How to Spot a Fake Tipster Using Only Their Posts

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay so I'm down to 3 Twitter accounts (from 23!!) and I want to know if those 3 are fake lol. I can't tell. They all look the same to me?? They post a slip, they post a win, they say "lock of the day."
But I want to learn how to tell using ONLY what they post. Without paying anything or DMing anyone. Is that even possible? What do you look for? I feel like I would have fallen for every single one of them

 

[FadeThePublic]

Here's what nobody wants to hear: a real 65% bettor at -110 is making about 24% ROI. He'd be limited at every book within a month and he'd have zero reason to charge you $49 a month. (If I had a 24% edge I would not be selling it to you. I'd be hiding it from you.)
So start there. If someone sells the pick, ask what they'd do with the edge if it were real. The person with the edge scales it. The person without one sells the idea of it.
And "lock." Anyone who says lock is selling a feeling. Vegas knows there are no locks.

 

[patchworkfox]

Okay so I'm down to 3 Twitter accounts (from 23!!) and I want to know if those 3 are fake lol. I can't tell. They all look the same to me?? They post a slip, they post a win, they say "lock of the day."
But I want to learn how to tell using ONLY what they post. Without paying anything or DMing anyone. Is that even possible? What do you look for? I feel like I would have fallen for every single one of them

You can tell a lot from the posts alone. Things to check:

- Timing: is every pick posted before the event starts, with a timestamp you can see? Results posted after the fact, or edited posts, prove nothing.
- Price: do they post the odds they took? A pick without a price cannot be judged, and odds that are gone by the time followers see them are worth little to you.
- Losses: scroll back and count. If the losers are missing or deleted, the record is fake by default.
- Stakes and units: winners at 3 units and losers at 1 is a way to dress up a record.
- Sample: dozens of picks say nothing. Hundreds of priced, timestamped picks start to.
- Closing line: if their posted odds are regularly better than where the line closes, that is a real sign of skill even before the results settle.

If an account fails the first three, you do not need to look further.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Let me be clear about what a record is, because most of what circulates is not one. A claim of "27-3 this month" contains no price. At minus 500 you need to win 83% of the time to break even. 27-3 is 90%, which could be a small profit or a loss depending on the week. The win-loss column is the easiest number to manufacture, because you can fill it with heavy favorites. ROI over 500 or more bets at the posted price is the number, and almost no tipster publishes it.
Three checks can be done from the posts alone. First, was the pick posted before the event, with a timestamp the platform recorded and not an edited screenshot? Second, are the price and book stated, and was that price actually available when it was posted? Third, is there a denominator: every pick, wins and losses, in one place you can count?
I speak from experience. Early on I paid $60 a month for four months to a man with a verified record of 63%. The record was real. What I had not checked was whether the picks he posted were the picks he bet. He posted after the line had moved, at a price that was gone. The record was true and the product was not.
Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Dai in the pub.
Every Saturday tells the table his lock.
"Wales by twelve, you heard it here."
Loud when he's right.
Gone to the bar when he's not.
Never wrote one down.
Then one season I did.
Notes app.
Forty-one picks.
He hit eleven.
Eleven out of forty-one mun.
Everyone remembered the eleven.

 

[oli_sussex]

Two lists. Half the audience gets one side, half gets the other. Follow two accounts from the same service and compare the picks.

 

[ThePuntingProf]

One must consider that the oldest forgery of a record is not a lie about the results but a manufacture of them, and I should like to explain how it is done, because the arithmetic is rather neat, I once received through the post, in the early nineties, an unsolicited letter predicting the outcome of a Saturday cup tie, the following week a second letter arrived confirming that the prediction had been correct and offering a second, and after four such letters I was invited to subscribe, the method, which I recognised from the lecture theatre, is this, one writes to one thousand and twenty-four people, half are told that the home side will win and half that the away side will, the half who were told the true result receive a second letter, and again it is split, after ten rounds, which is to say two raised to the tenth power, exactly one person remains who has been sent ten correct forecasts in succession, and that person has every reason on earth to believe he is dealing with a genius, he has seen a record of ten and nought, it is perfectly genuine, it simply was never a forecast, the modern form is the free account and the paid account, or the account that posts one side to one audience and the other side to a different channel, I should add that I replied to the letter asking for the ten forecasts in writing together with the prices, and heard nothing further, which I took to be the most informative reply a tipster has ever sent me.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay that's so evil lol. Wait, two of my 3 post their picks at like 9:58 for a 10:00 game?? Is that bad?

 

[Klaus]

Yes. A pick posted after the market has moved is a description, not a pick.
I once logged one public account for a season. 140 picks. At the moment each was posted, the quoted price was still available at the book it named on 61% of them.
That means 39% were bets nobody could have placed. The posted record looked fine. The record available to a follower did not exist.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

As a coach I get a lot of "inside info" at clinics. Somebody always knows the head coach. Somebody always has a guy at the program who says the starting QB is out. I've learned one test: ask what he knew before it was public. Not after. After, everybody knew it.
A tipster who says "my source says he's out" gets the same test. Was the post timestamped before the report? Did it name something checkable? "I'm hearing" isn't a checkable thing.
I think there's a middle ground between "everyone's a fraud" and "trust the guy." Most of them aren't fraudsters. Most of them are people who got a hot month and turned it into a business, and the hot month is the thing they're selling.

 

[DublinDegen]

lads the tell that got me wasnt in the picks... it was in when they wrote to me... i paid three of them over the years... forty here sixty there... and every message that mattered came right after a bad night... id be down and the dm would land like they knew... tonight is the night to get it back...
they didnt know me... they just knew that someone down on a saturday night will answer anything with the word back in it... the whole product is the word back... get it back... win it back...
thats the thing id check first now... do they write like theyre talking to a winner or to someone whos just lost... only one of those pays for a pick...

 

[FadeThePublic]

Conor, that's the cleanest tell in the thread. (Cleaner than my math.) Check when the pitch posts. If the ads cluster after bad nights, after the late game, after a Sunday collapse, the audience they're writing for isn't winners.
The customer isn't the one who needs the pick. It's the one who needs it back.

 

[Klaus]

There is a measurable tell in the language. In the feed I logged, "variance" or "bad beat" appeared in 71% of loss posts and in none of the win posts.
A winning bet is credited to skill. A losing bet is credited to luck. Both cannot be true over a large sample. A genuine record attributes about the same share of each to chance, because the writer understands that the process is the same.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay I checked my 3!! Account 1 posts at 9:58 lol (cut). Account 2 only has wins. I scrolled for like 10 minutes and found 2 losses, and both said bad beat Account 3 posts the price, the book AND the stake. And recently he posted a loss and said he was wrong because he forgot the goalie was back.
So Account 3 is real?? Right??

 

[SharpEddie47]

Possibly. Three posts are not a record. Track his next 100 picks yourself, at the posted price, before the game. If you do not have 100, you do not have a verdict.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Account 3 posts why he was wrong. (That's literally my journal thing, so I'm biased.) The only tipster I ever kept had the same rule: every loss gets a post with the price, the stake and the reason he was wrong. His record was mediocre. That's why I believed him.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Right but hang on.
I tell the lads about the wins.
Never the losses.
Saturday I'll say Wales by twelve and nobody writes it down.
Am I Dai butt?

 

[FadeThePublic]

Taffy, you're Dai. (Lovingly.)

 

[SharpEddie47]

By the tests in this thread, a fair part of this forum would fail. I post screenshots of my tracking, and a screenshot can be edited. None of us can verify the others. What separates a forum from a tipster is not honesty. It is that nobody here is selling anything.
Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[oli_sussex]

Check who profits from your belief.