Guide How Do NFL Betting Markets Work? Spreads, Totals, Moneyline & Props

[Betting Forum]

NFL betting has more markets than any other sport and most beginners don't understand what they're actually pricing. The spread isn't just "who wins by how much." Totals aren't just "how many points." Each market prices different scenarios and understanding that changes which bets make sense.

This guide is for anyone new to NFL betting or anyone who's been betting one market without understanding the others. What each market actually means, what it's pricing, and when to use which one.

The main markets and what they price​

NFL offers six main betting markets. Each one prices a different question about the same game.

Spread prices margin of victory. Moneyline prices who wins outright. Totals price combined scoring. Team totals price one side's scoring. Props price specific events. Teasers let you buy points across multiple bets. They're all connected but they're not interchangeable.

Most people learn one market and stick with it. That's leaving edge on the table. The best bet isn't always in your preferred market.

Spread - pricing margin of victory​

The spread is the most common NFL market. It's asking "will the favorite win by more than X points or will the underdog lose by less than X points?"

Chiefs -7.5 versus Broncos +7.5 means the Chiefs need to win by 8 or more for Chiefs -7.5 to win. If the Chiefs win by 7 or less, or lose outright, Broncos +7.5 wins. The spread equalizes the matchup so both sides should theoretically have roughly equal chance of covering.

Standard pricing is -110 on both sides, meaning you risk $110 to win $100. That's the vig. Sometimes you'll see -115 or -105 on one side, which tells you where the sharp money or public money is leaning.

What the spread actually prices: the market's expectation of margin combined with variance. A 7-point spread doesn't mean the favorite will win by exactly 7. It means the market thinks the favorite is about a touchdown better, accounting for the range of outcomes. Weather, injuries, motivation, matchup style - all of that gets baked into the number.

The key number concept matters in NFL more than any other sport. Games land on 3 and 7 more than any other margins because of field goals and touchdowns. Moving from -2.5 to -3.5 crosses a key number. Moving from -6.5 to -7.5 crosses another. You're paying for those in the price. If you see Chiefs -3 at -120 instead of -110, that's the key number tax.

Moneyline - pricing win probability​

The moneyline removes the spread. It's just asking who wins the game. Favorites have minus odds, underdogs have plus odds.

Chiefs -320 / Broncos +260 means you risk $320 to win $100 on the Chiefs, or risk $100 to win $260 on the Broncos. The bigger the favorite, the more you have to risk to make profit worthwhile.

What the moneyline actually prices: pure win probability with vig included. A -320 price implies roughly 76% win probability. A +260 price implies roughly 28% win probability. Those don't add to 100% because of the vig. The book is taking roughly 4-5% on both sides combined.

When the moneyline makes sense: when you think the favorite wins but might not cover a large spread. Chiefs -10.5 on the spread but you think it's a 17-13 type game? Chiefs moneyline is the play. When you think an underdog has a real chance but might lose by 4-6 points. Broncos +7.5 is safer but Broncos moneyline pays more if they actually pull the upset.

Moneyline gets ignored by beginners because the prices look scary. Laying -400 on a heavy favorite feels bad. But sometimes it's the right bet if the alternative is laying -10 points in a low-scoring matchup where field position matters.

Totals - pricing combined scoring​

The total is the combined points from both teams. Over 47.5 means you need 48 or more total points. Under 47.5 means you need 47 or fewer.

Standard pricing is -110 on both sides like the spread. Sometimes you'll see -115 or -105 which tells you where the money is leaning.

What totals actually price: expected scoring environment. Weather is huge. Wind and cold kill passing and red zone efficiency. Dome games or warm weather games score more. Pace matters - teams that run plays fast create more possessions and more scoring chances. Defensive matchups matter - two elite defenses usually go under, two weak secondaries usually go over.

The total isn't just adding up each team's average points. It's asking what this specific matchup creates. Chiefs averaging 28 points per game and Broncos averaging 19 doesn't mean the total should be 47. The Chiefs might score 35 against this defense. The Broncos might score 10 because they can't protect the quarterback.

