Betting on Games You're Watching vs Games You're Not Watching - Which is Better?

[CoachTony_Bets]

Had an interesting conversation with some of my coaching buddies last night and wanted to get everyone's take on this.
Do you bet differently on games you're actually watching versus games you're not watching? And more importantly - which approach gives you better results?
I'm talking about both pregame bets and live betting here.

Personally I've noticed that I tend to make more bets during games I'm watching, especially live bets. Sometimes that works out great because I'm seeing things the average bettor isn't picking up on. Other times I wonder if I'm just getting caught up in the moment.
What's your approach? Do you only bet games you can watch? Avoid betting games you're watching? Track your results differently?
Curious to hear everyone's experience with this.

 

[SharpEddie47]

This is actually a fascinating question and something I've tracked extensively over the years.
I ran the numbers on my own betting across three categories: games I watched live, games I checked scores periodically, and games I didn't watch at all until after they finished. Here's what I found over 2,000+ bets:


Games watched live: 51.2% win rate
Games checked periodically: 54.8% win rate
Games not watched: 57.1% win rate


Now before everyone jumps on me, I need to explain WHY this happens. It's not that watching games makes you worse at analysis. The problem is what watching does to your decision-making IN THE MOMENT.
When you're watching a game live you experience something called recency bias on steroids. Your team just scored twice in three minutes? Suddenly you think they're going to cover easily. QB threw an interception? Now you're convinced they're toast. But here's the thing - variance happens in every game. Small sample sizes during live action don't override the pregame analysis you did with full information.


My current system: I do my research and place my bets before games start. Then I either don't watch, or if I do watch, I've literally put a piece of tape over the live betting section of my app. Sounds crazy but it works.
The stats don't lie. My most profitable bets are the ones where I did the work beforehand and then walked away.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Wait Eddie you put TAPE over your phone??

Ok but real talk I am the WORST at this. Like I'll have my pregame bet and feel good about it, then I'm watching and something happens and I'm like "omg I need to hedge" or "omg I need to double down" and next thing you know I've placed like 4 live bets and I'm not even sure what I want to happen anymore lol

The games I don't watch? Yeah those usually just hit or don't and I move on. The games I AM watching turn into this whole emotional rollercoaster and I definitely make dumber bets.

BUT here's my counterpoint - the games I watch are WAY more fun! Like yeah maybe I lose a little more money but isn't that kinda the point? If I'm not watching the games then it's just like... checking scores on my phone? Where's the entertainment in that?

I pretty much only bet on games I'm planning to watch anyway. Otherwise what's even the point of sports betting?

 

[FadeThePublic]

Princess just described exactly what the sportsbooks want you to do. Bet emotionally while watching. They love it.
Here's what's really happening: when you watch a game, you're exposed to constant in-game variance that FEELS significant but statistically isn't. Three straight incompletions feels like the offense is broken. Two made three-pointers feels like a shooter is heating up. Neither thing is predictive of the next outcome, but your brain treats it like gospel.

Live betting is designed to exploit this. The books know that people watching games will react emotionally to small sample sizes. That's why live betting limits are usually lower than pregame - they know they have an edge on in-game action because bettors are compromised.
I actually do the opposite of most people. I ONLY bet games I'm not planning to watch. Here's my exact process:

1. Do my research during the day (line movement, sharp action, public percentages)
2. Place my bets 2-3 hours before tip-off
3. Don't watch the games at all
4. Check final scores in the morning

My win rate on these bets? Around 55% over three years. The few times I've broken this rule and watched games? Probably closer to 48%.
The eye test doesn't beat the math. It just makes you think you're smarter than you are.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Eddie and Fade both make good points about the emotional component, but I'm going to push back a little here.
As someone who's coached for 20+ years, I genuinely DO see things watching games that don't show up in box scores. I'm talking about:

• Offensive line getting pushed around (leads to rushed throws later)
• Defensive fatigue in the third quarter (especially in up-tempo games)
• Body language when a team is quitting on their coach
• Substitution patterns that signal injury or foul trouble

Do I think this gives me a massive edge? No. Eddie's probably right that the emotional factor outweighs the information advantage for most people.
But here's my personal compromise: I watch games WITHOUT my phone nearby. If I placed a pregame bet, that's it. I'm watching to enjoy and learn, not to make in-game decisions. The phone stays in another room.
If I haven't bet the game yet and I'm watching, I'll take mental notes but I don't place any bets until halftime at the earliest. Gives me time to separate what I'm seeing from how I'm feeling about it.

