Team totals are harder to handicap correctly because you need to account for game script correlation. If you bet Chiefs team total over 27.5, you're not just betting on whether the Chiefs offense is good. You're also implicitly betting that the game will be played at a pace and in a manner that allows the Chiefs to score that much.

If the Broncos play ball control offense and dominate time of possession, the Chiefs might only get 8 or 9 possessions instead of 11 or 12. Even if they're efficient on those possessions, they might not reach 28 points simply because they didn't get enough opportunities. That's game script risk that doesn't exist with betting the spread.

My experience over 20 years of tracking this is that team totals don't offer significantly better value than game totals for most bettors. The reduced efficiency is offset by the increased difficulty of handicapping correctly. The books are sophisticated about pricing team totals to account for correlation and game script scenarios.

Where team totals can provide value is in specific situations where you have strong conviction about one team's performance independent of the other team. For example, if you know a team's starting quarterback is injured but you think their defense will keep the game close, you might bet their team total under while staying away from the game total because you're uncertain about the opponent.

Team totals also allow you to express more nuanced views. If you think a game will be high scoring but you have more conviction about one team than the other, team totals let you isolate that specific view. But this requires sophisticated handicapping and most bettors don't have the edge to do this profitably.

My recommendation is to focus primarily on game totals which are more straightforward to handicap and have more market efficiency data available. Use team totals sparingly when you have specific situational edges that can't be expressed through game totals or spreads.

And always check the math. If Chiefs team total is 27.5 and Broncos team total is 20.5, those add to 48. If the game total is 47, that's a one point discrepancy that the book is building in as edge. You need to overcome that extra edge to profit on team totals.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

I actually use team totals more than game totals in my betting and I've found them to be quite profitable when used in the right situations. Eddie's right about the correlation issues but I think there are spots where team totals provide real edges.

From a coaching perspective, team totals allow you to focus on matchup advantages that might not be obvious in the game total. If I see a team with a great passing offense facing a secondary that's been destroyed by injuries, I can bet that team's total over without worrying about whether the other team will score enough to push the game total over.

Here's a specific example from earlier this season. There was a game where Team A had an elite offense but was facing a team with a terrible defense. The game total was 52.5 which seemed high but fair. However, Team A's team total was only 28.5. I thought that was too low given the matchup, so I bet Team A team total over.

The game ended up being 35 to 21, so the game total went under but Team A's team total went over. If I had bet the game total over I would have lost, but by isolating just Team A's performance I was able to win the bet.

The key to betting team totals profitably is understanding offensive and defensive matchups deeply. You need to know things like how a team's offensive line matches up against the opponent's pass rush, whether the receiving corps can exploit coverage weaknesses, whether the defensive scheme is susceptible to the opponent's offensive strengths.

I also use team totals in bad weather situations. If I think weather will slow down one team more than the other, team totals let me express that view more precisely than betting the game total. For example, if a dome team is traveling to play in heavy wind and cold, I might bet their team total under while staying neutral on the game total.

Eddie's point about game script is valid but it's also something you can predict to some extent if you understand how teams operate. If you know a team tends to play ball control when they get a lead, you can factor that into your team total handicapping. It's an additional variable to consider but not an insurmountable problem.

My record on team totals over the past three years is 56.3% which is better than my record on game totals at 53.1%. I attribute that to being able to focus my analysis on specific matchup advantages that are clearer at the team level than at the game level.

Princess to answer your question, I think team totals can offer better value if you're willing to do the detailed matchup analysis required. But they're definitely more complex than game totals and they require understanding game script and correlation issues that Eddie described.

 

[FadeThePublic]

I have a different take on team totals that's based on public betting patterns rather than matchup analysis. The public tends to overbet overs on team totals for popular teams and underbet unders on bad teams. This creates contrarian opportunities.

When the Chiefs or Bills or other high powered offenses have a game, the public hammers their team total over because they love betting on exciting offenses. This often pushes the team total higher than it should be and creates value on the under. Conversely, when a terrible offense like the Panthers plays, the public hammers their team total under which can create value on the over if the matchup actually favors scoring.

I track public betting percentages on team totals the same way I do for spreads and game totals. When I see 75% or more of public action on one side of a team total, I look closely at whether the line has moved too far and whether there's contrarian value on the other side.
The problem with team totals from my perspective is that they have less betting volume which means public betting patterns are less pronounced. It's harder to get reliable public betting percentage data on team totals compared to game totals or spreads. So the contrarian edge might exist but it's harder to identify and exploit.

I also agree with Eddie that the books build in extra edge through the over under differential. When you're betting team totals you're paying extra juice compared to betting the game total. You need a bigger edge to overcome that extra cost.
My approach is I primarily bet game totals and spreads where the public betting data is more robust and the edges are clearer. But I'll occasionally bet a team total if I see an extreme public imbalance or if there's a specific situational spot like Tony described where one team's performance is much more predictable than the overall game.

I will say that in-game team totals can be interesting. If a team gets out to a big lead early and their team total drops significantly, there might be value on the over if you think they'll keep scoring. Or if a team falls behind and their team total goes up because the public thinks they'll have to throw more, there might be value on the under if you think the game script will actually limit their possessions.
But for pregame betting, I think game totals are the better market to focus on for most bettors. The efficiency is higher, the public data is better, and the correlation issues are simpler.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay so it sounds like team totals can be good if you really understand matchups like Tony does, but they're more complicated because of the game script stuff Eddie mentioned. And you have to watch out for the books making the two team totals add up to more than the game total which gives them extra edge.