Totals move with injuries more than spreads. If the starting quarterback goes down, the total usually drops 3-7 points depending on the backup. Defensive injuries matter too but the market under-adjusts for those compared to offensive injuries.

Team totals - pricing one side's scoring​

Team totals isolate one team's scoring. Chiefs team total Over 27.5 means you only care if the Chiefs score 28 or more. You don't care what the Broncos do.

What team totals actually price: one side's offensive capability against the specific defense and game environment. This is where matchup analysis matters most. You're not guessing the total score, you're analyzing whether one offense can exploit one defense.

When team totals make sense: when you have a strong opinion on one team but not the other. You think the Chiefs will shred this secondary for 35 points but you have no idea if the Broncos will score 10 or 24. Chiefs team total Over is cleaner than picking the full game total.

Team totals also matter for game script. If you think the Chiefs go up big early, their team total Over is safer than the full game Over because the Broncos might not score enough in garbage time to push it over. If you think it's a close game throughout, the full total might be better because both teams will be aggressive.

Team totals are less efficient than full totals. The vig is usually higher - you might see -115 or -120 instead of -110. That's the price for isolating one variable. Only pay it when you actually have an edge on that specific team.

Props - pricing specific events​

Props are bets on specific events within the game. Player props are most common - Patrick Mahomes Over 274.5 passing yards, Travis Kelce Over 5.5 receptions, team to score first, longest touchdown, all of that.

What props actually price: isolated variables with higher vig. Props are less efficient than main markets. The book takes more juice because fewer people bet them and they're harder to price accurately. That creates opportunity but also risk.

Props require more specific knowledge. Betting Mahomes passing yards means you need to understand his usage, the opponent's pass defense, weather, game script, pace. It's more work than just picking a side. Most people bet props recreationally - parlaying five player props because it's fun. That's fine if you're gambling for entertainment. If you're trying to find edges, you need to be more selective.

The edge in props usually comes from game script. If you think the Chiefs will be trailing and throwing all game, Mahomes passing yards Over makes sense. If you think they'll be up big and running clock, his passing yards Under makes sense even though he's an elite quarterback.

Props also move less than main markets. A key injury might drop the game total by 4 points immediately. The same injury might only move a related prop by 0.5. If you're fast on news and understand the implications, props can lag.

Teasers - buying points across multiple bets​

A teaser lets you adjust the spread or total in your favor across multiple games, but you have to win all of them. Standard NFL teasers are 6-point teasers with two or three teams.

Example: Chiefs -7.5 becomes Chiefs -1.5. Broncos +3.5 becomes Broncos +9.5. You move both spreads 6 points in your favor. If both cover the new number, you win. If one loses, the whole teaser loses.

Typical teaser pricing is -110 for a two-team teaser, -120 or -130 for a three-team teaser. You're getting better numbers but you're creating correlation risk. Two legs have to both win.

What teasers actually price: crossing key numbers with correlated risk. The value in teasers comes from moving spreads across 3 and 7. Taking a -8 favorite down to -2 crosses two key numbers. Taking a +1.5 underdog up to +7.5 crosses a key number. That's real value. Taking a -4 down to +2 or a +9 up to +15 isn't crossing anything meaningful and you're just paying the teaser price for nothing.

Teasers require discipline. Don't tease totals - the key number concept doesn't apply. Don't tease heavy favorites or big underdogs - you're wasting the points. Tease through 3 and 7 with reasonable spreads, usually in the -7.5 to +2.5 range.

Stanford Wong's work on teasers is the standard reference if you want to get serious about them. The short version: tease underdogs through 7, tease favorites through 3, avoid everything else.

How the markets connect​

The markets aren't independent. They're all pricing the same game from different angles.

If the spread is Chiefs -7.5 and the moneyline is Chiefs -320, that's telling you the market thinks the Chiefs win about 75% of the time by an average margin of 7-8 points. If the total is 47.5, the market is implying something like Chiefs 28, Broncos 20 as the median outcome. None of those are exact but they're all connected.

When markets don't align, that's information. If the spread suggests a close game but the total is very high, the market expects a shootout with variance. If the spread is large but the moneyline isn't extremely heavy, the market thinks the favorite wins often but not by huge margins - field position battle, lots of 10-13 point wins.

