SharpEddie47
Market Sharp
- Joined
- Mar 4, 2024
- Messages
- 648
- Reaction score
- 16
- Points
- 18
The COVID natural experiment gave us something no controlled study could.
A full season of major European football without crowds.
The Premier League 2019-20 restart: home win rate dropped from the historical 46% to approximately 44%.
Bundesliga 2019-20: more dramatic. Home wins fell from 45% to 38%.
The immediate conclusion: crowd presence accounts for a significant portion of home advantage.
Remove the crowd and the effect partially disappears.
But here's the question I haven't seen addressed properly.
Has home advantage fully recovered since fans returned. Or has the COVID experiment permanently altered something.
The teams who learned to perform in empty stadiums. The players who discovered their performance was less crowd-dependent than they believed. The sports science improvements that traveled with squads that were no longer commuting from away grounds.
My records suggest Premier League home advantage has not fully returned to pre-2019 levels.
If that's correct and the market is still pricing historical home advantage: there's a structural edge in the away team direction that most bettors are ignoring.
A full season of major European football without crowds.
The Premier League 2019-20 restart: home win rate dropped from the historical 46% to approximately 44%.
Bundesliga 2019-20: more dramatic. Home wins fell from 45% to 38%.
The immediate conclusion: crowd presence accounts for a significant portion of home advantage.
Remove the crowd and the effect partially disappears.
But here's the question I haven't seen addressed properly.
Has home advantage fully recovered since fans returned. Or has the COVID experiment permanently altered something.
The teams who learned to perform in empty stadiums. The players who discovered their performance was less crowd-dependent than they believed. The sports science improvements that traveled with squads that were no longer commuting from away grounds.
My records suggest Premier League home advantage has not fully returned to pre-2019 levels.
If that's correct and the market is still pricing historical home advantage: there's a structural edge in the away team direction that most bettors are ignoring.
