How to Spot a Fake Tipster Using Only Their Posts

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay so I'm down to 3 Twitter accounts (from 23!!) and I want to know if those 3 are fake lol. I can't tell. They all look the same to me?? They post a slip, they post a win, they say "lock of the day."
But I want to learn how to tell using ONLY what they post. Without paying anything or DMing anyone. Is that even possible? What do you look for? I feel like I would have fallen for every single one of them

 

[FadeThePublic]

Here's what nobody wants to hear: a real 65% bettor at -110 is making about 24% ROI. He'd be limited at every book within a month and he'd have zero reason to charge you $49 a month. (If I had a 24% edge I would not be selling it to you. I'd be hiding it from you.)
So start there. If someone sells the pick, ask what they'd do with the edge if it were real. The person with the edge scales it. The person without one sells the idea of it.
And "lock." Anyone who says lock is selling a feeling. Vegas knows there are no locks.

 

[patchworkfox]

Okay so I'm down to 3 Twitter accounts (from 23!!) and I want to know if those 3 are fake lol. I can't tell. They all look the same to me?? They post a slip, they post a win, they say "lock of the day."
But I want to learn how to tell using ONLY what they post. Without paying anything or DMing anyone. Is that even possible? What do you look for? I feel like I would have fallen for every single one of them

You can tell a lot from the posts alone. Things to check:

- Timing: is every pick posted before the event starts, with a timestamp you can see? Results posted after the fact, or edited posts, prove nothing.
- Price: do they post the odds they took? A pick without a price cannot be judged, and odds that are gone by the time followers see them are worth little to you.
- Losses: scroll back and count. If the losers are missing or deleted, the record is fake by default.
- Stakes and units: winners at 3 units and losers at 1 is a way to dress up a record.
- Sample: dozens of picks say nothing. Hundreds of priced, timestamped picks start to.
- Closing line: if their posted odds are regularly better than where the line closes, that is a real sign of skill even before the results settle.

If an account fails the first three, you do not need to look further.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Let me be clear about what a record is, because most of what circulates is not one. A claim of "27-3 this month" contains no price. At minus 500 you need to win 83% of the time to break even. 27-3 is 90%, which could be a small profit or a loss depending on the week. The win-loss column is the easiest number to manufacture, because you can fill it with heavy favorites. ROI over 500 or more bets at the posted price is the number, and almost no tipster publishes it.
Three checks can be done from the posts alone. First, was the pick posted before the event, with a timestamp the platform recorded and not an edited screenshot? Second, are the price and book stated, and was that price actually available when it was posted? Third, is there a denominator: every pick, wins and losses, in one place you can count?
I speak from experience. Early on I paid $60 a month for four months to a man with a verified record of 63%. The record was real. What I had not checked was whether the picks he posted were the picks he bet. He posted after the line had moved, at a price that was gone. The record was true and the product was not.
Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Dai in the pub.
Every Saturday tells the table his lock.
"Wales by twelve, you heard it here."
Loud when he's right.
Gone to the bar when he's not.
Never wrote one down.
Then one season I did.
Notes app.
Forty-one picks.
He hit eleven.
Eleven out of forty-one mun.
Everyone remembered the eleven.