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This article is for intermediate-to-advanced bettors who have some working angles but no system for maintaining them.
I spent two years betting without a proper system for tracking my angles and it cost me. Not just money, but time rebuilding ideas I'd already figured out once. You forget the specific conditions that made something work. You remember the wins but not the exact setup. Then you try to recreate it six months later and can't figure out why it's not printing anymore.
The library mindset fixes this. You track your angles like assets. You maintain them. You check if they're still working. When the evidence says they're done, you retire them without getting emotional about it.
Why Edges Have Expiration Dates
Markets get smarter. Teams adapt. Information spreads faster. An angle that printed money in 2022 can be completely neutral by 2024 once everyone else spots the same pattern.That doesn't mean your angle was fake. It means it had a lifecycle and you missed the part where it died.
I had this happen with a corners angle in early 2021. I'd found something about how certain Championship teams were terrible at defending corners when their tallest center-back was suspended or injured. Tracked about 35 bets, won maybe 28 of them, thought I'd cracked something real. Then I lost 18 of the next 25 and gave back everything plus more.
The edge hadn't disappeared overnight. It had been slowly eroding for months while I kept betting it the same way because it was "my thing." I'd stopped checking if the prices were still there. Stopped verifying if teams were still vulnerable in the same way. Just kept betting it because it used to work.
That's what kills you. Not losing the edge, but not noticing when it's gone.
How to Actually Document Your Angles
You don't need a complicated database. You need a simple template that forces you to be specific about what you think you've found.I use a Google Sheet with these columns: angle name, market type, conditions that have to be true, why I think it works, one clear example, and what would make me stop using it. Every time I take a bet based on a repeatable idea, I tag it to an angle in my betting log.
The "conditions" column is the most important one. It needs to be specific enough that Future You can apply the same logic without reinventing it. Not "tired teams struggle" but "teams playing third match in 7 days with 2+ away trips, facing a rested opponent who's had 6+ days off, in a match where they need points."
If the conditions aren't that tight, the angle is probably not real. Or at least not reproducible.
I also write down my expected edge in normal language. Not hype, not "this is unbeatable," just something like "small but consistent, maybe 3-4% if I'm selective." Being honest here matters because it stops you from convincing yourself later that a mediocre angle is better than it actually is.
The "what would invalidate this" part forces you to decide upfront what failure looks like. Is it 30 bets with no profit? Is it CLV going negative? Whatever it is, write it down now so you're not making that decision emotionally later when you're six bets into a losing run.
Using Your Library Without Forcing Bets
A library only works if you're honest about when angles apply. This is where most people fail. They've got an angle they like, the match is on TV, they want action, so they convince themselves the conditions are "close enough."If your angle says X and Y both need to be true, then "almost X and sort of Y" is not a bet.
I'm guilty of this too. I have an angle about newly promoted sides struggling away from home in the first 10 matches of the season. Works pretty well. But I've caught myself stretching it to match 11 or 12 because I wanted to bet the match anyway. That's not using the library, that's using the library as permission to bet something I already wanted.
The other thing that helps is separating tested angles from experimental ones. If you think you've spotted something new, label it as a test in your log. Stake smaller, track it carefully, and don't let it graduate into your main library until it's earned that spot over a real sample.
I've got a separate section in my sheet called "watching" for stuff that feels promising but hasn't proven itself yet. Half of them never make it to the main library. That's fine. Better to test small than bet big on an idea that turns out to be noise.
Checking If Your Angles Are Still Working
You need a review rhythm. I do this monthly for high-volume angles, or after 50-100 tagged bets for lower-volume ones.I'm looking at three things: is this angle still producing positive value compared to my estimate? Is it still beating closing lines consistently? Does it still make logical sense given how teams are playing now?
If all three are yes, keep going. If one is starting to slip, I don't panic and kill it immediately. I just downgrade it to "watch list" and reduce my stakes by maybe 20-30% while I gather more data. Edges don't always die cleanly. Sometimes they just fade slowly and you need to catch that before you've bet it 200 more times.