I think the real question isn't "watching vs not watching" but rather "can you watch WITHOUT letting emotions drive your betting decisions?" For most people the answer is probably no.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Tony you're talking about coaching analysis which is different than betting analysis. Yes you see those things, but the market has already priced most of that in. Here's a stat that might surprise people: According to a major sportsbook's internal data (this was leaked a few years back), live bettors have a 7% lower ROI than pregame bettors on average. Seven percent. That's MASSIVE over time.

Why? Because the book has algorithms adjusting lines in real-time based on actual game flow plus their own models, while you're sitting there reacting to what you just saw with your own eyes. You're always behind the curve.
The only people who consistently beat live betting are the ones with bot algorithms processing data faster than the books can adjust. Individual humans watching games? We don't have that edge.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Eddie is 100% right and here's proof: go look at Twitter during any primetime game. You'll see thousands of "live bet" posts from people reacting to what just happened. "Just hammered Team A live after that turnover!" or "Team B live ML is FREE MONEY after that touchdown!"
Those posts? The people making them are all losing long-term. Every single one.
You know who you don't see posting their live bets? Sharp bettors. Because sharp bettors aren't watching games and making reactive decisions.
RIP to everyone who's ever thought "I'm watching this game so I have an edge." No, you're watching this game so you have emotional investment. There's a difference.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Ok you guys are kinda making sense but you're also sucking all the fun out of this lol
Like yes I get it, watching games probably makes me bet worse. But also... I like watching football? And I like having action on games I'm watching? That's literally the whole reason I started sports betting in the first place!

I'm not trying to be a professional sharp bettor. I have a job. This is entertainment for me. So genuine question - is it really THAT bad to bet on games you're watching if you're keeping your stakes small and treating it as entertainment? Like yeah I'm probably not making optimal +EV decisions but I'm also having way more fun than if I just bet games and then checked scores the next morning.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Ok you guys are kinda making sense but you're also sucking all the fun out of this lol
Like yes I get it, watching games probably makes me bet worse. But also... I like watching football? And I like having action on games I'm watching? That's literally the whole reason I started sports betting in the first place!

I'm not trying to be a professional sharp bettor. I have a job. This is entertainment for me. So genuine question - is it really THAT bad to bet on games you're watching if you're keeping your stakes small and treating it as entertainment? Like yeah I'm probably not making optimal +EV decisions but I'm also having way more fun than if I just bet games and then checked scores the next morning.

Princess honestly that's a completely valid point and I think you're getting at something important here.

Not everyone has the same goals with sports betting. If your goal is entertainment and you're betting amounts you can afford to lose, then yeah - bet on games you're watching and enjoy yourself. Just be honest about what you're doing (entertainment) versus what sharp bettors are doing (treating it like investing).

The danger is when people THINK they're betting smart while watching games but they're actually betting emotionally. As long as you know which one you're doing, you're ahead of most bettors.

Personally, I bet smaller amounts on games I'm watching versus games I'm not, and I track them separately in my spreadsheet. That way I can see the real cost of my "entertainment bets" versus my "serious bets."

 

[SharpEddie47]

I actually agree with Tony here. If your goal is entertainment, watch and bet as much as you want. Just understand that it's going to cost you money over time compared to a more disciplined approach.
What drives me crazy is when people make entertainment bets, lose money, and then complain that "sports betting is rigged" or "you can't win long-term." No, YOU can't win long-term if you're betting emotionally while watching games.


But if you go in knowing it's entertainment and accepting the cost? That's fine. It's no different than paying for a concert ticket or a nice dinner.
Just don't confuse entertainment betting with profitable betting. They're two completely different activities.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Fair enough on the entertainment angle. I'm not here to tell people how to spend their money.
But here's what I WILL say: if you track your bets (which you should), split them into two categories:

1. Bets placed on games you plan to watch
2. Bets placed on games you won't watch

Track these separately for three months. I guarantee category 2 will have better ROI.
If you're cool with that and the entertainment is worth the cost difference, fine. But at least know what the cost IS.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Best ROI approach: Research thoroughly, bet pregame, don't watch or watch without phone access
Most entertaining approach: Bet games you're watching, accept lower ROI as cost of entertainment
Worst approach: Convince yourself you have an edge watching games when really you're just betting emotionally

Know which category you're in and bet accordingly.