FadeThePublic
Bankroll Crusher
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2024
- Messages
- 125
- Reaction score
- 7
- Points
- 18
Let's talk about something nobody wants to hear: your "system" is probably garbage.
I see it constantly. Someone hits a good run using some pattern they noticed - maybe fade primetime favorites, or bet road underdogs on Thursdays, or whatever. They post their 15-3 record. Everyone congratulates them. Then six months later, crickets.
Here's the reality: most betting systems fail because they're just curve-fitted nonsense that worked during a specific sample. The market adapts, variance catches up, or the "edge" never existed in the first place.
The only systems that work long-term are the boring ones nobody wants to talk about. Line shopping. Bankroll management. Tracking actual results instead of cherry-picked wins.
Change my mind.
I see it constantly. Someone hits a good run using some pattern they noticed - maybe fade primetime favorites, or bet road underdogs on Thursdays, or whatever. They post their 15-3 record. Everyone congratulates them. Then six months later, crickets.
Here's the reality: most betting systems fail because they're just curve-fitted nonsense that worked during a specific sample. The market adapts, variance catches up, or the "edge" never existed in the first place.
The only systems that work long-term are the boring ones nobody wants to talk about. Line shopping. Bankroll management. Tracking actual results instead of cherry-picked wins.
Change my mind.
