The Information Arms Race: Is Betting Becoming Impossible for Non-Professionals?

[Klaus]

Accurate analogy.

Even improving bettors fall behind if market improves faster.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Okay I'll concede the market is harder.

But "impossible" is too strong. Difficult, yes. Impossible, no.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Fair Fade. Maybe not impossible but approaching impractical for most people.

The ROI required to justify time investment keeps decreasing.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

That's what I'm struggling with. I spend 10-15 hours a week on betting research.

My ROI has dropped from 6% to maybe 3%. Is that worth my time anymore?

 

[Klaus]

Time opportunity cost analysis critical.

If 15 hours weekly generates 3% ROI on $25,000 bankroll = $750 annual profit.

$750 divided by 780 hours = $0.96 per hour.

Financially irrational unless entertainment value considered.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Jesus Klaus when you put it that way...

I make $35/hour at my coaching job. Maybe I should just work more and bet less.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Tony that's the harsh reality check many of us need.

Is betting still worth the time investment given declining edges?

 

[TaffyTipster]

I make about 6k a year on rugby.

Probably spend 5 hours a week on it.

250 hours times what I make as electrician is like 15k.

So I'm losing 9k by betting instead of working overtime.

F**k.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

You guys are making this so depressing!

Can't you just bet for fun without calculating hourly wages??

 

[oli_sussex]

Princess correct. If enjoyment factor included, calculation changes.

But pure ROI analysis? Most bettors losing money on time investment.

 

[FadeThePublic]

This thread started as "is betting getting harder" and became "should we all quit."

 

[SharpEddie47]

That's the natural conclusion Fade.

If market evolution makes profitable betting impractical for amateurs, why continue?

 

[DublinDegen]

lads from my perspective youse all sound insane... youre profitable and asking if you should quit... meanwhile im in therapy for losing thousands and cant quit... perspective is wild...

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Conor that's... actually a really good point.

We're here complaining about declining ROI while still being profitable. Pretty privileged position.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Conor with the wisdom.

 

[Klaus]

Conor raises important point.

Profitable betting, even at reduced ROI, objectively successful outcome.

Perspective matters.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Conor I'm glad therapy is helping!!

How many sessions now?

 

[DublinDegen]

seven done... making real progress... probably wont bet seriously again even if i could... not worth the mental health cost...

 

[SharpEddie47]

Proud of you Conor. That's mature perspective.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Alright so where does this leave us?

Market is harder. Edges are smaller. Is recreational betting dead or not?