FadeThePublic
Market Sharp
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2024
- Messages
- 514
- Reaction score
- 11
- Points
- 18
The 2-1 home win.
It's the most backed correct score in almost every Premier League match. The public's default correct score selection when they want backing the home team to feel sophisticated.
The 2-1 is consistently overpriced because of this volume concentration. The operators know this and shade it accordingly.
The market that attracts the most public attention has the worst value. This is the fade-the-public principle applied at correct score level.
But the correct score market has a specific problem beyond the individual scoreline overpricing.
The house edge across the correct score market is genuinely enormous. We're talking 15-25% in many cases compared to 5-7% on match result markets.
The public is paying four times the margin for the privilege of predicting the exact scoreline.
Can any analytical approach overcome a 15-25% house edge. That's the central question and I don't have a clean answer.
It's the most backed correct score in almost every Premier League match. The public's default correct score selection when they want backing the home team to feel sophisticated.
The 2-1 is consistently overpriced because of this volume concentration. The operators know this and shade it accordingly.
The market that attracts the most public attention has the worst value. This is the fade-the-public principle applied at correct score level.
But the correct score market has a specific problem beyond the individual scoreline overpricing.
The house edge across the correct score market is genuinely enormous. We're talking 15-25% in many cases compared to 5-7% on match result markets.
The public is paying four times the margin for the privilege of predicting the exact scoreline.
Can any analytical approach overcome a 15-25% house edge. That's the central question and I don't have a clean answer.
