cRUTHIK13
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- Joined
- Dec 20, 2025
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Colorado vrs Baylor Under 156.5
Multiple projection models have Baylor winning in the low 80s with Colorado in the low 70s - a combined total that clusters around 153-155, below most posted numbers. One major model specifically gives the 157.5 total a slight edge to the UNDER based on 10,000-game simulations.
Baylor comes off a defense-first road win at West Virginia, holding WVU to 36% shooting. Scott Drew has emphasized half-court execution at home after early Big 12 struggles in Waco. That typically translates to:
That profile favors tempo suppression, not track-meet basketball.
Colorado just blew out TCU at home, but their offense has been far less consistent on the road. The Buffs rely heavily on perimeter efficiency; if threes normalize or regress in a hostile environment, scoring can dry up quickly.
Baylor’s season has been heavily impacted by injuries, forcing shorter rotations. Short benches often lead to:
That dynamic tends to cap total possessions, which benefits the UNDER.
1) Market Models Lean Under
Multiple projection models have Baylor winning in the low 80s with Colorado in the low 70s - a combined total that clusters around 153-155, below most posted numbers. One major model specifically gives the 157.5 total a slight edge to the UNDER based on 10,000-game simulations.
2) Baylor Likely to Control Pace at Home
Baylor comes off a defense-first road win at West Virginia, holding WVU to 36% shooting. Scott Drew has emphasized half-court execution at home after early Big 12 struggles in Waco. That typically translates to:
- Fewer transition possessions
- Longer offensive sets
- More clock usage in close games
That profile favors tempo suppression, not track-meet basketball.
3) Colorado’s Road Offense Is Volatile
Colorado just blew out TCU at home, but their offense has been far less consistent on the road. The Buffs rely heavily on perimeter efficiency; if threes normalize or regress in a hostile environment, scoring can dry up quickly.
4) Injury-Driven Rotation Tightening
Baylor’s season has been heavily impacted by injuries, forcing shorter rotations. Short benches often lead to:
- Slower pace
- More deliberate possessions
- Less sustained pressure defense (fewer live-ball turnovers → fewer easy points)
That dynamic tends to cap total possessions, which benefits the UNDER.
