FadeThePublic
Market Sharp
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2024
- Messages
- 493
- Reaction score
- 11
- Points
- 18
Going to make a strong claim and see who pushes back.
Same Game Parlays are the most carefully engineered extraction product the sports betting industry has ever built.
Not because of the house edge alone. Traditional parlays have always been bad value.
Because of what SGPs actually do that regular parlays don't.
Regular parlay: you know you're combining independent bets. The math is visible even if most people don't do it.
SGP: you're combining correlated outcomes from the same game. The correlation adjustment is entirely opaque. You cannot calculate what the fair price is without the book's proprietary model. You are betting on a price you have no ability to evaluate.
A bet you cannot evaluate is not a bet. It's a donation with paperwork.
FanDuel's SGP product alone generates revenue that would have seemed impossible fifteen years ago.
That money came from somewhere. It came from people who couldn't see what they were buying.
Same Game Parlays are the most carefully engineered extraction product the sports betting industry has ever built.
Not because of the house edge alone. Traditional parlays have always been bad value.
Because of what SGPs actually do that regular parlays don't.
Regular parlay: you know you're combining independent bets. The math is visible even if most people don't do it.
SGP: you're combining correlated outcomes from the same game. The correlation adjustment is entirely opaque. You cannot calculate what the fair price is without the book's proprietary model. You are betting on a price you have no ability to evaluate.
A bet you cannot evaluate is not a bet. It's a donation with paperwork.
FanDuel's SGP product alone generates revenue that would have seemed impossible fifteen years ago.
That money came from somewhere. It came from people who couldn't see what they were buying.
