Grade Your Own Bets: How Do You Score a Bet You Won for the Wrong Reason?

[SharpEddie47]

Let me be clear about the problem before proposing anything. Last month I won a spread bet on a game where I had misread the injury report. I believed the starting linebacker was out; he played. I believed the backup quarterback was starting; he did not. I backed the right side for reasons that were wrong on both counts, and it covered by a point and a half. My spreadsheet recorded it as a win. Positive units. It entered the same ROI calculation as every bet I have ever made with a correct read.
That is not a rounding error. It is a design flaw. A profit column measures what happened. It does not measure whether I was right. Across a verified 15-year record of +4.1% ROI, I cannot tell you how much of that number is skill and how much is variance that I recorded as skill.
So I am proposing a grade for every bet, assigned before the result: price, information, stake. Three questions. A winner that fails the information check is a windfall, not evidence.
The question I cannot answer: who is qualified to do the grading?
Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Here's what nobody wants to hear: the person grading the bet is the same brain that placed it (so good luck with that). I had a reverse line movement spot cash a while back. RIP public money, posted it, felt great. Went back through the line history later and the move came from one book changing its limits, not sharp action. The signal I thought I was fading never existed. Vegas knows, I just had no idea what it knew. That bet is still in my sheet as a clean sharp win.
Also, Eddie: "trust the process." Which one? The one that missed the injury report?

 

[SharpEddie47]

The process that missed the injury report is the process under audit, which is the purpose of an audit. You are conflating a flawed input with a flawed framework. The framework is how I found the error. Do the math on how many of your own reverse line movement wins would survive the same check.
Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay so I'm gonna admit something lol. I had a 5 leg parlay hit and one leg was literally just a feeling. I couldn't tell you why I added it. It was a banger, I posted the slip, everyone said nice. Now I add a feeling leg to every parlay.
I think I graded that bet an A because it paid? Like nobody ever told me the grade was supposed to be about something else

 

[oli_sussex]

Grade before the result. After it, you are grading the result.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Princess, a feeling leg is a coin flip with branding.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

lol rude. it was still a banger though