US OPEN 2026 PREVIEW
Main draw starts tomorrow. Sinner is out, Alcaraz hasn't played in four months, and 16 years of data say this is the one Slam where underdogs actually pay. Let's dig in.
The only Grand Slam where underdogs don't lose
Across 16 years of Pinnacle closing odds, the favourite-longshot bias that hurts underdog bettors at every other Slam barely exists here. At the AO, Roland Garros and Wimbledon, blindly backing underdogs loses money (-10% to -21% ROI). At the US Open, underdog yield is essentially break even, and over the last five editions (2021-2025) it was actually profitable.
Likely explanation: NY heat and late-season fatigue level the field more than the market prices in.
The men's draw
Sinner out (knee). Alcaraz hasn't played in four months (wrist). Djokovic is 39. Zverev underwhelming in tuneups.
And the Americans are peaking: Fritz won D.C., Shelton won Toronto, Tiafoe a set away from Cincinnati. It's been 23 years since an American man won a Slam. Bonus stat: no man has defended this title since Federer in 2008.
Our pick: Arthur Fils
Fils just won Cincinnati, capping a stretch of form building all summer. On fast hard courts he has it all: huge serve, explosive movement, ball-striking that hurts anyone. If the body holds through two weeks of best-of-5, he's a serious contender.
The women's draw
Sabalenka is the favourite but hasn't looked like herself all season, and her recent results don't inspire confidence at this price. The Americans are in form: Gauff has been consistently deep all year, Pegula is peaking at the right time. Both have the game and the crowd at their home Slam.
Our pick: Alex Eala
We flagged this one on X during her Washington run, when she was available around @ 75 to win the whole tournament. Eala is 21, fearless on hard courts, and climbing the rankings steadily. Washington showed she can compete with and beat top players.
Bonus: Venus and Serena are back in doubles
The Williams sisters reunite in New York for the first time in Slam doubles since 2022. This time doubles feels like the main event since Serena isn't playing singles and can put full focus into the partnership.
Full US Open coverage across our Dropping Odds tool and EV Scanner all tournament long. Good time to activate the free 7-day trial and catch the first week for free.
