Guess Your Own ROI Before Checking Your Records

[Klaus]

Tony's wife is an unusually clean external estimator.
She has no access to the sheet, no incentive to flatter the result, and she is closer than the person who keeps the records. Internal estimates drift towards the version the estimator prefers.
This is the same finding as the grading thread, from a different direction.

 

[DublinDegen]

the app says... 4,213... down this year...
i said fifteen hundred...
the guess wasnt really a guess... it was the number i could stand... same as the 90s i write next to the bets... the number isnt an estimate its the number that lets me keep going...
4,213 is two months rent... f**k...
ill leave it there lads...

 

[oli_sussex]

Check it monthly. The monthly number is smaller than the yearly one.

 

[ThePuntingProf]

I have opened the ledger, and the figure for the last twelve months is five point six per cent, against my estimate of seven point two, a shortfall of one point six, which I find I do not mind as much as I expected, the seven point two is the return on the Asian handicaps alone, which I verified over twelve years and which I quote because it is the cleanest figure I possess, but the ledger also contains the accumulators and the Arsenal matches, which I have never included in the headline figure, the Arsenal matches in particular, I established in two thousand and six that they ran at minus three point eight per cent against plus six point one on everything else, and I continued to bet on them regardless, Margaret thought this entirely reasonable, she said some things were worth more than money, and I had no answer then and have none now, so the figure I carry about with me is the figure for the part of the punting I am proud of, and the true figure includes the part I am not, I suspect she would have written five or six on her slip and been right, I have put my slip back in the envelope with the real figure written on the back of it, which is irregular, but there was no one to object.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Last twelve months: +1.7%. My guess was +4.0%.
I want to be precise about what this means, because it is easy to misread. It does not mean my edge has decayed. Over roughly 300 bets the standard error is about 5.8 points, so 1.7% and 4.1% are not statistically distinguishable. It means I carried a figure in my head for fifteen years that I had stopped checking, and when I finally checked the recent window it was lower.
The fifteen-year number is accurate. It has also been doing a job, which is telling me I am fine. I would prefer a number that updates.
Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay but what's a GOOD roi? Like what should I even be aiming for. Is minus 8.8 like... fixable or is it just what I am lol

 

[SharpEddie47]

A positive number, held over at least 500 bets. You do not yet have a number. You have approximately 250 bets of unrecorded data and a net loss. Start recording.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Tidy advice that, Princess.
Even I'd take it.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay I'm making a spreadsheet tonight. What do I even call the columns lol

 

[oli_sussex]

Date. Stake. Odds. Result. Reason.