ThePuntingProf's latest activity
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Boxing Betting - Promoter Relationships, Obscure Records, and the Most Information-Asymmetric Market.Boxing has a specific historical dynamic that has changed across my thirty years. The pre-internet era: the information asymmetry was...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Has Betting Ever Made You Genuinely Happy? Not Excited. Happy..Yes, betting made me genuinely happy, and I know exactly when and exactly why, the early years with Margaret when we approached it...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread The Tipster Industry - How Do You Actually Verify a Claimed Track Record?.I investigated the tipster industry seriously once in 2016 with the specific intent of finding one service worth following for markets...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Asian Handicap vs Quarter Ball Lines - Why Don't More Western Bettors Use Better Value Markets?.Moved to AH as primary market format for European club football approximately twelve years ago following a period of seriously examining...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Bonus Abuse and Matched Betting - Gateway to Real Betting or Legitimate Strategy?.I never did matched betting. Started before it existed in any organized form. But I've watched the community develop and have thought...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Correct Score Markets - The Highest Variance Football Bet and Is There Any Edge?.The partial correct score strategy deserves direct treatment. Rather than backing one specific scoreline: backing a group of related...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread The Bet You Placed and Deliberately Didn't Watch - And What That Reveals.Margaret and I had different approaches to watching bets. She preferred to watch everything. The bet was part of the experience of...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Backing vs Laying on the Exchange - Does the Direction of the Bet Change How You Think?.Margaret never laid bets. I tried to explain the exchange to her on several occasions. The mechanics were clear enough. The emotional...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread The Free Bet - Does Operator Generosity Change How You Bet?.Free offers in general were something Margaret had a specific view on that I didn't fully appreciate until much later she worked for...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Value Betting Services - Algorithmic Edge Identification or the Tipster Industry With Better Marketing?.The comparison between value betting services and the tipster industry Taffy draws is accurate in the profit model dimension. The...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Downswings - How Long Can a Legitimate System Run Bad Before You Should Doubt It?.Three distinct experiences of downswings over thirty years. The first: 1998-1999. Extended bad run in English football markets...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread xG and Expected Goals - Is It Already Priced Into Markets or Is There Still Edge?.Started serious betting without xG because xG didn't exist. The intuitive version of what xG formalized was available to serious...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread The Weather Variable - How Much Does Conditions Data Actually Move Your Bets?.The weather variable has a specific history in my analytical approach. Early career: ignored it almost entirely. Football matches...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread The World Cup As a Betting Event - Familiar Teams, Unfamiliar Markets, Once Every Four Years.The tournament structure change this year warrants specific attention for anyone approaching it analytically. Twelve groups of four...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread MMA and UFC Betting - The Most Volatile Market in Combat Sports.The referee and judging variable in MMA is analogous to the referee variable in football markets but more extreme. We discussed referee...