Here's what a good review looks like in my notes from last month: "Fatigue angle after European midweek - 67 bets since August. Still showing small positive CLV and my decisions look clean. But the price gap has shrunk from around 0.08-0.10 to more like 0.04-0.05. Market is pricing this faster now. Keeping it active but scaling stakes down 15% and watching next 40 bets. If it stays flat, moving to watch list."
That's the tone. No drama, just checking the numbers and adjusting.
How to Tell When an Edge Is Actually Dead
Edges usually die in predictable ways. The market gets faster at pricing the condition. The league changes tactically. Teams adapt.Your price gap shrinks to almost nothing. You used to get 2.20 on something the market closes at 1.95, now you're getting 2.05 and it closes at 2.00. The outcomes start looking like a coin flip even when your process is clean. You're selecting the right matches, but variance isn't evening out the way it should over a real sample.
Or the condition that made the edge real becomes less relevant. Maybe teams don't rest players the same way anymore. Maybe a rule change affected how referees call certain fouls.
Another warning sign: if you find yourself writing longer and longer explanations to defend why an angle is still valid, that's usually the market telling you it's done. I did this with a set-piece angle in 2023. Started needing three extra conditions to make it "work" when it used to just be two simple ones. That was me trying to force a dead angle back to life.
Retired it in October, saved myself probably 30 bad bets.
The Traps That Ruin a Good Library
Pet angles are the biggest killer. You keep an idea active because it's "your thing" or because you've told people about it on the forum, not because it still pays.I had a corners angle I'd written about in 2021 that became part of my identity. Took me way too long to admit it had stopped working because I didn't want to look like I'd been wrong. That cost me maybe three months of marginal bets that were slowly bleeding money while I convinced myself it was just variance.
Overfitting stories is another one. You have a great run on something - maybe 8 wins out of 10 bets - and you turn it into a "system" before you have a real sample. Then you bet it 50 more times and it's completely neutral. That 8 out of 10 was just variance being kind to you early. The angle was never real, you just got lucky on the timing.
Boundary creep is subtle but deadly. You start with tight conditions, then slowly widen them because you want more opportunities. First it's "teams with 3 matches in 7 days," then it's "teams with 2 matches in 8 days," then it's "teams who look tired." By the time you notice, the angle has become meaningless because the conditions are so loose they apply to half the matches on the slate.
If an angle survives in your library only because you love it, not because the data says it's still working, it shouldn't be there. Anyway.
Actually Doing This Starting Today
Start a simple edge log. Google Sheets is fine, doesn't need to be fancy. Tag every bet you take for the next month with which angle you're applying.If you can't tag it to an angle, maybe you shouldn't be taking the bet. That's usually a sign you're betting for entertainment, not edge.
After 30 days, look at which angles got used most and which ones actually made money. You'll be surprised. The angle you think is your best might be break-even. The one you barely use might be quietly profitable. That information is gold because it tells you where to focus your energy.
This isn't complicated but it requires discipline. Most bettors won't do it because it feels like extra work. Those bettors will keep relying on memory and vibes while you're building something that compounds over time.
I didn't do this properly until 2021, three years into betting seriously. I look back at 2018-2020 and I know I was leaving money on the table just by not tracking this stuff correctly.
FAQ
How many angles should I actually keep active?Fewer than you think. I've got maybe 5-6 in my main library that I bet regularly, plus 3-4 on watch list that I'm testing at lower volume. If you're trying to juggle 15 different angles you're probably forcing most of them. Start with 3-4 you can apply consistently and build from there.
How do I know if an angle is expiring or just running cold?
Look at your CLV and price gaps over a real sample, not just wins and losses. If you're still getting good closing line value and the prices make sense, it's probably just variance. If your prices are shrinking and your CLV is fading, that's expiration. I track this every 50 bets or so for each angle.
What's the best way to retire an angle without getting emotional?
Move it to a watch list instead of deleting it completely. Reduce stakes by 50-75% and set a clear rule for when you'd bring it back - like "only reactivate if I see 20 bets with positive CLV and results over 3 months." This lets you keep monitoring without bleeding money if you're wrong about it being dead.
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