I think for someone at my level I should probably stick with game totals mostly since they're simpler and more straightforward. Maybe I can experiment with team totals occasionally when I feel really strongly about one specific team's offense or defense.

The example Tony gave about betting Team A's total over when they had a great matchup makes sense. Like if the Chiefs are playing a team with a terrible pass defense, betting Chiefs team total over might be smarter than betting the game total over because you're isolating the thing you actually have conviction about.

But I definitely need to learn more about game script and how that affects team totals before I start betting them regularly. It seems like there are more ways to be wrong with team totals compared to game totals.

One question though. Eddie mentioned that the two team totals usually add up to slightly more than the game total. Does that mean if I think both teams will score a lot, I should bet the game total over instead of both team totals over? Because with the game total I'm only paying the juice once instead of twice?

 

[SharpEddie47]

Princess that's exactly right. If you think both teams will score a lot, betting the game total over is more efficient than betting both team totals over because you're only paying juice once. The math is better on the game total in that situation.
The only time you'd want to bet both team totals over instead of the game total over is if you can get significantly better numbers on the team totals that overcome the extra juice. That rarely happens because the books are sophisticated about pricing the relationship between team totals and game totals.

Tony I respect your results on team totals and you clearly have developed an edge there through detailed matchup analysis. But I want to emphasize for other readers that your 56.3% win rate on team totals represents hundreds of hours of film study and coaching expertise that most bettors don't have.
For the average bettor trying to replicate Tony's approach without his background and work ethic, they're much more likely to get 49% on team totals and lose money to the juice. The danger is thinking that because team totals seem less efficient they must be easier to beat, when in reality they're harder to handicap correctly.

The situations where I think recreational bettors can profitably use team totals are limited to very specific spots like Tony mentioned. Bad weather affecting one team more than the other. A backup quarterback starting for one team but you're uncertain about the other team. A defensive injury that clearly impacts one team's ability to score but doesn't necessarily change your view on the game total.

These spots don't come up often, maybe once or twice a week across all games. If you're betting team totals multiple times per week you're almost certainly overextending beyond situations where you have genuine edges.
Fade's point about live betting team totals is interesting and worth exploring. The in game team total market might be softer than the pregame market because there's less betting volume and more opportunity for game script to create inefficiencies. But you need to be very careful about not getting middled by the book.

My final advice on this topic is that game totals should be your primary market for betting overs and unders. They're more efficient which sounds like a negative but it's actually helpful because it means you can trust the closing line as a benchmark. Team totals should be used sparingly in specific situations where you have strong conviction about one team's performance independent of the other team.
And always always check the math on the relationship between team totals and game totals. If the math doesn't make sense and the book is building in too much edge, skip the bet entirely regardless of how much you like the matchup.

Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Eddie's right that my success with team totals comes from a lot of work and specialized knowledge. I don't want to mislead anyone into thinking team totals are easy money. They're not. They require detailed analysis and understanding of factors that don't show up in basic stats.
The reason I shared my experience is to show that there are multiple paths to profitability in betting. Eddie's approach of focusing on market efficiency and closing line value works. My approach of detailed matchup analysis on team totals works. Fade's approach of contrarian betting works. Different methodologies can be successful if applied consistently with proper discipline.

Princess your instinct to stick with game totals while you're still learning is correct. Master one thing before trying to add complexity. Once you're consistently profitable on game totals, then you can experiment with team totals in small doses and see if you can develop an edge there.
I'll add one more practical tip about team totals. The best opportunities often come when there's a clear mismatch that the market hasn't fully priced. If a team with the number one passing offense is facing the number 32 pass defense and the team total seems too low, that's worth investigating. But you need to dig deeper and understand why the matchup exists and whether it's sustainable for a full game.

The game script issue Eddie mentioned is real. I've lost team total bets where my matchup analysis was correct but the game flowed in a way that limited the team's opportunities. That's the risk you take with team totals and it's why you need to be selective.
Overall I think this has been a good discussion of a complex topic. Both game totals and team totals can be profitable, but they require different skills and approaches. Most bettors should focus on game totals, but for those willing to do the extra work, team totals can provide edges in specific situations.

 

[FadeThePublic]

One last thing I want to add. If you do decide to bet team totals, track them separately from your game totals and calculate your ROI on each. After 50 or 100 bets you'll know whether team totals are actually profitable for you or whether you should stick to game totals.

Most bettors never do this kind of analysis and they keep betting things that aren't working for them just because they like the concept. Let the data tell you what to bet, not your preferences.

Princess I think you're approaching this the right way by asking questions and being thoughtful about whether to add team totals to your betting repertoire. That's much smarter than just jumping in and betting them because they seem interesting.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Thanks everyone for the detailed explanations. I feel like I understand the difference between game totals and team totals much better now and I understand that team totals are more complex than I initially thought. I'm going to focus on game totals for now and maybe try a few team totals here and there when I see a really obvious matchup advantage like Tony described. But I'll track them separately like Fade suggested so I can see if they're actually working for me. This forum has been so helpful for teaching me about all these different aspects of betting that I never would have figured out on my own. I feel like I'm learning something new every thread.