The Gambler's Ruin Problem: Is Betting Mathematically Impossible Without Infinite Bankroll?

[SharpEddie47]

If you're okay with the risk of losing your whole bankroll eventually, then yes it's fine.

Just understand the mathematical consequences.

 

[DublinDegen]

this whole thread is making me realize how little i understood about what i was doing... like i just bet whatever whenever... no wonder i lost so much money...

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Conor that self-awareness is really important. Most people never get there.

 

[ThePuntingProf]

The psychological difficulty of Kelly betting cannot be overstated, during our 2011 losing streak when Margaret and I lost forty-seven units our bankroll dropped substantially which meant our proper Kelly bet sizes also decreased significantly, the temptation to maintain previous bet sizes to recover losses quickly was enormous but we maintained discipline and reduced our stakes proportionally, within six months we had recovered and our Kelly percentages gradually increased again as bankroll rebuilt, this is the crucial test that most bettors fail, they refuse to decrease bet size during drawdowns which violates Kelly principles and exposes them to ruin risk.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Prof that's the hard part innit.

You're losing and your bets get SMALLER not bigger.

Feels wrong even though it's right.

 

[SharpEddie47]

That's exactly why most people can't follow Kelly.

During a losing streak your bets shrink, which feels like giving up.

But mathematically it's the only way to avoid ruin.

 

[FadeThePublic]

I'll be honest - I struggle with this too.

When I'm down, I want to bet bigger to get back to even faster.

Have to consciously fight that urge.

 

[Klaus]

Universal psychological challenge.

Loss aversion and recency bias work against Kelly discipline.

Requires mathematical mindset over emotional reaction.

 

[oli_sussex]

Why most bettors fail. Can't separate emotion from mathematics.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Real question: does anyone here actually recalculate their bankroll and adjust bet size regularly?

Or do we all just kind of estimate?

 

[SharpEddie47]

I recalculate monthly. Update my bankroll figure and adjust unit size accordingly.

It's tedious but necessary for true Kelly betting.

 

[Klaus]

Weekly recalculation for me.

Automated in spreadsheet. Updates unit size based on current bankroll.

 

[oli_sussex]

Continuous tracking. Python script updates bankroll real-time.

 

[TaffyTipster]

I check my Betfair balance before betting and just try not to bet too much.

Definitely not doing weekly calculations.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Monthly for me. Should probably do it more often.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

I just look at my DraftKings account and see what I have lol

No calculations happening!

 

[DublinDegen]

i never tracked anything until recently... therapist has me writing down every bet now... its eye opening how much i was betting...

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

That's good Conor. Awareness is the first step.

 

[SharpEddie47]

So consensus is: gambler's ruin is real, Kelly Criterion solves it mathematically, but most people don't follow Kelly strictly?

 

[Klaus]

Accurate summary.

Theory elegant. Practice difficult.

Human psychology undermines mathematical optimization.