What Time Do You Place Your Bets - And Is That the Worst Hour for Your Decision-Making?

[SharpEddie47]

Tony's point about structure as the intervention rather than decision quality as the intervention.

The eleven midnight bets I found in my data: I could try to improve my analytical quality at midnight.

Or I could close the app at 10pm and not have the eleven.

The second approach doesn't require better analysis. It requires a committed rule.

Klaus's evening window is a committed rule that makes the second approach automatic.

The rule as the solution rather than the willpower as the solution. This forum has arrived at this conclusion before in different threads. It keeps being true.

 

[Klaus]

The rule replacing the willpower decision.

This is the structural insight that the tracking data eventually forces.

If you know from the data that bets placed after 22:00 underperform: the correct response is a rule against bets after 22:00.

Not an intention to try harder after 22:00. A rule.

The rule converts a recurring willpower decision into a one-time structural decision.

One decision made when you're thinking clearly rather than many decisions made when you're not.

 

[oli_sussex]

Willpower depletes. Rules don't.

This applies to betting hours specifically and decision-making generally.

 

[DublinDegen]

the rule rather than the willpower...

this is the version that works for the things i've managed to change...

the harm reduction that's worked hasn't been trying harder in the moments...

it's been changing what's available in the moments...

the moments at 1am where the market was open and i was awake: the intervention wasn't better analysis...

it was not being in that situation...

which required changes that started well before 1am...

earlier evenings, different things to do at night, not having certain apps on the phone...

the hour was the visible surface of something longer...

the fix was also longer than just the hour...