What's the Most Money You've Spent RESEARCHING a Bet You Didn't Place?

SharpEddie47

SharpEddie47

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Thought experiment that became uncomfortable when I actually did the math.

Last month I spent six hours analyzing a Rams/Seahawks divisional matchup. Injury reports, historical splits, weather data, line movement tracking. Six hours.

I make $85/hour consulting. That's $510 in time cost before I placed a single dollar.

Then I decided the line had moved too far and I didn't bet it.

Negative $510 ROI on a bet I never made.

How much have you spent researching bets you ultimately didn't place? And does thinking about that research cost ever push you into placing a bad bet just to justify the time?
 
Have calculated this.

Annual subscription costs: €340 for data feeds, €180 for statistical databases, €120 for odds comparison tools.

Time investment per Bundesliga match researched: approximately 2.1 hours average.

Matches researched but not bet: roughly 35% annually.

Wasted research cost last year: approximately €2,800 in time value plus €230 in proportional subscription costs.

Never considered this before running the numbers just now.

Uncomfortable figure.
 
Oh god yes.

2022 NFL playoffs. Spent four days building a model for a specific matchup. Bought a data package I didn't already have. Probably eight hours total.

Line moved three points before I could get the bet down at the right number.

Didn't bet it at the new number because the value was gone.

Never used that data package again. $60 wasted plus the time.
 
Mine's less sophisticated but still stings.

Before the Six Nations last year I spent an entire Sunday reading injury updates, form guides, squad selections.

Six hours roughly.

Then Wales had a late withdrawal that changed everything and I didn't trust any of my analysis anymore.

Didn't bet any of the games I'd researched.

Watched them all anyway wondering if I'd have been right.

Probably would have been wrong.
 
Eddie's question about sunk cost is the real one.

I've definitely placed bets I wasn't fully confident in just because I'd spent too long researching them.

"I've already put three hours into this, I have to bet something."

That's backwards thinking. The time is spent regardless of whether you bet.

But knowing that doesn't stop the feeling.
 
I don't really research so I don't have this problem lol

But now I'm wondering if I SHOULD research and I'm realizing researching sounds exhausting??

Like six hours on one game?? That's a whole Saturday!
 
Research should be efficient or not done.

If analysis takes more than 45 minutes per selection, methodology needs simplifying.

If line moves before you bet, move on. Sunk time is sunk.

Never placed a bet to justify research cost. Categorically irrational.
 
Oli I agree with you in theory.

In practice I've done it anyway.

Spent four hours on something, line is still there, edge has narrowed slightly but it's still technically positive. I bet it.

Would I have bet it if the research had taken 20 minutes? Probably not.

The time investment created commitment bias.
 
opposite problem for me... i do zero research and still lose money...

always thought research was the answer... reading these numbers makes me think research is just another way to spend time and money on betting before you even place the bet...
 
I’ve spent hours researching games I didn’t bet too. I try to see it as paying for discipline, sometimes the edge is passing. The danger is forcing a bet to justify the time. Do you factor research time into your ROI?
 
Conor has accidentally discovered something.

Sometimes zero research and a bad bet costs less than six hours research and a bad bet.
 
Not quite correct.

Research increases win rate meaningfully. Justified over time.

But sunk cost logic is genuine trap. Research cost should never influence bet placement decision.

Theory clear. Practice apparently difficult even for disciplined bettors.
 
Here's the worst version of this I've done.

Spent a whole Thursday evening watching film on a college game. Missed dinner with my wife.

Friday morning I realized the starting QB was questionable - information I could have found in five minutes before any analysis.

All that work irrelevant. But I felt I had to bet the game to make the evening mean something.

Bet it. Lost. Wife asked how my "film session" went.

Said fine.
 
Tony that's the complete nightmare version.

Time cost, relationship cost, money cost, all for a loss.

And telling your wife it was fine.
 
The subscription angle is interesting too.

I pay for three data services. Total about $180 a month.

Some months I use them constantly. Some months they sit idle.

On idle months I'm paying $180 for nothing. But I keep them because I might need them.

It's like pre-paying for research I might not do on bets I might not place.
 
Eddie what services are you actually using?

Feel like I should probably get some.

Then I remember I lose less money the less I analyze.
 
zephyrx said:
I’ve spent hours researching games I didn’t bet too. I try to see it as paying for discipline, sometimes the edge is passing. The danger is forcing a bet to justify the time. Do you factor research time into your ROI?
Click to expand...
I dont factor it. Its my hobby after all. Time is not lost for me while doing it.
Yeah forcing a bet is very dangerous.
 
Princess correct.

Most bettors don't account for subscription costs in ROI calculation.

True ROI = (winnings minus losses minus subscription costs minus time value).

Almost nobody calculates it this way. If they did, "profitable" bettors would discover they aren't.
 
Brighton correct and important.

My stated ROI: approximately 4.2% annually.

My actual ROI accounting for all costs including time: approximately 1.8%.

Still positive. But significantly less impressive.

Most bettors who claim small positive ROI are likely negative after true cost accounting.
 

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