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2 STARS = Blue Jackets (at +107 or 2.07) vs Canadiens
2 STARS = Canucks (at +130 or 2.30) at Stars
2 STARS = Maple Leafs (at +131 or 2.31) at Golden Knights
2 STARS = Oilers (at +123 or 2.23) at Sharks
1 STAR = Jets (at +166 or 2.66) at Predators
The Blues pick is based on three betting systems: "The Big Upset", "The Snapped Winning Streak" and "The Cold Teams Matchup".
Here are the details of "The Big Upset" strategy:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 in decimal format (i.e. +170 in American format). If Team B's next game is against a different opponent called Team C, bet Team C is its money line is greater than 1.667 in decimal format (i.e. -150 in American format, to avoid betting big favorites which did not prove to be profitable)."
Tampa's last game was a 4-3 loss to Winnipeg, where the Jets' money line was 2.88. For this reason, we are going to bet AGAINST the Lightning tonight (since St. Louis is NOT a big favorite today).
The pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:
"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are playing at home with a money line greater than 2.05 (i.e. +105 in American format)."
Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets.
The Rangers have allowed 4 and 9 goals in their last two meetings, respectively. Since they are indeed home underdogs, we are backing them tonight at MSG.
Nice hit with the Rangers upsetting the top team in the league last night, yet another rewarding betting day!
RECORD:
Bets won = 29
Bets lost = 26
Profit = +$10.69 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's picks are:
5 STARS = Red Wings (at +151 or 2.51) at Blue Jackets
4 STARS = Sabres (at +192 or 2.92) at Bruins
4 STARS = Flyers (at +144 or 2.44) at Hurricanes
4 STARS = Maple Leafs (at +103 or 2.03) at Coyotes
2 STARS = Flames (at +135 or 2.35) at Blues
The Detroit pick is rated 5 stars because it meets the criteria of three different betting angles: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Cold Team versus Hot Team matchup".
This pick is based on "The Big Upset" betting system, which goes like this:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 (i.e. +170 in American format). If Team B's next game is against Team D whose money line is greater than 1.667 (i.e. -150 in American format), bet Team D."
The latter part allows us to avoid betting big favorites; past data suggest they are not good value bets under such circumstances.
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 27.81 units via 600 bets.
It is not one of my favorite betting angles for a few reasons, which is why such picks are rated just 1 star. This season thus far: +4.04 from 18 bets.
Montreal was the victim of a fairly big upset in their last game; the Rangers beat them despite 2.98 odds. According to the criteria above, we are therefore betting against them tonight.
2 STARS = Golden Knights (at +117 or 2.17) at Predators
2 STARS = Jets (at +125 or 2.25) at Sharks
1 STAR = Ducks (at +127 or 2.27) at Coyotes
The Blues pick is based on three betting systems at a time, including "The Cold Team vs Hot Team Matchup", which goes like this:
"Bet a road team coming off 2+ straight LOSSES when facing a home team coming off 2+ straight WINS. Bet only if the road team's money line is greater than 2.25 in decimal format."
Over a nine-year period, this strategy yielded a profit of 42.69 units via 428 bets.
In this case, St. Louis is undergoing a two-game losing skid, while Tampa is riding a three-game winning streak. Since the odds on the Blues are indeed larger than 2.25, we are betting them tonight!
2 STARS = Golden Knights (at -132 or 1.76) at Rangers
1 STAR = RedWings (at +177 or 2.77) vs Islanders
The Detroit pick is based on "The Porous Defense" betting angle:
"Suppose a team allows 4+ goals in each of its past two games. Bet them tonight if they are playing at home with a money line greater than 2.05 (i.e. +105 in American format)."
Using this system over a nine-year period led to 27.64-unit gains via 267 bets.
The Wings have allowed 5 and 6 goals in their last two meetings, respectively. Since they are indeed home underdogs, we are backing them tonight.
It also fits my contrarian approach; they won't be a sexy pick considering they have lost their past nine games.
