SharpEddie47
Market Sharp
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2024
- Messages
- 656
- Reaction score
- 16
- Points
- 18
Going to lay out the math first because I want everyone looking at the same numbers.
Five-leg accumulator. Each selection at evens. Each market has 5% house edge.
Fair probability of each leg winning: 50%.
Actual implied probability after house edge: 52.6%.
Your true probability of winning a five-leg acca at evens: 0.5 to the power of 5 = 3.125%.
The acca pays at 31/1.
Fair odds for 3.125% probability: 31/1.
Odds you actually get after the house edge compounds across five legs: approximately 24/1.
You're getting 24/1 on a 31/1 chance.
The house edge on a single bet: 5%.
The house edge on a five-leg acca at evens: roughly 22%.
The math is unambiguous and has been available to anyone who looked for about forty years.
Saturday football accas are a British cultural institution regardless.
I have never built an acca in twenty years of betting.
I want to understand why people who know this do it anyway. Genuine curiosity. Not judgment.
Five-leg accumulator. Each selection at evens. Each market has 5% house edge.
Fair probability of each leg winning: 50%.
Actual implied probability after house edge: 52.6%.
Your true probability of winning a five-leg acca at evens: 0.5 to the power of 5 = 3.125%.
The acca pays at 31/1.
Fair odds for 3.125% probability: 31/1.
Odds you actually get after the house edge compounds across five legs: approximately 24/1.
You're getting 24/1 on a 31/1 chance.
The house edge on a single bet: 5%.
The house edge on a five-leg acca at evens: roughly 22%.
The math is unambiguous and has been available to anyone who looked for about forty years.
Saturday football accas are a British cultural institution regardless.
I have never built an acca in twenty years of betting.
I want to understand why people who know this do it anyway. Genuine curiosity. Not judgment.