You can use one market to inform another. If you think the total is too low and both teams will score, that probably helps the underdog more than the favorite. High-scoring games are higher variance and the underdog needs variance to cover or win outright.

Where to bet NFL if you're American​

If you're in the US, legal options depend on your state. If you're outside legal states or want offshore options, the books that have been reliable for Americans are Bovada, BetOnline, Bookmaker, and Everygame. Those are the ones that actually pay, have been around for years, and have reasonable juice on NFL.

Bovada is the most beginner-friendly. BetOnline has more props. Bookmaker has sharper lines if you're more advanced. Everygame is fine for standard bets. Don't use random offshore books you find through affiliate spam. Stick to established names that have track records.

If you're in a legal state, use the legal books. Better regulatory protection, easier deposits and withdrawals, competitive lines. Shop around between FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars. Lines vary by a half-point or more on the same game.

Which market to use when​

This is where most people get it wrong. They have a strong opinion on a game and force it into their preferred market. That's backward.

Use the spread when you have an opinion on margin and the spread feels wrong. Chiefs should win by 10-14 but the spread is -7.5? That's a spread bet.

Use the moneyline when you have an opinion on winner but not margin. You think the underdog pulls the upset but you're not sure by how much? Moneyline is cleaner than hoping they cover a small spread.

Use totals when you have an opinion on scoring environment, not on winner. Two bad offenses, terrible weather, elite defenses? Under makes sense regardless of who wins.

Use team totals when you have a strong opinion on one side's scoring but not the other. You think this offense will shred this defense but you don't know if the other team keeps pace or gets shut down? Team total isolates what you actually know.

Use props when you have specific information about usage or game script that the market hasn't fully priced. Injury to the starting running back means the backup gets 20 touches? His props might not have adjusted yet.

Use teasers when you can move through key numbers on reasonable spreads. Otherwise avoid them.

Common mistakes by market​

• Spread: chasing big favorites at -10 or more without considering game script and pace
• Moneyline: laying huge prices like -500 without understanding the actual win probability and vig
• Totals: betting based on team averages instead of specific matchup and environment
• Team totals: paying the extra juice without having a real edge on that specific side
• Props: parlaying five player props for fun instead of betting one with actual edge
• Teasers: teasing totals or teasing through non-key numbers, wasting the value
• All markets: not shopping lines across books, leaving half-point and price differences on the table

Realistic scenario​

You think the Chiefs beat the Broncos but the Broncos will keep it close with their defense and run game. The spread is Chiefs -10.5 at -110. The moneyline is Chiefs -450. The total is 44.5.

What's the play? Chiefs -10.5 feels too high if you expect a close game. Chiefs -450 on the moneyline means risking $450 to win $100, which is brutal if you're wrong. The Under 44.5 makes sense if you expect a defensive game with the Broncos controlling clock. Broncos +10.5 might be the cleanest bet if you think they lose by a field goal or touchdown.

The point is you don't force it into one market. You ask which market best matches what you think happens. Most people pick a market first then try to justify the bet. Do it backward. Figure out what you think happens, then find the market that prices it.

After the game, write down which market you used and why. Did the game actually play out the way you expected? Did you pick the right market for your opinion? This is how you learn which markets fit which situations.

FAQ​

Which market has the best value?
No market is automatically better. It depends on the specific game and where your edge is. Totals are often softer than spreads because fewer people analyze scoring environment properly. Props can be exploitable around news and game script. Shop for your edge, don't assume one market is always best.

Should I ever parlay NFL bets?
Parlays increase variance and vig. If you're betting for fun, fine. If you're trying to find edges, stick to straight bets. The only exception is teasers where you're buying through key numbers - that's a structured parlay with actual value. Random parlays are just paying extra juice for excitement.

Why are the odds always -110 and not even money?
That's the vig - the book's edge. They need roughly 52.4% win rate to break even at -110. If spreads and totals were even money, they wouldn't make money. The -110 price is standard across sports betting. Shop for -105 when you can find it but expect -110 as the baseline.