Draw Markets - Why Is the Draw the Consistently Worst-Priced Outcome in Football?

The attention gap.

The market is priced on the attention the outcome receives.

Home wins and away wins get serious attention from serious bettors.

The draw gets emotional hedgers and uncertainty-avoiders.

The serious bettor who specifically targets draw conditions is exploiting the quality of company they're in when they back a draw.

Most of the money on that outcome comes from people who don't know why they're backing it.
 
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