Have You Ever Deliberately Bet Small on Something You Were Certain About?

Came in thinking certainty was a straightforward asset.

Leaving thinking it might be a liability I've been misreading for years.
 
The most certain I've ever felt about a bet is the one I reference when I want to remind myself to be humble.

That's probably the right use of certainty.

Evidence of your own fallibility. Not permission to bet big.
 
The question everyone should ask before their most confident bet:

What am I not seeing because I'm too sure to look?
 
never asked myself that once...

going to try to remember it...

probably won't in the moment...

but going to try...
 
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