The Skill of Not Betting: Does Your Pass Rate Matter More Than Your Win Rate?

[SharpEddie47]

Eleven winners without a denominator is not a statistic. It is a feeling with a number attached.

 

[Klaus]

Six passes from fourteen filled slips is 43%.
The number matters less than the empty reason box. It did the passing for her. A rule that makes the pass automatic is more reliable than a decision to pass.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Eight weeks. 320 fixtures assessed, 72 bets placed, 248 passes logged and graded at close as if placed at the price available at decision.
The 248 passes would have returned minus 2.3%. That is approximately 5.7 units of expected loss that I did not take. My 72 placed bets returned +2.6%, or 1.9 units.
Two points. First, the passing was correct, and I now have a number to say so. Second, I will be honest that 248 bets cannot separate minus 2.3% from zero, the standard error being about 6.3 points. The log has to run for a year before it tells me anything firm.
I did notice something that is not in the numbers. Writing the pass down is itself a decision. It made me look at each one twice. I will keep the log whatever it eventually says.
Trust the process, not your gut.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Passed on Wales on Saturday mun.
Sat on my hands through the whole second half.
Bronwyn asked if I was ill.