Today's system picks are (what??? 9 system picks out of 10 games, I've never seen that before!):
5 STARS = Stars (at -109 or 1.92) at Jets
4 STARS = Hurricanes (at +135 or 2.35) at Bruins
4 STARS = Maple Leafs (at -114 or 1.88) at Flyers
4 STARS = Coyotes (at +119 or 2.19) at Blue Jackets
3 STARS = Lightning (at +104 or 2.04) at Predators
2 STARS = Senators (at +145 or 2.45) at Canucks
2 STARS = Sharks (at +107 or 2.07) vs Capitals
1 STAR = Islanders (at +111 or 2.11) at Canadiens
1 STAR = Devils (at +125 or 2.25) vs Golden Knights
The Dallas pick is based on the following three betting systems: "The Scoring Drought", "The Stingy Goalies" and "The Snapped Winning Streak". The latter goes like this:
"Bet against a team whose winning streak of length 3+ was just snapped in their previous game. Bet only if your team's money line is greater than 1.667 (i.e. -150 in American format)."
This betting strategy used over a nine-year period led to gains of $87.34 through 1045 bets.
In this case, the Jets just got their three-game winning streak snapped, so we are fading them tonight.
1-1 last night for a +0.90 unit profit since the Sens were able to pull off a big upset in Edmonton.
RECORD:
Bets won = 43
Bets lost = 46
Profit = +$7.25 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's system picks are:
5 STARS = Blackhawks (at +199 or 2.99) at Bruins
4 STARS = Coyotes (at +134 or 2.34) at Flyers
3 STARS = Sabres (at +144 or 2.44) at Flames
2 STARS = Sharks (at +145 or 2.45) at Hurricanes
1 STAR = Jets (at +140 or 2.40) at Stars
The Arizona pick is based on two betting systems, including "The Hot Teams Matchup" betting angle:
"Bet a road team coming off 1-2 straight win(s) when facing a home team coming off 3+ straight wins."
This system yielded a profit of 66.87 units via 483 bets over a nine-year period.
According to this betting strategy, since the Coyotes have won one game in a row and the Flyers are riding a five-game winning streak, we're going to back Arizona.
Despite a 2-3 record, we made a profit thanks in large part to the Blackhawks pulling off the big upset in Boston!
RECORD:
Bets won = 45
Bets lost = 49
Profit = +$7.58 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)
Only one team meets the criteria of one of my 10 NHL betting systems:
3 STARS = Kings (at +146 or 2.46) at Oilers
This pick relies on "The Big Upset" and "The Scoring Drought" strategies.
Here are the details of "The Big Upset" angle:
"Suppose Team A upsets Team B with odds greater than 2.70 (i.e. +170 in American format. If Team B's next game is against Team C, bet Team C if its money line is greater than 1.667 (i.e. -150 in American format)."
This system yielded a profit of 27.81 units via 600 bets over a nine-year period. Not my personal favorite, but I'm still using it.
In Edmonton's last game, they were upset at home against the Sens. Ottawa's money line was much bigger than 2.70. According to the system, we need to bet AGAINST the Oilers, which means we're taking the Kings (unless they had been big favorites, which is not the case here).
VERY NICE!! Both picks hit last night (both underdogs), including the 5-star play as the Blue Jackets upset the Caps in Washington!
RECORD:
Bets won = 47
Bets lost = 50
Profit = +$9.96 (from RISKING 1$ on every play)
Today's plays based on my 10 NHL betting systems:
4 STARS = Canadiens (at +145 or 2.45) at Penguins
4 STARS = Ducks (at +145 or 2.45) at Wild
4 STARS = RedWings (at +210 or 3.10) at Jets
2 STARS = Sharks (at +150 or 2.50) at Predators
2 STARS = Devils (at +179 or 2.79) at Stars
1 STAR = Blackhawks (at +176 or 2.76) at Golden Knights
1 STAR = Rangers (at +106 or 2.06) at Kings
The Rangers pick barely qualifies under "The Blowout" betting system:
Bet a team that blew out its previous opponent by a margin of 3+ goals. The team we bet must be on the road and its money line must be greater than 2.05 (which essentially means they must be underdogs).
This betting angle generated gains of 60.49 units over 818 bets through a 9-year span.
The Rangers' last game was a convincing 5-0 win over Vegas. Since they are indeed on the road tonight with odds barely above 2.05, we are backing them.
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