Italy Round 08

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Hellas Verona v Sassuolo
Prediction: Sassuolo

H2H:
- Sassuolo won 2 of their last 3 games against each other (both wins away from home)

Hellas Verona
- Verona is currently in the ninth place of Serie A after a decent start to the 20/21 season
- When we analyze GA and xGA, we see that the team has been overachieving: they have conceded only 5 goals and xGA were 12. This also means that they are conceding clear opportunities to the opponents
- Verona only has one game where xG>xGA (0-0 draw against Genoa), having 3 wins, all of them with xG<xGA

Sassuolo
- Sassuolo is currently in the third place in the league, with less two points than the leader AC Milan, after a very consistent start of the season
- They still haven't experienced a defeat (4 wins, 3 draws)
- It currently has the best attack in the league (tied with Atalanta) with 18 goals in 7 games (2.57 per game) - and it is expected to materialize it against a side that concedes many opportunities as Verona
- They won their 3 games away from home

The current odds seems too high since I believe Sassuolo have a probability of winning above 50% - a good opportunity for a value bet.

The same bet was placed by a Betmarkets bettor @2.03
 
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