SharpEddie47
Market Sharp
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2024
- Messages
- 656
- Reaction score
- 16
- Points
- 18
The bet that existed in analysis but not in execution.
2016. Panthers-Broncos Super Bowl. I'd spent three weeks building a specific model for defensive impact on high-pressure playoff offenses. The edge I identified: the Broncos defense was significantly underpriced relative to their actual probability of neutralizing the Panthers' pass structure.
The line was available. The edge was genuine. My stake sizing calculation was complete.
Got to the placement screen. A call came in from a client. Long call. When I finished the line had moved significantly and the edge was gone.
That specific bet, unplaced, stuck with me for years.
Not because I know I would have won. I don't know that. I know the model was right and the edge was real at the price that existed before the call.
The Broncos won. Shut down Cam Newton comprehensively. The bet would have won.
But the thing I've never fully resolved: I track every bet I place. I don't systematically track the bets I identified and didn't place.
The survivorship bias in unplaced bets is enormous. I remember the ones that would have won. I have no record of the ones that would have lost.
What's the best bet you never placed. And are you sure you'd have won it.
2016. Panthers-Broncos Super Bowl. I'd spent three weeks building a specific model for defensive impact on high-pressure playoff offenses. The edge I identified: the Broncos defense was significantly underpriced relative to their actual probability of neutralizing the Panthers' pass structure.
The line was available. The edge was genuine. My stake sizing calculation was complete.
Got to the placement screen. A call came in from a client. Long call. When I finished the line had moved significantly and the edge was gone.
That specific bet, unplaced, stuck with me for years.
Not because I know I would have won. I don't know that. I know the model was right and the edge was real at the price that existed before the call.
The Broncos won. Shut down Cam Newton comprehensively. The bet would have won.
But the thing I've never fully resolved: I track every bet I place. I don't systematically track the bets I identified and didn't place.
The survivorship bias in unplaced bets is enormous. I remember the ones that would have won. I have no record of the ones that would have lost.
What's the best bet you never placed. And are you sure you'd have won it.
